tgo Posted June 27, 2020 Report Share Posted June 27, 2020 6 minutes ago, OILERMAN said: I've been making this argument. Biden won't be able to do poorly enough to meet the expectations the Trumpers have set A lot of political strategists I listen to (Axlerod, Plouffe, Murphy) keep bringing up how the Trump camp is setting itself up for failure by constantly setting too high of expectations. Its the dumbest thing a campaign can do - totally self defeating. OILERMAN 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsntLifeFunny Posted June 27, 2020 Report Share Posted June 27, 2020 13 minutes ago, tgo said: A lot of political strategists I listen to (Axlerod, Plouffe, Murphy) keep bringing up how the Trump camp is setting itself up for failure by constantly setting too high of expectations. Its the dumbest thing a campaign can do - totally self defeating. This is especially so when the guy driving the clown car is a retard of epic proportions who also happens to be a traitor to his country. MadMax, 'Nator, OILERMAN, and 1 other 4 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OILERMAN Posted June 27, 2020 Report Share Posted June 27, 2020 16 minutes ago, tgo said: A lot of political strategists I listen to (Axlerod, Plouffe, Murphy) keep bringing up how the Trump camp is setting itself up for failure by constantly setting too high of expectations. Its the dumbest thing a campaign can do - totally self defeating. I actually think Biden matches up well. If Trump does like he did against Hillary Biden could possibly punk him out. It's also way more likely Biden calls him out for his incompetence and Trump has some type of melt down tgo, MadMax, and pat 3 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
tgo Posted June 27, 2020 Report Share Posted June 27, 2020 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Come on Titans Posted June 27, 2020 Report Share Posted June 27, 2020 nice portrait... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pragidealist Posted June 27, 2020 Report Share Posted June 27, 2020 On 6/25/2020 at 11:32 PM, Titans279 said: You don't seem to follow my posts, which is fine. I wouldn't either! My dismissive attitude in that post is more about how since polls at this point are not very predictive at all this ritual posting of polls is more about reassuring people than about "objective analysis." Biden's doing very well for a challenger (basically the best on record) but the point is this far out it's still not a slam dunk. That's an objective evaluation. https://politicalwire.com/2020/06/27/incumbents-dont-come-back-from-trump-like-deficits/ Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Titans279 Posted June 27, 2020 Report Share Posted June 27, 2020 38 minutes ago, Pragidealist said: https://politicalwire.com/2020/06/27/incumbents-dont-come-back-from-trump-like-deficits/ What is your opinion of the state of the race and what do you imagine mine to be? I think mine is pretty inline with the text of the article your blurb cited. Biden's doing very well for a challenger (basically the best on record) but this is not a slam dunk (yet). People are starting to see Biden as inevitable because all of the large poll leads that get posted. These are basically the thesis and conclusion from the article. Quote There is time for Trump to mount a comeback, but the candidates who do come back are usually not incumbents and have never been elected incumbents in the polling era. ... Simply put, Trump doesn't have a lot of room to mount the type of comeback he needs to. There are a relatively small amount of elections in the polling era so saying "this has never happened so it can't happen" (e.g. "Incumbents Don’t Come Back from Trump-Like Deficits") is not rational analysis and is why experts like Enten are still saying there's time for a comeback. We're far pretty put, things can still change. I think there's even a good chance that things get much worse for Trump since he's just not fit to be president during a time of crisis, and we have 3 right now (covid, BLM, and economic). Given our system, Biden can have a 4-5 point popular vote lead and still have a good chance of losing, so all that would need to happen in the next ~4 months is cut Biden's lead to around +5 and it would be a competitive election. https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/27/politics/incumbents-elections-polling-analysis/index.html 'Nator 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctm Posted June 27, 2020 Report Share Posted June 27, 2020 Trump's fate is now tied to the pandemic. It's his Vietnam or Iraq war. People see the story on the news daily and how bad he screwed up compared to other countries. This is a situation that he can't lie his way out of. The trend line on the pandemic is getting worse and Trump's polling is matching it. Could he get a small reversion to the mean in polling where he's only down 6-8 points instead of double digits? Possibly, but not enough overcome the impression of his handling of the pandemic which is baked in. Now he's trying to repeal the ACA again. That will make his situation marginally worse. Everything else going on is background noise to the pandemic. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
'Nator Posted June 27, 2020 Report Share Posted June 27, 2020 (edited) Trump was going to lose even without the pandemic but the pandemic is making it a landslide. I am telling you guys, he only won because Hillary is so hated. And Bernie only came close in 2016 because Hillary is so hated. The Bernie movement and the Trump movement are both overrated movements. Edited June 27, 2020 by 'Nator IsntLifeFunny, tgo, 9 Nines, and 1 other 4 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
tgo Posted June 27, 2020 Report Share Posted June 27, 2020 'Nator, and oldschool 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pragidealist Posted June 27, 2020 Report Share Posted June 27, 2020 4 hours ago, Titans279 said: What is your opinion of the state of the race and what do you imagine mine to be? I think mine is pretty inline with the text of the article your blurb cited. Biden's doing very well for a challenger (basically the best on record) but this is not a slam dunk (yet). People are starting to see Biden as inevitable because all of the large poll leads that get posted. These are basically the thesis and conclusion from the article. There are a relatively small amount of elections in the polling era so saying "this has never happened so it can't happen" (e.g. "Incumbents Don’t Come Back from Trump-Like Deficits") is not rational analysis and is why experts like Enten are still saying there's time for a comeback. We're far pretty put, things can still change. I think there's even a good chance that things get much worse for Trump since he's just not fit to be president during a time of crisis, and we have 3 right now (covid, BLM, and economic). Given our system, Biden can have a 4-5 point popular vote lead and still have a good chance of losing, so all that would need to happen in the next ~4 months is cut Biden's lead to around +5 and it would be a competitive election. https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/27/politics/incumbents-elections-polling-analysis/index.html I honestly don't have a strong opinion. He's doing well. I haven't looked or tried to predict specific states or looked at models. Mostly it doesn't really matter what I think or do. At a high, shallow analysis level- it looks like Biden should probably win. I'd be surprised if Trump wins but not as gut punched as last time. What do you I think your opinion is? Not really sure- as you've said I don't follow your posts that closely. One post I read at random gave me an impression that you were doing that thing of "don't say Biden is winning because it will lead to him losing." But it was one post and I may have been using halo thinking regarding your post to what I think many are doing. Titans279 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post OILERMAN Posted June 28, 2020 Popular Post Report Share Posted June 28, 2020 Trump is not going to win the election and it likely won't be close. And more importantly he's not trying to and doesn't give a shit anymore SpLeEnBeAnS, MadMax, Pragidealist, and 2 others 5 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TitansFan777 Posted June 28, 2020 Report Share Posted June 28, 2020 15 minutes ago, OILERMAN said: Trump is not going to win the election and it likely won't be close. And more importantly he's not trying to and doesn't give a shit anymore Maybe it’s because of rona, but Trump certainly seems way less focused on his campaign than in previous months and years. He’s Tweeting, but it feels like he is putting in the bare minimum in this race. Outside of his rally last weekend, he has been very low profile by his standards. OILERMAN 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Starkiller Posted June 28, 2020 Report Share Posted June 28, 2020 1 hour ago, OILERMAN said: Trump is not going to win the election and it likely won't be close. And more importantly he's not trying to and doesn't give a shit anymore Oh, I think he is trying very, very hard to win the election. The only thing he cares about is being seen as a winner and not a loser. The problem is that he has been such a train wreck of a president he has no good defense. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsntLifeFunny Posted June 28, 2020 Report Share Posted June 28, 2020 (edited) I think the Lincoln Project really did a number on him. He was watching Fox one evening and saw in horror an advertisement that essentially made him look in the mirror. Fox has always been his comfort zone he retreats to every single night for self-indulgence. It may have been the straw that broke the camel’s back, because since then he’s been a whiny bitch, even by his standard. Edited June 28, 2020 by IsntLifeFunny tgo, and Come on Titans 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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