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About Pragidealist

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  1. I don't think anyone knows what the impact of these tariffs will be. Its what many of the Trump voters wanted- blow it up and see what happens. That is basically what this is. There is a trade deficit. It is unclear what makes this bad. There are lots of possibilities. Taking advantage of cheap laborers elsewhere. Creating an environment where domestic companies can't compete as well due to requirements of working conditions. US is basically fine with poor working conditions out of country but find them abhorrent locally. This could mean we shift the trade deficit from china to other countries. There are plenty of countries out there that will make "stuff" for us. The US is not getting lowering its labor standards anytime soon. People and companies are still going to shift to the lowest cost globally. That can't happen fast. Most of these imports are bought by a large company- not individual consumers. Individual consumers can change spending habits pretty quickly. Companies have contracts for goods. This likely starts with an increase in price. This will hit those Companies. Then those companies will shift their suppliers or their production warehouses to new countries that are not China. It will it consumers pretty quickly as the companies doing the importing will have to increase their costs to pay for the tariffs. So goods from China speicifically will get more expensive. Who do they compete with? I honestly don't know. It likely just shifts to the next cheapest which is still likely not American It will impact China. I think I saw an estimate of 2% of their GDP will be affected in the short term. If you're Trump or a Trump supporter, maybe that's a good thing for. You get to hurt someone you see as a boogie man. Will it dramatically effect their economy or their stance in teh world or their leaders- highly unlikely. In the meantime, the retribution will hurt-- As exporters lose business. They also lose long term business that is likley not easily to replace. Its a mess. Will it come to any good? Who knows? Its just shaking things up and seeing what falls out. In the meantime, it will hurt people and has a risk to significantly hurt the US economy and China's economy long term. It will hurt laborers in China and farmers in the US. I haven't seen anyone but Trump and his loyalist spin this as definite good thing. I also don't think anyone knows how bad it will be. Its just too complicated. It may be huge and it may be a blip.
  2. The threat of Trump continuing to abuse power against any rival is real. But the truest course of action is vote him out. His approval is dismal in a time of great economic growth. The electoral calculus looks just as bad for him this this time around as it did before and he doesn't have generations of investigations and GOP propoganda to taint the demo candidate as they did last time. Trump is more likely to hang himself just as he did with the shutdown. The trade war is looking like another example. Even if he could negotiate a miracle deal, it wouldn't likely help the farmers he needs to vote for him. The dem strategy seems to be let the idiot hang himself. Its not inspirational but its intelligent. Trump's core supporters without Hillary, can't likely win the election. The dems are taking a "run" out the clock strategy rather than going for running up the score. We're Titans fans. We know what that could mean and its a bit scary, but its not a idiotic plan. It is the type of long term, slow thinking you'd expect with the age and experience of those in power. Its also likely that with economic growth and no new wars popping up, most people just want stability and its less likely a revolution approach would be effective. At this point, we are all just hoping we can get to the election without the idiot creating a catastrophe and then hoping the damage he is doing isn't permanent.
  3. Yep- Foreign governments try to score points with anyone in power. With the Clintons it went to a charity that has been investigated and nothing found. Trump foundation was a fraud before he was even president. Luckily though- the GOP and his base don't really care. So they can be more obvious about it by spending money at his hotel and resorts. Its got to be such a relief to those foreign governments to know their bribes are actually getting through to the candidate they are buying instead of getting stuck in a charity somewhere ... benefiting causes they hate in their own country.
  4. I do like Warren’s policy mind and it’s a good area for her to push on
  5. Sheesh after Nixon, Bush, and Trump- no wonder you guys love Reagan so much. I'd take Reagan as my standard bearer too when your other choices are crook, idiot, or idiot-crook. To be honest, I'll take another Reagan if you guys will stop nominating and electing idiots and crooks.
  6. To be clear, you're opinion doesn't matter that much on the question of character voting. It's obviously not something you value.
  7. I agree with you on Obama being better with more time in the Senate or a cabinet post. He grew a lot in his first term and learned a lot. He also had the benefit of dem control over both the Senate and house at the time to help with that learning curve. Buttigieg- I really like him. I am concerned about his general election appeal as a first game candidate with a spouse at every event. I want to think we've moved passed those issues, but all of the Obama racism issues show that we are not. Will it only be the fringe that care- voters that wouldn't vote for a dem anyway? or are there lots of moderates who silently wouldn't support him. The biggest concern with him right now is his experience running a national campaign. https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/politics/ct-pete-buttigieg-2020-campaign-20190422-story.html " And his campaign manager is a high school friend with no experience in presidential politics." That is really concerning for me. Its the big leagues in a hurry. I worry about Biden's penchent for saying the wrong thing, ability to appeal to the progressive side of politics, and his long history in the public arena that can be attacked. He's run multiple national campaign's and has not shown the ability to win those without Obama. That is concerning. But those two are definitely at the top of my list.
  8. Pete could also use some experience in the national spotlight and on a national campaign. Obama was very inexperienced but was on the national stage for a good bit of time before the primaries.
  9. Short hand is that I wonder if it becomes an election about Character. I think that is probably the best way to go at Trump. The difficulty is surviving a primary and national election with all the attacks, propaganda, and triblalism with an image of strong character intact. If a candidate can do that... it would seem a good approach.
  10. The idea of a christian right rally against LGBTQ and for Trump is just bizarro - but yeah, it could happen.
  11. How close will the next presidential election be to a Jimmy Carter election? Carter was elected after Nixon resigned. Carter was a "washington outsider" who promised to clean up Washington. He was a moderate candidate that was mostly a "good guy" to come after the Nixon taint. I look at how Biden has opened his campaign around saving democracy and saving the US and the world from Trump and I look at Mayor's Pete's decision to talk about values and principles over policies. The place where Trump is the weakest are on issues of values, honesty, ethics and principle. You could say that's even Bernie's method though he is more about ideological. There are lots of differences. The obvious is that Trump won't resign like that. So Carter never actually campaigned directly against Nixon but someone with some distance from the scandals. The electorate seems to vote in opposites when they want in change. Obama's intelligence followed Bush. Trump - low iq and crassness contrasted Obama. The best contrast to Trump would be one of moral principle- a "good guy" that reflects Trumps nature back on him by his very presence rather than direct confrontation to every slight. Pete's intelligence and calmness is a good contrast. Biden has a "man of the people" image. I think Booker tries that with his love vs hate but comes across hokey. Bernie is a contrast of ideology. He doesn't highlight character contrasts. I think this election will be about who can come out of the attacks, campaigning, etc with the highest character marks. Biden has already been smeared there before. We'll see if he can stand through it. I think Warren's style doesn't fit that- though is trying to be one to fight for ideals. I don't think it comes across the same. The candidate that reminds me the most of Jimmy Carter is Pete. Moderate, calm presence that often evokes religion and focuses on values over policies. My biggest concern with him right now is his ability to handle the big stage and a national campaign for the first time. Thoughts?
  12. I don't know about smartest but she's the biggest policy wonk running for sure.
  13. I don't because they see a false equivalency to it.
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