Locker And Drop Rates

[oldschool]

I agree, why bother comparing what can't really be compared.

 

There's a direct correlation to Locker sucking when the team sucked, so it's only natural to assume he'll bounce back in 2013 with all these improvements the team has made.

 

When we had a solid team in 2011 Locker impressed a lot of people.

 

No offense but this is you seeing what you want to see. Locker barely played at all as a rookie and when he did, it was when the games were out of reach.

[scine09]

No offense but this is you seeing what you want to see. Locker barely played at all as a rookie and when he did, it was when the games were out of reach.

You sure about that?

 

He came into the Saints game into the first half and the score was somewhere in the 3-3 to 9-3 range.

 

When he came into the Falcons game he came within 1 defensive stop of having a chance to lead the team for the win.

[JCBRAVE]

No offense but this is you seeing what you want to see. Locker barely played at all as a rookie and when he did, it was when the games were out of reach.

Locker is solid when his line isn't in shambles.

[Number9]

You think it was written quickly... wouldn't that suggest that "too much free time" isn't required?    

 

Honestly, I had been looking at QB stats recently and trying to decide what to write about. Since I already knew what website had the data I wanted, pulling that data took almost no time. Formulas in excel are basic and require a few minutes at most. Deciding how to present the results logically and writing about it took most of the time, which is consistent with everything else I've written.  I also was doing work in the middle as it arose, so this could have been done faster... in theory.

 

Putting together stats like this is far simpler than people think... which is why I am constantly disappointed nobody else here ever writes articles for the website.  If there's anything that's difficult... and something I still need to work on... it's the word-smithing/analysis portion.  Presenting data in a way that is both relevant and relateable is always the hard part.

They are just jealous of your brilliance.

[Jamalisms]

Interesting. I've never been jealous of imaginary things before. I wonder what that's like.

[Guest]

Man Aikman had Norv Turner and Jimmy Johnson and his numbers were worse!

[scine09]

Norv Turner is probably the most overrated offensive coordinator ever.

 

He hasn't done a thing since he left the Cowboys in 1993. That was 20 years ago yet the guy gets paid like an offensive genius.

 

Philip Rivers regressed under him and he hasn't done a thing with any other projects that he's been given.

Edited May 21, 2013 by scine09

[Jamalisms]

I think Alex Smith showed promise under Norv, right? Am I mixing guys up with that?

[Superhorn]

I'm not getting anything with that link.

Let's try again (previous link had a space at the end of it).  Here.

[Denali]

At times, Locker has looked like a frightened and confused puppy.  All you had to do was see him play.  Dissecting stats won't show that.  I don't recall McNair or Moon ever looking that scared and out of place in their first few seasons.  Yes, McNair held a clipboard his first few seasons, and took a few seasons after that to fully break-in, but he still never look that scared.  I am hopeful Jake can come around, but let's not pretend that he looked OK.  And the injury he suffered was his fault so it is not an excuse.

[Mercalius]

Let's try again (previous link had a space at the end of it).  Here.

 

The gist of the article:  Do keep in mind though, this was from October.

 

 

That brings us to PFF’s Signature Stat, Accuracy Percentage. Traditional completion percentage is calculated by taking completions and dividing it by attempts. The problem with this simple formula is that not all incompletions are representative of a quarterback’s accuracy. Drops, throwaways, batted passes, spikes, and plays where the quarterback is hit while throwing are all incompletions that have no bearing on accuracy. So what we here at PFF did was treat those drops like completions and then take away all those other plays from attempts to give a quarterback’s true Accuracy Percentage. The final equation looks like this:

PFF Acc. % = (Completions + Drops) / (Attempts – Throw Aways – Spikes – Batted Passes – Hit As Thrown)

So far through five weeks of the season we have seen some surprising performances. WhatRobert Griffin III is doing in Washington is unprecedented. He leads the league with a score over seven percentage points higher than any rookie we’ve ever recorded (Matt Ryan’s 74.9% in 2008). He showed incredible accuracy at Baylor, but I’m not sure if anyone expected him to turn Washington’s offense into the eighth-highest scoring team. I don’t think anyone expected Jake Locker to come out in his second year throwing like he has either. His biggest question mark was his accuracy and it’s a shame he got hurt before he could really remove all doubt.

 

# Name                      Team           Drop backs       Att.         Comp      Drops     TA    BP    SP    HAT    Acc. %

1 Robert Griffin III       WAS                166                  139            96             9         3      2       2        4     82.0

2 Aaron Rodgers          GB                  223                 189          130           17         4      1       1        1     80.8

3 Alex D. Smith             SF                  161                   137           94            10         5      2       0        1     80.6

4 Jake Locker             TEN                115                   106            67           12         2      2       0        3     79.8

5 Matt Ryan                 ATL                 220                    199          136           14        6       3       0        1    79.4

6 Matthew Stafford      DET              187                  173          114           16        4      2        2        0    78.8

7 Tom Brady                 NE                 199                    185          124           14        6      2        1        0    78.4

8 Peyton Manning       DEN               209                 197          130           17        4      3        1        1    78.2

9 Matt Schaub             HST                156                    152            97           13        7      2        0        2    78.0

10 Christian Ponder    MIN                 178                  158          109            5         7      2        0        1    77.0

Edited May 21, 2013 by Mercalius

[Jamalisms]

Let's try again (previous link had a space at the end of it).  Here.

Interesting that they list 12 drops already in just the first three+ games which compares to 19 on the year per SI and Stats LLC. Meanwhile, they only have 2 batted passes in the first 106 attempts but Stats shows 11 by the end of the year which means 9 happened in the next 208 attempts.  It would be interesting to see PFF's counts by the end of the year if anyone has them.  I suspect they count their own which is... well, whatever.  It depends on who charts each organization's data and how different the final numbers are.

 

Drops are partially-related to the QB, as are being hit when thrown, as are throw aways.  There's some debate about batted balls, but I tend to think a QB creates, recognizes and manipulates windows to throw through and they're at least related to QB play in one fashion or another.  Spikes I can see adjusting for.

 

I only took out drops and throw aways and felt that was already muddying the water.  Personally, I'd try not to adjust for as many things as they do with that stat because the more things partially-related to QB play that you remove... the less the product reflects reality. That's just me, though, and it's only a preference.

 

For what it's worth... even just straight up completion percentages before (63%) and after the injury (53%) are pretty disparate so it's definitely a contrast and merits consideration regardless of what other factors you factor in.  Sample size in three games is an issue in the comparison, but so are scheme changes and injuries to Jake and others.

 

I'll stick with this conclusion: Drops aren't the reason for Jake's low completion percentage and don't excuse it.  Many other things could, but not drops.

[titanruss]

omitting batted passes and hit as thrown to that equation is a terrible idea. batted passes are usually indicative of the QB's limitations (height, throwing motion, predictability) and hit as throw are often indicative of the QB's inability to get the ball out on time or lack of awareness.. and if they are aware then maybe they shouldn't throw that ball. 

 

adjusting for them in the equation would be like saying... if only these guys were 4 inches taller, more savvy, released the ball at the correct point, and were omniscient.. then we would get a true rating of their accuracy. 

 

throwaways have some limitations as well considering that the QB may just not have recognized, or even put himself in a bad spot so they had to get rid of the ball. 

 

legit drops and spikes i can get why you would adjust for those... but why count the drops at all if you are discounting everything else? 

[Cyrus]

At times, Locker has looked like a frightened and confused puppy.  All you had to do was see him play.  Dissecting stats won't show that.  I don't recall McNair or Moon ever looking that scared and out of place in their first few seasons.  Yes, McNair held a clipboard his first few seasons, and took a few seasons after that to fully break-in, but he still never look that scared.  I am hopeful Jake can come around, but let's not pretend that he looked OK.  And the injury he suffered was his fault so it is not an excuse.

 

Locker never looked scared. There were a lot of broken plays last year for all sorts of reasons but at no point did he look frightened or out of place. He played with a lot of poise for a guy that was behind a line full of backups and someone with an arm that kept falling out of socket.

 

As for the topic in general, I respect the efforts by statisticians to try and quantify elements of the game, however the reality is that it's not a very good measure of what's happening. It's far more convenient and manageable which is why it's still practical but it shouldn't really try and do anything other than give us a cursory glance. What's clear is that Locker and the rest of the offense needs to get better. Why they failed and how they get better is qualitative not quantitative. 

[Mercalius]

omitting batted passes and hit as thrown to that equation is a terrible idea. batted passes are usually indicative of the QB's limitations (height, throwing motion, predictability) and hit as throw are often indicative of the QB's inability to get the ball out on time or lack of awareness.. and if they are aware then maybe they shouldn't throw that ball. 

 

adjusting for them in the equation would be like saying... if only these guys were 4 inches taller, more savvy, released the ball at the correct point, and were omniscient.. then we would get a true rating of their accuracy. 

 

throwaways have some limitations as well considering that the QB may just not have recognized, or even put himself in a bad spot so they had to get rid of the ball. 

 

legit drops and spikes i can get why you would adjust for those... but why count the drops at all if you are discounting everything else? 

Batted passes are just as often the fault of the offensive line as the quarterback.  

Edited May 21, 2013 by Mercalius