Popular Post Jamalisms Posted May 20, 2013 Popular Post Report Share Posted May 20, 2013 How did drops and other factors affect Jake Locker's completion percentage, as compared to other young signal callers? Recently a question arose on TitansReport.com about the number of drops that happened with Jake Locker at quarterback in 2012. The suggestion was that there were so many that it negatively affected Locker’s completion percentage. Assuming so, maybe rampant discussion of his low completion percentage, (56.4%), is unfair. I compared Locker to many young contemporaries – Andrew Luck, Andy Dalton, Cam Newton, Christian Ponder, Russell Wilson, Robert Griffin III, Blaine Gabbert and Colin Kaepernick. These players were chosen on account of youth and relative inexperience. They were also drafted in similar years which means they might have been options for the Titans, had things played out differently. There are many things about a pass that can render it more likely to be caught. It would be foolish to assume that drops are the fault of the receiver alone. For the sake of argument, though, and just to test the theory presented - all drops will be considered equal. To start, let’s look at their actual completion percentages. Of these players, Locker had the second lowest completion percentage. The only player who had a lower completion percentage was Andrew Luck. Locker trailed the leader Robert Griffin III by 9.2%, while Luck was 11.5% behind the leader. The spread is large between best and worst. How much of it was due to drops? Gabbert (8.3%) had the highest drop rate of all players compared. His rate exceeded Locker’s rate by 2.3%. Griffin (7.6%) had the second highest drop rate. This is in spite of having the highest completion percent in this comparison. Kaepernick (7.3%) had the third highest rate. He was a Super Bowl quarterback and had the third highest completion percent. Locker’s drop rate (6.1%) was fourth of the nine passers examined. The average drop rate among all quarterbacks compared is 5.9%. Locker’s rate of 6.1% slightly exceeds that average. Just one fewer drop over the course of the season would have dropped Locker’s rate below the average. Three of the other eight quarterbacks had a higher rate of drops than did Locker, which puts him squarely in the middle of the pack. Locker did have a higher than normal drop rate. Barely. To get an idea of how drops affected the completion rates, the below table shows what completion rates would have been for each signal caller if the drops had all been caught. By passing Newton in this comparison Locker jumps from second worst to third worst among the quarterbacks compared. The spread from Locker to Griffin grew to 10.9%, however, and his completion percentage is still quite low when compared to the other players overall. Another amount we could adjust for is to remove throw aways. If we subtract attempts that resulted in throw aways and combine that with computing all drops as catches, we’ll get an even better idea for whether or not Locker’s completion rate was artificially low. Locker’s throw away rate (2.9%) was actually on the low side, whereas a few players like Wilson (7.1%) and Kaepernick (6.0%) had much higher rates. Ponder (4.6%) and Newton (3.9%) also had a higher throw away rates than Locker. The result is that Locker drops back to the second worst completion percentage and the rich in completions get richer. Two players, Wilson and Griffin, now have completion rates that surpass Locker by more than 10%. Kaepernick’s rate of 74.1% is almost as good, just under 10% better than Locker’s 64.3%. What other strictly statistical things are there to consider? One thing we can look at is inaccurate passing. Based on these numbers alone, the most inaccurate passer of the bunch is Newton (18.8%), followed by Luck (17.7%), followed by (tied) Locker (16.2%). That these are the three signal callers with the worst completion percentages is unlikely to fall under the ‘coincidence’ category. Tied with Locker is Gabbert (16.2%), owner of the fourth worst completion percent in the adjusted chart above. Wilson (11.5%) and Griffin (13.0%) are the least inaccurate passers by a decent margin and are the leaders in completion percentage per the adjusted numbers. Kaepernick (14.2%) has the third lowest rate of inaccuracy and the third best completion percentage. Low inaccuracy rates corresponding with high completion percentages isn’t a coincidence either. There are many things that can cause an inaccurate pass. Distance a ball travels in the air matters as does the proximity and placement of a defender. Sometimes the defender dictates where a pass needs to be located, which can make it a harder throw and a tighter window. Despite these considerations, inaccurate passes align pretty well with completion percentage - especially when drops and throw aways are taken out of the mix. Drops don’t really seem to be as big of an issue as passes overthrown or underthrown or thrown wide of a receiver. There are other things to consider as well. Below are some other totals for each passer. Similar to accuracy measures, some of these factors are probably more compelling than drops. What conclusions can you draw from these amounts? Amounts from Stats LLC, Courtesy of SI.com Follow Titans Report on Twitter: @TitansReportFollow Jamal on Twitter: @JamalismsClick here to view the article gatordude731, begooode, Pragidealist, and 3 others 6 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pragidealist Posted May 20, 2013 Report Share Posted May 20, 2013 (edited) So most accurate passers were the ones with the best running games? Can't do it now but I would be interested in comparable rankings of those accuracy metrics to run games. Edited May 20, 2013 by Pragidealist Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamalisms Posted May 20, 2013 Author Report Share Posted May 20, 2013 So most accurate passers were the ones with the best running games?And the lowest passing attempts (apart from Locker, orgainized from right to left). That completions rates skew to the right is unlikely a coincidence. Not all QB's were full time, but Wilson was... and RGIII essentially was. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Number9 Posted May 20, 2013 Report Share Posted May 20, 2013 BUT................. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Number9 Posted May 20, 2013 Report Share Posted May 20, 2013 @Jamalisms Outstanding breakdown of dropped passes. VY was the victim of a ton of drops. The MNF Game in Denver was horrible. kyle021 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldschool Posted May 20, 2013 Report Share Posted May 20, 2013 Let's see comparable numbers for the top 10 passers in the league. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Number9 Posted May 20, 2013 Report Share Posted May 20, 2013 Let's see comparable numbers for the top 10 passers in the league.Let's just work @Jamalisms to death. We pay him enough. Pragidealist 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
animatormike Posted May 20, 2013 Report Share Posted May 20, 2013 Let's see comparable numbers for the top 10 passers in the league. And oldschool prefers his graphs in 3D. XAEA12, and kyle021 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldschool Posted May 20, 2013 Report Share Posted May 20, 2013 (edited) @Jamalisms Outstanding breakdown of dropped passes. VY was the victim of a ton of drops. The MNF Game in Denver was horrible. It's funny you mentioned VY. The same excuses are being made for Locker that were made for Young: dropped passes, multiple coordinators, isolated performances, ect. Edited May 20, 2013 by oldschool Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldschool Posted May 20, 2013 Report Share Posted May 20, 2013 And oldschool prefers his graphs in 3D. Pivot tables Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamalisms Posted May 20, 2013 Author Report Share Posted May 20, 2013 I'm not putting together anything else because I don't see value in comparing Locker to Rodgers or Brees when he doesn't even have a full season of starts under his belt yet and his numbers to date don't even match up to those of rookies... but anyone legitimately interested in something else can put this together with ease. SI.com player profiles have all of these numbers/splits and more. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldschool Posted May 20, 2013 Report Share Posted May 20, 2013 I'm not putting together anything else because I don't see value in comparing Locker to Rodgers or Brees when he doesn't even have a full season of starts under his belt yet and his numbers to date don't even match up to those of rookies... but anyone legitimately interested in something else can put this together with ease. SI.com player profiles have all of these numbers/splits and more. Fair point but you have to throw out the numbers that Griffin put up due to their offense. You could argue the same for Wilson and Kaepernick since they had ridiculous run games and even better defenses. I would add that it should be about where Locker needs to get to and not just where the 1st and 2nd year starters are in relation to him. amyinsparta 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctm Posted May 20, 2013 Report Share Posted May 20, 2013 The % of time (67) that Wilson was blitzed appears to be an error. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamalisms Posted May 20, 2013 Author Report Share Posted May 20, 2013 @ctm Yeah, there's something funky going on there with some others as well. Probably didn't make the formula relative or something. I'll fix it tomorrow. Thanks for the heads up. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denali Posted May 20, 2013 Report Share Posted May 20, 2013 I thought this thread was going to be about Locker being dropped from fantasy teams. Excellent detailed article. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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