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Locker And Drop Rates


Jamalisms

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Luck didn't and Jamal's stats showed it was more the run game than the qbs

 

I didn't see anywhere in Jamal's article where it mentions the running game, what are you talking about here?

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How did drops and other factors affect Jake Locker's completion percentage, as compared to other young signal callers?   Recently a question arose on TitansReport.com about the number of drops that

There is suddenly this false premise than Locker was showing all kinds of promise before his injury and then fell apart after the injury. Jake Locker completed 51% of his passes(about the same as 2011

And oldschool prefers his graphs in 3D.

Praq,

Riddle me this....

Two of Locker's best games last season were the Pats game and Detroit game. Locker had a lot of completions and solid yds and TDs in those two games. He almost went for 400yds in the Lions game and had a 113 passer rating.

CJ had 11 carries for 4yds vs. NE and against the Lions CJ had 14 carries for 24yds

Later in the season against the Fins the Titans had 177yds on 37 carries. Locker had 9 completions for 122yds and a measly 5.8yds per pass. Same thing for the Jets game....13 completions and 149yds.....

Why wasn't Locker making all these easy passes for yards and a high % when the running game worked best? Why were his best games when the running game did nothing?

First game back from injury I believe. Either way fins were post injury where locker was horrible

Luck vs Wilson stats say it all

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Good work Jamal. The only thing I have to say about drops is that there could/should be a chart that tracks outstanding athletic catches that would not have been a completion if not for an amazing play by the receiver. In most circumstances those will equal out the drops on the QBs stat line. 

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Original post updated to correct the blitz formula that @ctm noted.  Biggest change is that Locker is now the most frequently blitzed QB in this group, as a percent of attempts.  I'll add that although he did complete 51% of passes when blitzed, he threw 2 TDs and 4 Ints... with a passer rating of 66.3.

 

Thanks @NewsToTom. If you ever get around to crunching numbers from the other site, it'd be interesting to compare that to what Stats LLC has.

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It should be noted that 2 of our division opponents blitz more often than pretty much anyone..the Texan and the Colts. Last time I heard numbers on this it was halfway through the year last year and the Colts were leading the league in blitz % at 42%. 

 

With that Oline, an inexperienced QB, and an incomepetent coaching staff unable to make quality adjustments I'd blitz the shit out of Locker too. 

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I don't  see the value in comparing him to any starting qb because he has played all of nine games and in some of those he was injured. The whole idea of comparisons based on these parameters are silly anyhow because the qb is only as good as the entire team.  And since Locker has been in Nashville, the team has been sorely lacking in all areas of endeavor. 

I agree, why bother comparing what can't really be compared.

 

There's a direct correlation to Locker sucking when the team sucked, so it's only natural to assume he'll bounce back in 2013 with all these improvements the team has made.

 

When we had a solid team in 2011 Locker impressed a lot of people.

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Really good stuff.

 

For comparison, check this out:  https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/10/12/signature-stats-snapshot-accuracy-percentage-2/ 

 

Offers an interesting contrast to your findings.  This is from October, so, perhaps it's just a case of a small sample size (only three healthy games from Locker).  To me, Locker looked different before and after the injury, but that's subjective.

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Here's my take on most of the Young QBs with no stats, just using what I remember about the teams and that player...

 

There is only one team I will truly place on the running game for one young QB's success, Colin Kaepernick. It was astonishing how many throws he made to guys without a defender within 5 yards of them. The running game consists of kaep's ability to run the ball too so I am not completely discrediting him. I am just not even close to sold on this kid being an elite QB because he made it to the superbowl.

 

RG3 killed it last year but a lot of that had to do with his running ability that scared defenses away. Morris was really good but I would say that RGIII made him much better than Morris turning RGIII into a stud. Until he can completely revamp his game though, I would be scared shitless as a Redskins fan and more worried than optimistic.

 

Wilson was obviously helped a lot by the running game and not needing to play catch up but I didn't watch enough of the Seahawks to truly make judgement on if any other QB would have been similar in that system.

 

Luck is Luck.You knew what you were getting from him and for the most part, he performed as expected. I'm not going to get on my knees and start sucking yet because many of the Colts wins weren't squarely on his shoulders and the team was given the victory almost.

 

Dalton is probably the best young QB in the game right now not named Luck. It helps to have Green on the team and a running system that will consistently get a couple yards but all the big plays came from Dalton

 

I will avoid Locker simply because I don't know what to think yet and stating your opinion on him is useless because there is enough ammo to be on either side of the fence.

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I'd like to know how that article got written as fast as it did.  I posed the question maybe 3, 4 hours before the article got written.

 

Either Jamal is a very fast researcher/typer or he has too much time on his hands.

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Really good stuff.

 

For comparison, check this out:  https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/10/12/signature-stats-snapshot-accuracy-percentage-2/ 

 

Offers an interesting contrast to your findings.  This is from October, so, perhaps it's just a case of a small sample size (only three healthy games from Locker).  To me, Locker looked different before and after the injury, but that's subjective.

 

I'm not getting anything with that link.

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You think it was written quickly... wouldn't that suggest that "too much free time" isn't required?  :blink:  

 

Honestly, I had been looking at QB stats recently and trying to decide what to write about. Since I already knew what website had the data I wanted, pulling that data took almost no time. Formulas in excel are basic and require a few minutes at most. Deciding how to present the results logically and writing about it took most of the time, which is consistent with everything else I've written.  I also was doing work in the middle as it arose, so this could have been done faster... in theory.

 

Putting together stats like this is far simpler than people think... which is why I am constantly disappointed nobody else here ever writes articles for the website.  If there's anything that's difficult... and something I still need to work on... it's the word-smithing/analysis portion.  Presenting data in a way that is both relevant and relateable is always the hard part.

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Scotty why don't you go look at Moon and Aikman's stats over their first 2 years? 

 

I said Locker could improve. That doesn't change the fact he has a serious accuracy problem

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