Search the Community

I'm sure everyone has seen that Russia has 100k troops amassed at the Ukrainian border, and US intel suspects they will invade in January. Blinken spent a couple days this week meeting with NATO ministers on a strategy forward. Belarus has mobilized their mechanized division on their border in support of Russian forces as well. The US is weighing sending in military advisors and weapons such as javelin anti tank missiles, mig choppers, missile defense systems, etc. and NATO is preparing a large sanctions package that will trigger if Russian forces invade (Like Putin gives a shit).

People need to understand why Taiwan is so important. This is also what the Chips and Science Act was all about. The CHIPS and Science Act is deeply tied to Taiwan because the entire strategy is really about one thing: Reducing U.S. dependence on Taiwanese semiconductor manufacturing, especially TSMC, in case of conflict or disruption involving China and Taiwan. The core issue is that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company manufactures the overwhelming majority of the world’s most advanced chips. Those chips power: AI systems NVIDIA GPUs Apple devices military systems cloud infrastructure advanced weapons data centers much of the global economy A serious disruption around Taiwan would likely trigger a massive global economic shock. So the CHIPS Act had several strategic goals: 1. Bring advanced chip production back to the U.S. The law allocated roughly $52–53 billion in incentives for domestic semiconductor manufacturing and R&D. That led to: TSMC building giant fabs in Arizona Intel expanding in Ohio and Arizona Samsung expanding in Texas packaging and supply-chain investments across the U.S. TSMC alone received up to $6.6B in direct CHIPS funding for Arizona fabs. 2. Create a “Taiwan backup plan” The U.S. does not currently believe it can fully replace Taiwan’s chip ecosystem anytime soon. Even optimistic projections still leave Taiwan dominant in advanced nodes. Some reporting suggests even after massive Arizona expansion, only around 30% of TSMC’s leading-edge production may be in the U.S. by the 2030s. The goal is more: partial redundancy strategic resilience military/economic continuity less catastrophic failure if Taiwan is blockaded or invaded 3. Strengthen U.S.–Taiwan strategic alignment Ironically, the CHIPS Act both: reduces dependence on Taiwan and ties Taiwan more closely to the U.S. Taiwanese companies are now investing enormous amounts into U.S. manufacturing. That creates: shared economic interests political alignment supply-chain integration stronger deterrence against China 4. Counter China’s semiconductor ambitions The U.S. increasingly sees semiconductor dominance as a national security issue, not just an economic one. Advanced chips are essential for: AI missile guidance surveillance cyberwarfare autonomous systems supercomputing So the strategy became: subsidize domestic production restrict China’s access to advanced chips and lithography diversify supply chains away from a single geographic choke point The big underlying reality Taiwan’s semiconductor ecosystem is extraordinarily difficult to replicate. TSMC is not just “a factory.” It’s: decades of engineering culture supplier ecosystems ultra-specialized labor precision manufacturing knowledge deep integration with companies like ASML, Apple, NVIDIA, AMD That’s why Arizona fabs have faced: labor shortages delays visa issues infrastructure problems cultural/process differences compared to Taiwan The U.S. can build fabs relatively quickly with enough money. Building the full ecosystem is much harder. So strategically, the CHIPS Act is really: “We cannot allow the entire advanced computing economy to depend on one island 100 miles from China.” That is the geopolitical heart of the law. So if Trump weakens the Chips and Science Act to "stick it to Biden" AND abandons Taiwan... that's a huge problem.

Yesterday, US Jets were scrambled against Russian aircraft entering Alaskan airspace. Additionally, several more airports were shut down in Denmark due to unknown drones hovering around sensitive military installations. Denmark is considering invoking NATO Article 4. Poland is making military preparations to not only shoot down Russian aircraft that violate its airpsace, but to shoot down Russian air threats over Ukraine. Russia is getting really desperate because their entire economy is on the brink of collapse - I am not sure that the Federation will last another year without something changing. I believe Putin would rather lose to NATO than to Ukraine, and he is poking the bear. Of course, per the Financial Times - Putin was convinced during the Alaska summit that Trump would not intervene on behalf of Europe - so his actions are becoming more bold.