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About charleytolar

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    The Human Cannonball

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  1. Why does your anecdote count as data but mine does not? 🤣
  2. What can you prove? Nothing. The most certain evidence is that more tries gets you more wins... within reason. The deck IS stacked. There is no certainty but you wouldn't want to give up your 1st selection for a bunch of 4ths just to have more picks. The draft is an educated guess.
  3. Just for the fun of it, I scanned the draft day trades of first-rounders. Here is what I gathered the 7th pick for the 12th the 10th for the 15th the 14th for the 27th and 2019 1st (Marcus Davenport) the 16th for the 22nd the 18th for the 27th the 22nd for the 25th (Titans) Most of these also cost the moving up team a mid-round selection. Obviously a sacrificed draft selection can have no impact.
  4. So you ignore the MATH RULES theory and you belittle the anecdotal evidence? Sorry but I don't have the time to review every trade up or trade down scenario in NFL history. I just showed you that our most recent sortie into that world cost us valuable depth on the roster. I think we moved up for Taywan Taylor when we could have stayed put and had the Godwin kid from Penn State. If I ever pursue a PhD, I'll see if I can make this my thesis!
  5. In fact, this proves my point. Having more picks is likely to make your team better... as long as you don't trade your 1st for two 4ths and a 5th and that kind of stupidity.
  6. This is low-hanging fruit but we could have not moved up for Rashaan Evans (Round 1, Pick 22) and nabbed Darius Leonard instead (Round 2, Pick 36) and with the lost 4-125 pick we could have gotten the speed RB Chase Edmonds. The decision to move up for Harold Landry might have been more certain, but with our original picks we could have gotten DJ Chark at 2-57 and OLB Fred Warner at 3-89. Might we be better with Leonard, Edmonds, Chark and Warner on the roster? Of course, we'll never know but Leonard taken after Evans might end up being the better player (there goes one theory) and two quality players like Edmonds and Warner improve our depth (that pesky Math).
  7. I've proven that you don't have to move up to get a better player. NOT moving up costs you nothing. You guys only cite the occasions where it seems to have worked and ignored the times it backfired-- DOUBLY. It's the math inherent in the concept. If judgment is going to be occasionally wrong, doesn't it just make sense to have more shots at being right? Oh, and I never said never move up. I am critical of doing it regularly and J-Rob has been wont to do it regularly. Overall it is probably better if we never do it because that player you fall in love with and sacrifice a pick for may not work out. How can you even argue with that?
  8. BTW, I looked at that draft and there were 7 other Edge players taken between the Titan original 2-54 pick and Arden Key so you are guilty of just twisting the argument in a desperate attempt to what.... win?
  9. Only one path is double-costly: the under-performing player and the sacrificed 2nd or 3rd round pick. Third-round safety Byard has out-performed safeties taken in Rounds 1 and 2 of the draft. Knowing that there are going to be mis-judgments in talent is the very reason not to have fewer selections on a regular basis. It's math.
  10. You can skew the discussion to your satisfaction if it makes you feel better...
  11. Like Justin Hunter or DGB or Taywan Taylor? You can't just talk about the times it has worked. You have to look at the overall record or you're being dishonest. Sixth-round pick (?) Tajae Sharpe is better than all of them.
  12. "You can't handle the truth!!" You guys don't even engage the discussion. I guess you just can't.
  13. Hurts has exceeded both Mayfield and Murray in passing stats for the season. Yes, he is sturdy but he does throw downfield. He has a bit of Russell Wilson in him.
  14. I'm advocating staying put with selective trades UP or DOWN. Most of those solid contributors came out of that decision. And you THINK you get a lesser quality player... or we wouldn't be talking about Justin Hunter, DGB, Bishop Sankey, Kevin Dudd, and many others. What do you notice about this promising group? 1-19 Jeffery Simmons 2-51 A.J. Brown 3-82 Nate Davis 4-116 Amani Hooker 5-168 D'Andre Walker 6-188 David Long
  15. The fault in your logic is that the label "star" or "mediocre" on draft day is just a pre-judgement. Everybody gets some wrong. Shall we make a list for the Titans? Having more shots at it gives you a greater likelihood of getting impact players. Kevin Byard, Jonnu Smith, Jayon Brown, David Long, Wesley Woodyard, Amani Hooker, Sharif Finch, Dane Cruikshank, Adam Humphries, Leshaun Sims, Ben Jones, DaQuan Jones, Isaiah Mack, Tajae Sharp, and Joshua Kalu were taken Third Round or later I do believe. Who is more "high impact" then Byard and Jayon-- especially for the cost? Some of those others appear to be coming on... The job of the GM is to maximize every pick and balance the roster. Sacrificing premium picks to grab a "favorite" seems to fail as often as it succeeds and the numbers don't support that as a "long-term" strategy. We seem to do it every draft day.