TheBukafax Posted October 15, 2024 Report Share Posted October 15, 2024 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Thrill said: The 49ers haven’t employed the constant trade downs, but they’ve used a bunch of different strategies to accumulate a metric shit ton of mid round picks. Tre Greenlaw and George Kittles were 5th rounders and we all know Purdy was the last pick of the draft. That purdy pick saved them for their major blunder in Lance. Edited October 15, 2024 by TheBukafax No1TitansFan, BigGambino, and Mythos27 3 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrill Posted October 15, 2024 Report Share Posted October 15, 2024 2 minutes ago, TheBukafax said: That purdy pick saved them for their major blunder in Lance. Yes but they were still making the Super Bowl with Jimmy G because they hit on some of these lottery picks. Good scouting and more swings at the bat is the key in later rounds. Rarely do teams get a bunch of high draft picks without doing a full rebuild or without having a stacked roster where they can afford to trade valuable pieces. TheBukafax 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldschool Posted October 15, 2024 Report Share Posted October 15, 2024 4 minutes ago, Thrill said: The 49ers haven’t employed the constant trade downs, but they’ve used a bunch of different strategies to accumulate a metric shit ton of mid round picks. Tre Greenlaw and George Kittles were 5th rounders and we all know Purdy was the last pick of the draft. Now look at their 5th-7th rounders for the entire duration of the Lynch/Shanny era. The 49ers are simply better at hitting later in the draft than most teams but the hite rate is still extremely low as shown in the links I posted earlier. That doesn't mean teams should trade down and accumulate lottery tickets which is essentially what 5th-7th rounders are. Thrill 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrill Posted October 15, 2024 Report Share Posted October 15, 2024 The real question is should we fully punt on this roster and see if we can get a first for Simmons either this year or next? He’s essentially our only player with any value who’s not on a rookie contract. He’s very good but injury prone and maybe a bit overpaid. Also not exactly in our competitive window at this point. oldschool 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldschool Posted October 15, 2024 Report Share Posted October 15, 2024 Just now, Thrill said: The real question is should we fully punt on this roster and see if we can get a first for Simmons either this year or next? He’s essentially our only player with any value who’s not on a rookie contract. He’s very good but injury prone and maybe a bit overpaid. Also not exactly in our competitive window at this point. No. you don't trade a star interior DT. Its the NFL, teams can go from bad to playoff contention in a year. Not to mention I'd argue the roster is not bad, QB is holding it back. They have holes like all teams do. DCTitan 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Titans279 Posted October 15, 2024 Report Share Posted October 15, 2024 Imagine the morale in the locker room if they keep trotting out Levis and have a fire sale lol. titanskick8851, DCTitan, and Supernope 1 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Callidus Posted October 15, 2024 Report Share Posted October 15, 2024 39 minutes ago, Thrill said: The real question is should we fully punt on this roster and see if we can get a first for Simmons either this year or next? He’s essentially our only player with any value who’s not on a rookie contract. He’s very good but injury prone and maybe a bit overpaid. Also not exactly in our competitive window at this point. Not unless you get an absolute ransom. And you better be right. Because even if you get 2 firsts for him if he goes all pro the next 3 years your covered in pie again. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsntLifeFunny Posted October 15, 2024 Report Share Posted October 15, 2024 3 hours ago, oldschool said: Great now look at the overall numbers going back 20 years. There of course outliers but the vast majority of 5th-7th round picks last 2-3 years tops and never see a 2nd contract. But they fill up the roster and hopefully develop to bring you compensatory picks. That's how the good teams do it. Thrill, and Callidus 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldschool Posted October 15, 2024 Report Share Posted October 15, 2024 3 minutes ago, IsntLifeFunny said: But they fill up the roster and hopefully develop to bring you compensatory picks. That's how the good teams do it. The data I posted factors in length of time in the NFL and 2nd contracts that are handed out. The evidence shows the vast majority of guys taken 5th or later are out of the league in 2 years. rns90 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsntLifeFunny Posted October 15, 2024 Report Share Posted October 15, 2024 1 minute ago, oldschool said: The data I posted factors in length of time in the NFL and 2nd contracts that are handed out. The evidence shows the vast majority of guys taken 5th or later are out of the league in 2 years. I guess I'm not understanding your argument then. I'm not talking about trading back to get more picks. I'm talking about trading players on a broken team to get more assets. Now those assets may be overvalued, but the player being on the team right now who won't be in the near future before we have a window aren't either. The draft picks are assets even if marginal ones. Callidus, and Thrill 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldschool Posted October 15, 2024 Report Share Posted October 15, 2024 (edited) 21 minutes ago, IsntLifeFunny said: I guess I'm not understanding your argument then. I'm not talking about trading back to get more picks. I'm talking about trading players on a broken team to get more assets. Now those assets may be overvalued, but the player being on the team right now who won't be in the near future before we have a window aren't either. The draft picks are assets even if marginal ones. It depends. For example, is a 6th that statistically has a very slim chance of hitting worth getting rid of Hopkins and hampering Levis development. This example assumes Levis isn't already a lost cause which you know my stance on. Why trade Diggs for a 6th when he's been very good and may be in consideration for another short 1 or 2 year deal with an out? You remove any chance of keeping a known vet who is playing well for a lottery ticket? Obviously I'm not saying teams should never trade vets for late round picks but this idea teams should flood the zone isn't supported by data. Edited October 15, 2024 by oldschool IsntLifeFunny 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
rns90 Posted October 15, 2024 Report Share Posted October 15, 2024 3 minutes ago, IsntLifeFunny said: I guess I'm not understanding your argument then. I'm not talking about trading back to get more picks. I'm talking about trading players on a broken team to get more assets. Now those assets may be overvalued, but the player being on the team right now who won't be in the near future before we have a window aren't either. The draft picks are assets even if marginal ones. I don’t think anyone is objecting to this if the player isn’t part of your long term future. But the argument that 5th-7th round guys will be some sort of asset is overstated. By assest I mean you can regularly draft starters with those picks. The hit rate is pretty low. I do think that they are undervalued in terms of trading them for starting level players though. That would be one reason I would stock up on them. IsntLifeFunny, Thrill, and oldschool 3 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mythos27 Posted October 15, 2024 Report Share Posted October 15, 2024 Not trading Henry last year was dumb as fuck. Who is this year's version of Henry that we can move? Is any situation on the team comparable to that? Thrill, headhunter, and IsntLifeFunny 3 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Titans279 Posted October 15, 2024 Report Share Posted October 15, 2024 Why is there a long debate about if it's good to trade a player you don't expect to get anything/much out of for a late round pick? That's how you know the season is going bad lol. Offseason tier arguments Thrill, and IsntLifeFunny 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
rns90 Posted October 15, 2024 Report Share Posted October 15, 2024 6 minutes ago, Mythos27 said: Not trading Henry last year was dumb as fuck. Who is this year's version of Henry that we can move? Is any situation on the team comparable to that? Depends on what one thinks of Hopkins value. No one else (impending FA) has much value outside of 6th and 7ths. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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