Cam Ward analysis heading into year two

[oldschool]

46 minutes ago, BudsOilers said:

Ideally you'd like him to build off the last part of 2025 but even these stats are a bit inflated.

 

• They scored 2 TD's (1 passing) versus SEA in the last 2 minutes (it was 30-10 at the 2 minute warning and the only TD to that point was a Dike punt return.  
• Ward had 2 TD passes vs CLE but was 12-26 for 98 yards for the rest of the game and they won largely because of the run game and turnovers and a key punt block.
• 2 TD's (1 passing) in the 4th vs SF down 21 and 17 points

QBR reflects this as well.  In the 8 games after the bye, he had QBR's under 40 in 4 games (50%).  The highest QBR game was finale when he played only the 1 series before getting hurt.

 

In a glass half full mode, I fully expect Daboll to run the offense in a similar manner to what McCoy was doing - establish the run, emphasize more play action and simpler read pass designs - at least until Ward can master that stuff before expanding out things.  But this also will require the defense holding up their end of the bargain and playing complementary ball.  The offense will likely implode if they have to play constantly from behind.

 

 

 

 

Fair point but I'd argue considering his OL, Skill positions, and OC, the macro numbers for the 2nd half do show improvement even with some of the context. I'm not saying he's arrived or anything. He has very real concerns about his mechanics that are fixable if he is willing to work on them. I expected a better rookie season out of him even with the lack of support. This year will be critical. He doesn't have to be a top 5 QB by seasons end but he better show quite a bit of progression. The pressure is real.

[OILERMAN]

13 minutes ago, oldschool said:

 

Fair point but I'd argue considering his OL, Skill positions, and OC, the macro numbers for the 2nd half do show improvement even with some of the context.

 

After Callahan was fired they stopped using all the 3 WR sets as much, played more heavy sets, ran the ball and protected the poor pass pro. 

 

He was put in a much friendlier environment 

[oldschool]

1 hour ago, OILERMAN said:

It's def not easier to play QB these days. Defenses have really passed the offense in terms of defending the passing games. I recently heard a podcast(The Athletic?) that went into detail. Defenses have went away from the single high and went all out against preventing explosive plays. They play way more hybrid zones, inverted zones and usually don't get into their true coverage until after the ball is snapped. They also have defenders follow WRs in motion(a man coverage tell) but drop into zone. 

 

The last 3 or 4 years it's been way more a team/defensive that won the SB vs the elite QB. Darnold played well but it was nothing great. He had like 25 TDs 14 INTs, in the SB he had 200 yards and a passer rating in the 70s. The year before Hurts had like 18 TDs, and barely cracked 200 yards in the SB and KC beat the Eagles throwing for 180 yards.....

 

The Titans need to try and build a dominant defense and OL and play complimentary football. Seattle, the Eagles and KC won the last 3 SBs this way. Develop Ward along the way

 

Brady, Manning, Brees are gone and Stafford is about done. 

 

 

 

Not sure I completely agree here. Its way easier to play QB now than it was 25-30 years ago because you can barely touch them any longer and the rules overwhelmingly favor the offense. Also not sure why I keep reading this crap about explosive play rates being down. Its been pretty consistent over the last 8 years or so.

 

 

NFL League-Wide Average Explosive Rates by Season

Season | Explosive Pass Rate (Completions 15+ Yds) | Explosive Run Rate (Runs 10+ Yds)

2025      13.1%                                                                    11.5%

2024      13.3%                                                                    11.6%.

2023      13.4%                                                                    11.7%

2022      13.5%                                                                    11.9%

2021      13.9%                                                                    12.1%

2020      14.2%                                                                    12.4%

2019      13.8%                                                                    12.0%

2018      14.1%                                                                    11.8%.

 

Edited Sunday at 04:47 PM by oldschool

[freakingeek]

I like Cam alot but they have GOT to work on him scrambling backwards when there's pressure. It seldom ends well. I'd take more throw aways as opposed to the backpedaling. The defenses are just too fast. That said I think he has the tools to be great. It's just going to take some time and good coaching.  I think given the rebuilding position the Titans are in, I believe Daboll will be around for at least a couple of years before he gets another HC offer. The Oline should be in much better position to protect him this year. I think we see a 50/50 pass run ratio this season.

[BudsOilers]

The numbers do show a bit of decline in that data.

 

There's always adjustments between the offenses and defenses year to year.  You definitely see defenses like Philly's and the MacDonald/Minter types having some success with their schemes.  Getting guys who can be versatile run or pass is key as opposed to the 3 WR/3 CB's world that was huge a few years ago is one piece of that for example but not everyone has those types of guys.

 

I do think it's imperative offensively to be able to avoid obvious passing down plays - hence you see a lot more passing out of heavy sets on conflicted downs with success.  It's the age old argument back in the Vrabel years of how dumb it was to run run pass against good defenses.

[oldschool]

30 minutes ago, BudsOilers said:

The numbers do show a bit of decline in that data.

 

There's always adjustments between the offenses and defenses year to year.  You definitely see defenses like Philly's and the MacDonald/Minter types having some success with their schemes.  Getting guys who can be versatile run or pass is key as opposed to the 3 WR/3 CB's world that was huge a few years ago is one piece of that for example but not everyone has those types of guys.

 

I do think it's imperative offensively to be able to avoid obvious passing down plays - hence you see a lot more passing out of heavy sets on conflicted downs with success.  It's the age old argument back in the Vrabel years of how dumb it was to run run pass against good defenses.

 

1% difference over the course of the last 8 years is not enough to claim Teams are stopping explosive plays therefore complimentary football is back in vogue. The truth is the teams that win the superbowl more often than not are in the top 10 on off and def and a big part of that is their ability to limit explosive plays on def while getting them on off.

[XAEA12]

1 hour ago, BudsOilers said:

The contracts made the old school way impossible unless teams stop overdrafting QB's, which they've shown zero desire to do.  You need to know by the start of year 4 or you get into the Kyler/Lawrence/Jones/Tua situations where the market price for a vet QB is the massive overpay, that's arguably worse than overdrafting a guy on the rookie deals.

 

On top of it, none of these guys you mentioned would be considered elite/top tier QB's.  The lesson teams should be taking is that the idea that you better build a team around them.  Only Goff and Darnold have winning playoff records and in SEA's case they had the best balance of offense, defense, and special teams play of anyone last season.

 

 

 

Elite players show who they are before the end of their first contract. But most teams aren't going to have an elite QB, that's why they're elite. At the end of the day it's a team sport and, especially lately, the better team wins.

[oldschool]

1 hour ago, OILERMAN said:

 

After Callahan was fired they stopped using all the 3 WR sets as much, played more heavy sets, ran the ball and protected the poor pass pro. 

 

He was put in a much friendlier environment 

 

The Titans still lead the league last year in percentage of plays run out of 11 personnel even with Callahan being fired in week 5. I've posted the numbers before, outside of a few outliers like the 49ers and Ravens, 90% of the league runs 11/12 the vast majority of the time. The Rams simply swap out 12 for 13. Being able to pass out of heavy sets has been a staple of NFL offenses for 40+ years.

[oldschool]

The really good offenses around the league can run out 11 and pass out of 12. The bad offenses are predictable formation and personnel wise. I've said it over and over, the Titans should have run Henry out of 11 with a big WR in tight far more often.

[BudsOilers]

12 minutes ago, oldschool said:

 

1% difference over the course of the last 8 years is not enough to claim Teams are stopping explosive plays therefore complimentary football is back in vogue. The truth is the teams that win the superbowl more often than not are in the top 10 on off and def and a big part of that is their ability to limit explosive plays on def while getting them on off.

Well I think what you are missing in this is the personnel grouping data, which just isn't as easy to find anymore.

 

I'm absolutely sure that more explosive plays are coming out of heavy sets than prior even if the overall numbers are relatively similar.  That of course coincides with the idea that the pure drop back passing game out of 11 is seeing far more 2 deep and combo coverages as opposed to the single high days.  The offensive response of course is to go heavy set and create mismatches.

[oldschool]

12 minutes ago, BudsOilers said:

Well I think what you are missing in this is the personnel grouping data, which just isn't as easy to find anymore.

 

I'm absolutely sure that more explosive plays are coming out of heavy sets than prior even if the overall numbers are relatively similar.  That of course coincides with the idea that the pure drop back passing game out of 11 is seeing far more 2 deep and combo coverages as opposed to the single high days.  The offensive response of course is to go heavy set and create mismatches.

 

what you describe isn't new....

[cenj]

Of all the things to worry about on this team, Cam is not one of them. That's different than betting on him becoming Mahomes in year 2, after Callahan and company.

 

He had a non-traditional path in college. He showed tremendous growth at every stage, but it's not like he went to a top 10 program and stayed there for for years. He was always going to take a bit to reach his potential.

 

I still think he has a strong arm and potentially elite processing and decisiveness, along with ideal intangibles (obsessed with the game, reflective and critical of himself, natural leadership). His mechanics are sloppy and he's still learning the game. 

 

I would be shocked if he doesn't end up a top end QB. Eventually, the game will slow down, he'll know exactly what everyone needs to be doing (and will get them on the same page), and he'll clean up some sloppy footwork. When that happens, I think you're going to see elite processing and accuracy. The natural ability and work ethic is there.

 

Edited Sunday at 08:29 PM by cenj

[OILERMAN]

2 hours ago, BudsOilers said:

Well I think what you are missing in this is the personnel grouping data, which just isn't as easy to find anymore.

 

I'm absolutely sure that more explosive plays are coming out of heavy sets than prior even if the overall numbers are relatively similar.  That of course coincides with the idea that the pure drop back passing game out of 11 is seeing far more 2 deep and combo coverages as opposed to the single high days.  The offensive response of course is to go heavy set and create mismatches.

 

I'd also bet there are more explosive runs now vs passes

[oldschool]

2 minutes ago, OILERMAN said:

 

I'd also bet there are more explosive runs now vs passes

 

wrong again. The data is upthread.

[Number9]

1 hour ago, cenj said:

 

He had a non-traditional path in college.

He's never been developed.  How many QBs developed like Cam in the last two decades do you imagine could have excelled to become a first round pick, don't even mention #1?  He gets drafted by the Titans who put bc and his paw in charge of his development.  After running those two off, he's on his second whole new everything.

 

As many have said, year three will probably be when we see the beginning of Cam Ward-The Man's greatness.