Derrick Henry is still an elite back.

[Mythos27]

On 9/23/2024 at 12:58 PM, titanruss said:

Not sure he was ever tracked that fast. But he did get over 22 one year - just barely.
 

None of that matter though because he still had the speed for breakaways last year. He just got tripped up or they had an angle.  
 

 

An under-discussed consequence of the league going to more 2-high safety looks is that there is now an additional DB playing 12 yards off the ball that can get the angle on break-away runs from RBs. I bet that if you go back and track Henry's biggest breakaway runs that went the distance, a good number of them were against single-high looks. Last year he had a few chances and while the morons here will say he didn't have the speed to finish those runs, the reality is that more often than naught there was a DB that was far enough up-field to have a good enough angle on him. 

[Jamalisms]

17 minutes ago, IrishTitansFan said:

Nailed it

 

He's on pace for double that in yards (on pace for his second most rushing yards ever, actually) but I suspect that will fade with time. Good chance he ends with similar, maybe slightly better, rushing yardage than last year though.

 

The best time to crow is after a good performance (he displayed really good vision to take advantage on some runs this last game, btw). The best time to eat crow will be after bad games ... and I'm sure he'll have a few.

[IrishTitansFan]

9 minutes ago, Jamalisms said:

 

He's on pace for double that in yards (on pace for his second most rushing yards ever, actually) but I suspect that will fade with time. Good chance he ends with similar, maybe slightly better, rushing yardage than last year though.

 

The best time to crow is after a good performance (he displayed really good vision to take advantage on some runs this last game, btw). The best time to eat crow will be after bad games ... and I'm sure he'll have a few.

Yeah I ignored that part.. was focusing on the short deal with the Ravens to replace Gus Edwards

[Mythos27]

49 minutes ago, IrishTitansFan said:

Yeah I ignored that part.. was focusing on the short deal with the Ravens to replace Gus Edwards

Predicting a player's production in a brand new system, with 3 new offensive linemen is damn near impossible. I didn't even attempt it with any specificity. Shit, we still don't know what Henry's production will look like by year's end. The Cowboys game could be an aberration or the beginning of a trend. 

[Callidus]

1 hour ago, Mythos27 said:

An under-discussed consequence of the league going to more 2-high safety looks is that there is now an additional DB playing 12 yards off the ball that can get the angle on break-away runs from RBs. I bet that if you go back and track Henry's biggest breakaway runs that went the distance, a good number of them were against single-high looks. Last year he had a few chances and while the morons here will say he didn't have the speed to finish those runs, the reality is that more often than naught there was a DB that was far enough up-field to have a good enough angle on him. 

I touched on this back in 2019-2020. Teams that could contain henry didnt stack the box. It was a souble edged sword. You either stopped him for 2 yards or less or he broke one for 40+

 

Go with the 7, trust in them to keep him to less 4 or less and dont risk the mortal blow. 

Edited September 25, 2024 by Callidus

[bizzyeddie]

1 hour ago, Jamalisms said:

 

He's on pace for double that in yards (on pace for his second most rushing yards ever, actually) but I suspect that will fade with time. Good chance he ends with similar, maybe slightly better, rushing yardage than last year though.

 

The best time to crow is after a good performance (he displayed really good vision to take advantage on some runs this last game, btw). The best time to eat crow will be after bad games ... and I'm sure he'll have a few.

he showed he still had good vision last season...if you took the time to actually watch his runs you could see it.

there was just very little room to make it work

[oldschool]

3 hours ago, Mythos27 said:

An under-discussed consequence of the league going to more 2-high safety looks is that there is now an additional DB playing 12 yards off the ball that can get the angle on break-away runs from RBs. I bet that if you go back and track Henry's biggest breakaway runs that went the distance, a good number of them were against single-high looks. Last year he had a few chances and while the morons here will say he didn't have the speed to finish those runs, the reality is that more often than naught there was a DB that was far enough up-field to have a good enough angle on him. 

 

It would be the opposite. Henry against 2 high safeties invites the running game. I wasn't joking last week when I said he would a HOF lock if the league had gone to 2 high safeties 4 years ago.

[Mythos27]

1 hour ago, Callidus said:

I touched on this back in 2019-2020. Teams that could contain henry didnt stack the box. It was a souble edged sword. You either stopped him for 2 yards or less or he broke one for 40+

 

Go with the 7, trust in them to keep him to less 4 or less and dont risk the mortal blow. 

Exactly. It also didn't help matters that we were extremely predictable which made it easy to run blitz us to death. I'm interested to see how long it takes OCs to adjust to this "new" 2-high safety meta. 

[Mythos27]

Just now, oldschool said:

 

It would be the opposite. Henry against 2 high safeties invites the running game. I wasn't joking last week when I said he would a HOF lock if the league had gone to 2 high safeties 4 years ago.

Yes but as @Callidus said while it invites more runs by making shorter gains easier, it removes almost completely from the table, a back like Henry taking it all the way to the house. It's particularly effective against home run hitters. 

[oldschool]

1 hour ago, Callidus said:

I touched on this back in 2019-2020. Teams that could contain henry didnt stack the box. It was a souble edged sword. You either stopped him for 2 yards or less or he broke one for 40+

 

Go with the 7, trust in them to keep him to less 4 or less and dont risk the mortal blow. 

 

This is wrong as well. Teams don't stack the box based on who the RB is. Its 99% based on personnel grouping ie. 12, 21, 13 etc... All the Titans had to do to get the 8th man out of the box was run more 11. I've provided the data many times. The teams that run more 12, 21, 22, and so on have RBs that face more 8 man fronts. back to 11 for a second, 11 was where henry did some of his best work with a big physical like NWI lined up in the slot.  As for this year, the Ravens are in 12 50% of the time which is why henry is 3rd in 8 man front faced percentage.

[oldschool]

5 minutes ago, Mythos27 said:

Yes but as @Callidus said while it invites more runs by making shorter gains easier, it removes almost completely from the table, a back like Henry taking it all the way to the house. It's particularly effective against home run hitters. 

 

He argued teams chose to use a 7 man front to contain Henry which you know its false. I've shown the numbers over and over again for the last 3 years. Henry should be able to beat most DBs one on one in the secondary. His lack of home runs didn't have anything to do with another DB on the field which in reality would be an advantage for him. His lack of long runs was attributed to him breaking less tackles around the line of scrimmage and not getting going. 

[Callidus]

18 minutes ago, oldschool said:

 

This is wrong as well. Teams don't stack the box based on who the RB is. Its 99% based on personnel grouping ie. 12, 21, 13 etc... All the Titans had to do to get the 8th man out of the box was run more 11. I've provided the data many times. The teams that run more 12, 21, 22, and so on have RBs that face more 8 man fronts. back to 11 for a second, 11 was where henry did some of his best work with a big physical like NWI lined up in the slot.  As for this year, the Ravens are in 12 50% of the time which is why henry is 3rd in 8 man front faced percentage.

I was talking about what worked well at stoping henry. Not why they were stacking the box. Idc if we are in triple tes you are still better off leaving two safties deep to prevent the big run. 

[Mythos27]

26 minutes ago, oldschool said:

 

He argued teams chose to use a 7 man front to contain Henry which you know its false. I've shown the numbers over and over again for the last 3 years. Henry should be able to beat most DBs one on one in the secondary. His lack of home runs didn't have anything to do with another DB on the field which in reality would be an advantage for him. His lack of long runs was attributed to him breaking less tackles around the line of scrimmage and not getting going. 

I'm sorry but I just flat out disagree. Go back and watch a lot of those runs where Henry got loose and eventually tackled; it was almost always by a safety that was deep. I don't see how having 2 DBs 12+ yards off the ball would be a benefit to breaking off huge 40+ yard runs. Having just one safety to beat back there increases your odds of finishing those runs greatly. Btw, Henry was 6th in broken tackles last year per football reference so your theory falls pretty flat on him not breaking enough tackles. 

[Callidus]

33 minutes ago, oldschool said:

 

He argued teams chose to use a 7 man front to contain Henry which you know its false. I've shown the numbers over and over again for the last 3 years. Henry should be able to beat most DBs one on one in the secondary. His lack of home runs didn't have anything to do with another DB on the field which in reality would be an advantage for him. His lack of long runs was attributed to him breaking less tackles around the line of scrimmage and not getting going. 

Go back at watch his big run highlight tape. More often than not its against a super condensed front. I never said play nickle against him idk where you got that. I just said keep both safties more than 10 yards from the los...

[oldschool]

5 minutes ago, Mythos27 said:

I'm sorry but I just flat out disagree. Go back and watch a lot of those runs where Henry got loose and eventually tackled; it was almost always by a safety that was deep. I don't see how having 2 DBs 12+ yards off the ball would be a benefit to breaking off huge 40+ yard runs. Having just one safety to beat back there increases your odds of finishing those runs greatly. Btw, Henry was 6th in broken tackles last year per football reference so your theory falls pretty flat on him not breaking enough tackles. 

 

Come on you know why he had 23 broken tackles last year... its volume. His broken tackle rate is much lower than 5th. He was middle of the pack in most RB advanced metrics last year for a reason.

Edited September 25, 2024 by oldschool