Derrick Henry is still an elite back.

[titanruss]

8 minutes ago, Titans279 said:

Why is this board always wrong about everything? Henry isn't elite and he isn't washed. He's still pretty good though. Spears is getting slightly more yard over expected averaged per carry, but he's way more boom or bust (a smaller percentage of Spears' carries are "over expected"). The ones that are over are way over expected, but a lot of them aren't.

 

 

It's less than a foot more. .. and spears doesn't run the ball %50 of the time he's in the game... nor in short yardage / goal line
 

If Henry hits 1 run for 40 then he's back ahead and that includes a stat like this that penalizes short yardage runs. 

[titanruss]

The hope is spears is actually more boom than he has been. 
 

When put in like a traditional back without Henry, his ypc suffers. 

[Mythos27]

45 minutes ago, BudsOilers said:

Of course, trying to claim an 8% difference in runs over expected is massive when Spears gets an average of 5.5 carries/game whereas Henrt has 3 times that per game illustrates a complete lack of understanding of statistical significance.   

 

Now Spears may in fact be a boom/bust guy with more chances or he could bleed into good.  We'll eventually find out.

 

 

Spears is damn good and I don't think he's boom or bust. The numbers are what they are because despite people wanting to deny it (we all know why), this line allows backs to get hit in the backfield too often and our tendencies don't help. The only thing wrong with Spears, is that people who've had an axe to grind with Henry use Spears as a path to attacking Henry some more while pretending they simply want "what's best for the team". It's transparent and annoying. 

[titanruss]

5 minutes ago, Mythos27 said:

Spears is damn good and I don't think he's boom or bust. The numbers are what they are because despite people wanting to deny it (we all know why), this line allows backs to get hit in the backfield too often and our tendencies don't help. The only thing wrong with Spears, is that people who've had an axe to grind with Henry use Spears as a path to attacking Henry some more while pretending they simply want "what's best for the team". It's transparent and annoying. 

 

There's also some unfounded hope/belief that if Henry is gone we all of a sudden run a modern offense.

[BudsOilers]

4 minutes ago, Mythos27 said:

Spears is damn good and I don't think he's boom or bust. The numbers are what they are because despite people wanting to deny it (we all know why), this line allows backs to get hit in the backfield too often and our tendencies don't help. The only thing wrong with Spears, is that people who've had an axe to grind with Henry use Spears as a path to attacking Henry some more while pretending they simply want "what's best for the team". It's transparent and annoying. 

I think Spears creates more of his yards and doesn't necessarily need as dominant a blocking effort than Henry does from the eye test.  The carries should be more evenly distributed IMO but the coaches - mainly Vrabel - believe that Henry requires more carries to be effective with the old "wear down the defense".  Something that was a 2019/2020 thing but we really don't see that anymore.  

 

What's totally unproven about Spears is whether he can be a main back in the NFL with more volume.  

 

 

[Mythos27]

1 minute ago, titanruss said:

 

There's also some unfounded hope/belief that if Henry is gone we all of a sudden run a modern offense.

Right. The less extreme people do genuinely believe that. I'm doubtful both that Henry is the limiting factor in the first place and that his removal would solve anything. I do however think that Spears can more than adequately take over if we decide not to bring Henry back. His durability will be a question mark and he's honestly not a very good receiver (it's hilarious how they choose to overlook that) but aside from that he's really that good. 

[titanruss]

Spears can probably make more out of nothing but doesn't seem to get any more - and possibly less - yards when decently blocked. It's one of those things where his quickness can look more electric but doesn't actually add up in the end because when contact occurs, he's not getting further downfield or falling forward as much.

[BudsOilers]

I do agree that the Henry falling forward stuff always seems to be worth a yard here and there.  What looks like a 3 yard game is 4 or 5.  Of course those are usually the 2nd and 10 carries.....

[titanruss]

Just now, Mythos27 said:

Right. The less extreme people do genuinely believe that. I'm doubtful both that Henry is the limiting factor in the first place and that his removal would solve anything. I do however think that Spears can more than adequately take over if we decide not to bring Henry back. His durability will be a question mark and he's honestly not a very good receiver (it's hilarious how they choose to overlook that) but aside from that he's really that good. 

 

I pointed out earlier in the year that the receiver bit doesn't add up. He supposedly can run more routes and make us more multiple in pass sets - but unless it's actually working, it's pointless. It's not working, including his pass blocking.

 

It's almost sacrilege here to say Henry needs more 3rd down snaps, but he does. These guys should have more of an even swap on those downs... or be on the field together. Sure, put Henry in on short yardage a tick more and spears in on 3rd and 7+ a bit more. But 3rd and 5? It's silly to take Henry off the field so often. Pressure gets to Levis quicker with Spears in and when he chips its too late to flare out. His positive presence is eliminated unless he's immediately running routes.

[Mythos27]

11 minutes ago, BudsOilers said:

I think Spears creates more of his yards and doesn't necessarily need as dominant a blocking effort than Henry does from the eye test.  The carries should be more evenly distributed IMO but the coaches - mainly Vrabel - believe that Henry requires more carries to be effective with the old "wear down the defense".  Something that was a 2019/2020 thing but we really don't see that anymore.  

 

What's totally unproven about Spears is whether he can be a main back in the NFL with more volume.  

 

 

Thinking that Spears is better than Henry is a valid opinion. I'm not there yet personally. But it's a valid take. He's dynamic as all hell and has that dog in him. It's all the other over the top bullshit about Henry sucking that's annoying. We can have these conversations without hyperbole and narrative-humping from the usual suspects. 

[Mythos27]

3 minutes ago, titanruss said:

 

I pointed out earlier in the year that the receiver bit doesn't add up. He supposedly can run more routes and make us more multiple in pass sets - but unless it's actually working, it's pointless. It's not working, including his pass blocking.

 

It's almost sacrilege here to say Henry needs more 3rd down snaps, but he does. These guys should have more of an even swap on those downs... or be on the field together. Sure, put Henry in on short yardage a tick more and spears in on 3rd and 7+ a bit more. But 3rd and 5? It's silly to take Henry off the field so often. Pressure gets to Levis quicker with Spears in and when he chips its too late to flare out. His positive presence is eliminated unless he's immediately running routes.

I'm all for a true 50/50 split if it means more Spears on 1st and 2nd and more Henry on third. This past week I noticed we gave Spears a decent amount of 1st down carries and was encouraged by that.  And yeah, you seem to have been right about him in the passing game. I assumed his skill set would translate but I just don't think he has the ball skills. He's crazy dangerous in space though and we need to scheme more to that outside of bullshit screens we suck at executing.

Edited December 5, 2023 by Mythos27

[titanruss]

1 minute ago, Mythos27 said:

I'm all for a true 50/50 split if it means more Spears on 1st and 2nd and more Henry on third. This past week I noticed we gave Spears a decent amount of 1st down carries and was encouraged by that. 

 

Pre Henry injury?

[Mythos27]

2 minutes ago, titanruss said:

 

Pre Henry injury?

IIRC, yes. 

[BudsOilers]

The screen game is maddening,  For every big one they hit, they have 5 or 6 that bomb.

 

Sadly, the high throw Levis made in OT on the screen that Spears couldn't catch was very likely a TD if the throw was on target.  Brewer and Radunz were out in front and he either scores or gets damn close....

[wiscotitansfan]

6 minutes ago, Mythos27 said:

IIRC, yes. 

I watched the game on my phone from the side of a pool on vacation so wasn’t paying as much attention but I just don’t see how that’s possible with how many touches Henry got in the first half