EXPERT ANALYSIS OILERMAN BLOG: Free Agency

[OILERMAN]

NFL free agency starts March 11th at 3:00 PM Central and NFL fans will be watching twitter and NFL Network to see the latest rumors about who their team might sign or host on a free agent visit. NFL GMs will start throwing out crazy money minutes after free agency starts and get into bidding wars over the biggest names on the market. All of this despite the fact it's been going on for 20 years now and it's almost a certainty it's going to be a complete failure.

Last off season the Titans came out of the gate and paid guard Andy Levitre 6 years 46.8 mill with a 10.5 million dollar signing bonus. After one season that signing has to objectively be graded as a failure. Levitre said he played injured and struggled much of the year and was often on replays for what he did wrong rather than what he did right. The Titans also signed guard/center Chris Spencer to the league minimum on a one year deal. Spencer only started one game but in limited action he was a solid starter who looked better than the big money guard Levitre. I can give the exact same example with Sammie Hill vs. Antonio "Mookie" Johnson. Two off seasons back it was Kamerion Wimbley, free agent bust.

I could fill this page ten times over listing examples like this for every team over the last 20 years and would struggle to name the times it has worked out over the same 20 year period. This past season the Seattle Seahawks won the SB and their two biggest cap hits were TE Zach Miller and WR Sidney Rice, two big name free agent additions signed to monster contracts. Rice had 15 catches and Miller had 33 and neither guy cracked 400 yards receiving. They likely had no impact on the Seahawks SB run at all.

I believe that once an NFL player gets the monetary security they all seek it's almost impossible to work as hard and play with the reckless abandon they did in order to get the money. The NFL is a violent game and it's human nature to relax and self preserve after getting paid millions of dollars. Look at the extreme example of Albert Haynesworth and compare his two seasons under the franchise tag seeking a big money contract to the player after the huge contract.

So the question is what is the best route for a team(Titans) to go concerning free agency and building a roster? I've given this a lot of thought and I think there is a route that makes the most sense. The goal is to get players who are going to put worth maximum effort and give the best return on a teams investment. Who should the target be?

Teams are currently purging their rosters of overpaid vets to get below the cap and to get rid of under performing aging players. This is the pool of players I'm targeting. There are so many pluses to the 30+ veteran NFL player on the open market to like. These guys are often still good enough to contribute, they are savvy vets who have seen it all in many schemes, they can get by on the limited practice reps allowed by the new CBA and they are often playing for their NFL life. Bernard Pollard was caught on the edge of his NFL career trying to prove he was still worthy of an NFL starting job and he wasn't paid enough money by NFL standards to relax. Even if a guy like this doesn't work out it's a one year deal and he's gone after the season with no dead money against your cap. Also with advancements in diet and training 30+ isn't nearly as old as it was 10-20 years ago.

I think the best strategy for the Titans is to clean up their own cap and get rid of all the overpaid dead weight. Chris Johnson, David Stewart, Wimbley and Stevens all get the axe and if Nate Washington doesn't take a large pay cut he's cut as well. I want as much cap space as possible going into free agency as possible. This would give the Titans a very large amount of cap space and this is what I'd do to put it to use. I'd tag Verner first thing. Whether he's actually worth the money isn't the issue, the issue is you are putting a young player in position to give maximum effort in order to work himself into a large multi-year contract, see Albert Haynesworth. Always dangle the carrot in front of the player you sign or tag. You are also required to spend a certain % of the cap by the new CBA and this helps with that.

The only players I'm signing to big money contract for multiple seasons are my own, Jurrell Casey. Signing your own players has a much better history than free agents. I'm totally ignoring the first wave of NFL free agents but there are going to be deals before free agency starts. There are guys getting cut right now and I'm all for signing a guy like George Wilson last year. These guys are often desperate to get on a team before free agency/draft begins. You don't want to be left without a chair after the music stops.

The formula is very simple. Load up on draft picks and build your team through the draft, sign your own core players and then fill out your roster with cheap veterans who can be dumped and replaced yearly with no cap ramifications. Also use the franchise tag on any player worth keeping who is on the verge of a big money contract. The truth is teams have a large yearly turnover anyway so the only change is I want my roster full of 30+ year veterans instead of a bunch of 1st and 2nd players. Would you rather have a middle of the road 30 year old veteran like Mookie Johnson or Zach Clayton?

It might be boring and not provide the excitement a big named free agent would cause but it's likely a much better blueprint.

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[Bobo]

I get afraid when we sign FA's to fairly large contracts that it will discourage us from drafting at those positions. I'm all for mostly building through the draft and signing your best to long term contracts. I'm curious to see how things turn out with Tommie boy. Was last year's big spending more about desperation with an aging owner?

[TeamRamrod]

Gonna have to disagree with the Levitre signing being a failure

[CMJ]

Same here.

[Frank Andbeans]

Difference makers don't usually make it to FA.  And when they do, there is a whole lot of risk involved in transferring to a new scheme.

 

I think the years have shown its best to look for quantity in FA rather than pay for quality.  FA is a good place to plug roster holes so your not pigeonholed in the draft.  This year, if we lose Verner, we should try to sign a guy for competition (Greer is a good fit in terms of ability and where he is in his career).  We should look to add guys at ILB and OT as well (maybe a S too).

 

 

Gonna have to disagree with the Levitre signing being a failure

 

So far it is.  He was bad last year.  It's likely he rebounds this year but that remains to be seen.

[Guest]

How could the Levitre signing not be seen as a failure? Please lay out that rationale for me. 

[Guest]

Levitre had a bum knee in Buffalo and they knew it and it;'s part of why they let him go...and it caused him problems last year with us. 

 

Even if he was 100% healthy we need to learn you don't outpay the league on open market guards without it coming back to bite you in the ass. Pillar, Olsen, Hutch, Warbust, Levitre, Amano….at some point you have to learn people. You can;t be throwing these kind of resources at guard and when you do you better get value and we never do. 

[Righteous]

Let's no pretend that Seattle didn't make a splash in the offseason as well.  First of all, they traded multiple picks and signed Percy Harvin to a monster contract (6 years $67M and $12 Mil signing bonus).  They also signed Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett.  Let's face it, the Seattle Seahawks were a more talented team before the FA signing than the Titans.  What you want to do is increase the talent on your team and whether it's through FA or the draft, that should be the goal.  Seattle hit on a lot of draft picks, but they also brought in outside talent (Marshawn Lynch being one of them).  There is no easy or right way to build a champion.  It requires a lot of luck.

 

To suggest that players will be better because they are cheaper, were drafted by us, and hence, have more incentive to play hard, is a sure fire way to lose in this league.  That makes about just as much sense as thinking if you pay them alot, they will become All Pro's.

Edited February 27, 2014 by Righteous

[Tim]

Too early to judge Levitre and Warmack. They may be busts for us but they may help us reach the playoffs in the next couple years. I know this, veteran QB's, even the great ones, are more rattled by inside pressure than outside pressure in todays NFL.

[titanruss]

How could the Levitre signing not be seen as a failure? Please lay out that rationale for me. 

 

Because he got better and better as the season progressed... into rating as our top OL guy by the end of the year. It takes a while for OL to gel or get used to a new team, add in the injury  and he was more delayed. But by the end of the year he was top notch. 

 

 

as for the OP, Wimbley and Washington are going nowhere. I don't mind the rest of the strategy too much but I still think you can sign a young "name" player if the fit and money is right. 

[TeamRamrod]

Did we overpay for Levitre? Yes. That doesn't make the signing a failure lol it's NFL free agency, everyone's overpaid. That's the nature of the beast. Levitre played much better than a lot of this board likes to give him credit for for whatever reason.

I also find the inherent pessimism on here comical. ONE YEAR IN AND DIS GUY SAWKS FOREVER HURBURDURBBURR lol give me a break

Edited February 27, 2014 by TeamRamrod27

[Number9]

@OILERMAN good solid understandable ideas.

"I believe that once an NFL player gets the monetary security they all seek it's almost impossible to work as hard and play with the reckless abandon they did in order to get the money."

CJ begs to differ.

The Titans are in a good spot right now, they don't have to overpay in free agency to appease the fans. What you are suggesting with the fa is kind of like NE. They have done that successfully for years. The key to winning big with this approach is to have a top notch coaching staff and front office that brings in the right players. I think Whisenhunt is going to be the best coaching hire this year and has put together a staff that can make a plan like you suggest work.

[Righteous]

@Number9 9

"I believe that once an NFL player gets the monetary security they all seek it's almost impossible to work as hard and play with the reckless abandon they did in order to get the money."

If that made sense at all, then why sign any player long term, whether they are on your team or not?  Why sign Casey long term?  Why franchise Verner?  Why not let them walk, become paid slackers elsewhere and fill the roster with drafted, motivated labor?  Yeah, because the Pro Bowl, for years, has been filled with cheap labor. Yeah, Delanie Walker stopped playing because he got a contract too, right? 

[reo]

@Number9 9

"I believe that once an NFL player gets the monetary security they all seek it's almost impossible to work as hard and play with the reckless abandon they did in order to get the money."

If that made sense at all, then why sign any player long term, whether they are on your team or not?  Why sign Casey long term?  Why franchise Verner?  Why not let them walk, become paid slackers elsewhere and fill the roster with drafted, motivated labor?  Yeah, because the Pro Bowl, for years, has been filled with cheap labor. Yeah, Delanie Walker stopped playing because he got a contract too, right? 

 

yep.

 

The trick in FA is just like the draft... you have to pick the right players.

[CMJ]

Righteous just gave Oman a little sweet chin music...