Titans279 Posted March 18 Report Share Posted March 18 4 minutes ago, BudsOilers said: Outperforming league average for a top 5 pick is a massively low bar. Agreed. It's the bare minimum which I'd just use as a starting point. But if a guy (Trubisky) has 8 years of NFL experience (4 as a starter) and only 1 year where he was "above average" then he probably sucks ass. 3 minutes ago, Stevenths78 said: ChatGPT said Trubisky outperformed league average when Trubisky had a 33.3 QBR his rookie year. This ranked 31/32 starters. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2017/passing.htm QBR != passer rating. QBR tries to look at the context of the raw stats, but sometimes it overrates players. I think Tebow had some of the highest QBRs ever in some games. BudsOilers 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
BudsOilers Posted March 18 Report Share Posted March 18 Just now, Pragidealist said: What is your criteria? Being a top 5-10 QB and perennial playoff QB and I'd say for a #1 overall pick it's being a Top 5 elite player. rns90, and Stevenths78 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pragidealist Posted March 18 Report Share Posted March 18 8 minutes ago, BudsOilers said: Outperforming league average for a top 5 pick is a massively low bar. It gets to a point though that it can't be massively low bar. If every top 5 pick exceeded teh average and 1 qb is chosen in the top.5 everyyear... then it quickly becomes impossible statistically to meet. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevenths78 Posted March 18 Report Share Posted March 18 Just now, Titans279 said: Agreed. It's the bare minimum which I'd just use as a starting point. But if a guy (Trubisky) has 8 years of NFL experience (4 as a starter) and only 1 year where he was "above average" then he probably sucks ass. QBR != passer rating. QBR tries to look at the context of the raw stats, but sometimes it overrates players. I think Tebow had some of the highest QBRs ever in some games. Fair point. Using Passer rating Trusbisky was still ranked 28/32. Whether you prefer QBR or Passer Rating, it is easy to see Mitch was horrible his rookie year and onwards. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
BudsOilers Posted March 18 Report Share Posted March 18 Just now, Pragidealist said: It gets to a point though that it can't be massively low bar. If every top 5 pick exceeded teh average and 1 qb is chosen in the top.5 everyyear... then it quickly becomes impossible statistically to meet. Only because teams consistently mis-evaluate prospects and overdraft them..... Stevenths78 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pragidealist Posted March 18 Report Share Posted March 18 1 minute ago, BudsOilers said: Being a top 5-10 QB and perennial playoff QB and I'd say for a #1 overall pick it's being a Top 5 elite player. I think this ignores the value and difficulty of the finding the position. flaming_thumbtack 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheChosenTitan Posted March 18 Report Share Posted March 18 (edited) People have different opinions, I just don’t see it in Sanders but respect your opinion Edited March 18 by TheChosenTitan Stevenths78 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pragidealist Posted March 18 Report Share Posted March 18 Just now, BudsOilers said: Only because teams consistently mis-evaluate prospects and overdraft them..... True but that's bc its so hard that no one can do it... hence why expectations by fans are a bit out of wack Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevenths78 Posted March 18 Report Share Posted March 18 Just now, TheChosenTitan said: People have different opinions, I just don’t see it in dangers but respect your opinion You’re a good poster japan 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
BudsOilers Posted March 18 Report Share Posted March 18 Just now, Pragidealist said: I think this ignores the value and difficulty of the finding the position. Nope. You want your #1 overall draft pick to be a HOF caliber player. Stevenths78 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
BudsOilers Posted March 18 Report Share Posted March 18 (edited) 1 minute ago, Pragidealist said: True but that's bc its so hard that no one can do it... hence why expectations by fans are a bit out of wack What I see is that teams tend to overrate athleticism and potential (based on some hubris they can develop said players) and tend to undervalue things like ball placement accuracy and processing speed. The vast majority of misses are on guys with known accuracy and decision making flaws that teams thought they could fix. For every Mahomes or Allen or Lamar (none of them top 5 picks mind you), there are 10 fold guys who never live up to the expectations of the pick. Edited March 18 by BudsOilers Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
japan Posted March 18 Report Share Posted March 18 Is there any way that Stevenths is actually that Bills clown who used to come on the board. I'm getting weird deja vu with this guy... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pragidealist Posted March 18 Report Share Posted March 18 Just now, BudsOilers said: Nope. You want your #1 overall draft pick to be a HOF caliber player. Absolutely.. but there is a difference between wanting it and expecting it. Bc no players is known to be that- teams have to draft with an expected error rate.. adn the expected error rate is already high with qbs. You all said being a pro bowler is too low a bar.. and only 44% of all qbs taken in teh first round make the pro bowl. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevenths78 Posted March 18 Report Share Posted March 18 Just now, japan said: Is there any way that Stevenths is actually that Bills clown who used to come on the board. I'm getting weird deja vu with this guy... No. I’m just me. You can go back to stalking me now, and making racist comments. japan 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
9 Nines Posted March 18 Report Share Posted March 18 Draft Cam Ward NOW!!!!!! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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