Very slow progress in retaking territory, but Russia has been defeated. Only a matter of time before Ukraine’s gains become more and more compounded as attrition sets in and Russian supply lines continue to dwindle.
The biggest risk for Ukraine is fracturing support in the West and waning political will - which is what Putin is counting on and we’re already seeing some signs of.
But Ukraine has already objectively won the war based on the invasion’s goals - the only question is how much of their territory will they regain before a peace is negotiated and how long will it take to rebuild their economy.
I think the war will drag on for 2 more years or so personally, but others are more optimistic.