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Locker And Drop Rates


Jamalisms

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i'm pretty convinced most of the accuracy issues were the offenses and locker not confident in them. it was mentioned he was waiting for the receiver to choose his option so as not to mess up rather than throwing to the point when the WR made his cut. then he comes back from injury and two weeks later we have a whole new offense for the last 5 games of the season. 

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How did drops and other factors affect Jake Locker's completion percentage, as compared to other young signal callers?   Recently a question arose on TitansReport.com about the number of drops that

There is suddenly this false premise than Locker was showing all kinds of promise before his injury and then fell apart after the injury. Jake Locker completed 51% of his passes(about the same as 2011

And oldschool prefers his graphs in 3D.

Batted passes are just as often the fault of the offensive line as the quarterback.  

 

 

..but still, half the time (in your opinion) it is the QB's fault and should not be omitted. football outsiders has those stats i'm pretty sure... maybe it is pff... they should use them when creating random accuracy ratings like this. 

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Why they failed and how they get better is qualitative not quantitative. 

Therein lies the problem.

 

Fans want to discuss these things but few have the knowledge base to truly assess qualititative measures accurately... those who do lack intel on the true play design, blocking scheme and checks being made by players... and only a fraction of them will spend the time watching and rewatching plays to break them down and add true value to commentary... which just leaves poor old me and my opinions are too-oft ridiculed by the rest of you.

 

No, no... it's better to just use the hard, known, factual stats to try and hint at or suggest what caused events, thereby bypassing the need to educate everyone all the time.  It dumbs things down a bit but makes for less arguing and bitterness.

 

:ph34r:

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Locker had far and away the most passes caught out of bounds. I believe there were at least three in the same game. (against the Jaguars). Wright stepped out of bounds before coming back and catching the pass (it was on-target). Nate Washington caught an out pattern, had one foot in bounds then took a very, very wide step (5+ feet) with other foot which put him out of bounds. Lastly, the toe-tapper fade by Damian Williams in the endzone that the referees didn't overturn due to the lack of clear video. 

 

Cook and Britt both had bad drops that game too, especially early on accurate passes. Just a bad game overall for Titans receivers and a game that the Titans should have won. Nate Washington dropped a touchdown in the endzone on a smash concept. (Corner route with a curl underneath). The pass was perfect too - Washington just bobbled it and by the time he double caught it, he was out of bounds.

 

The game was a bit of an aberration because it was so incredibly bad, but it was indicative of the struggles of the entire offense. 

____________

 

As for the batted down passes, Locker had a ton of them against the Texans. I believe he had at least two passes tipped for interceptions as well (one by Shaun Cody, one by JJ Watt). The Titans offensive line was just being destroyed by Watt and Co. Locker was sacked 6 times, hit 8 times and 16 passes defended. That was the game where Stewart broke his leg and Roos played through an injury. 

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I got curious:

 

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The overthrow/underthrow/ throw wide differences were stark.  Locker way under theirs.   Where is his low completion percentage come from then?  Its not mostly drops, its not mostly throw aways (he's throwing fewer).

 

I don't have time to really dig in.. but what accounts for the largest difference?  COOB?  Defenses? Batted Down are all slightly higher than the average.. but not crazy high...

 

Interesting.. Thanks.

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I think the most notable thing to me in looking at these is the completion rate when being blitzed.  Every single one of the elite QBs (and Hass too) are up at least 10% on completion rates... which I'm sure plays into the fact that they're blitzed less often than Locker.  The completion percentage when blitzed is a wider and more consistent gap than completion rates overall.

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I think the most notable thing to me in looking at these is the completion rate when being blitzed.  Every single one of the elite QBs (and Hass too) are up at least 10% on completion rates... which I'm sure plays into the fact that they're blitzed less often than Locker.  The completion percentage when blitzed is a wider and more consistent gap than completion rates overall.

 

Yeah... the volume was pretty big difference between MH and Locker too.   The DC's blitzed the crap out of the rookie.  I am sure that issue was compounded by Palmer's system that didn't provide a lot of protections and cause him to read more.

 

That (I would hope) would get better with a run game and better with Locker's experience.

 

All and all- very good stuff.   Thanks for the time.

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Did any of those other QB's being looked at have a bad O-line, a disloacted shoulder, and JJ Watt in their face 90% of the time? I know these sound like excuses for Jake, but the guy just had a bad year, thats all, I belive he'll do much better in 2013.

 

In the beginning before everything fell apart he looked solid vs top teams, and good vs average teams. Now its his offense and he gets all the first team snaps. Crunch all the numbers you guys want but he will to do better in 2013.

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I think the most notable thing to me in looking at these is the completion rate when being blitzed.  Every single one of the elite QBs (and Hass too) are up at least 10% on completion rates... which I'm sure plays into the fact that they're blitzed less often than Locker.  The completion percentage when blitzed is a wider and more consistent gap than completion rates overall.

 

Which is pretty much what you would expect with a first-year starter, no? Luck has a lower completion % against the blitz and I think it's fair to say that the offensive lines for the Titans and Colts were pretty comparable later in the season when Locker struggled.

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Love the time and effort spent in this thread Jamal.You and others do ur homework and its appreciated!I cant wait for the season I hope LockDawg stays healthy,Stella gets her groove on with the O-Line,And we really put together a damn good season!Im by no means a number guy,but with what yall put out and the break down it gets bad or good I can grasp the facts at hand,always makes for a nice read

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Is the largest difference the batted down and COOB? 

What would be the adjusted percentage?

 

Do you have the charts to quickl do that change?  I can do they math but would take time to set up the excel sheets.

If you put his rate of occurance for those two things equal to the combined rate of occurance for the vets, you get a little more than 11 attempts back. Subtract those from his total attempts and his 177 completions equal a rate of 58.4%.

On the other hand, if he can just add the 10% better completion rate on blitzes (that all of the vet QBs managed) then his completion rate would jump to 60.2%.

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