Trump tariff thread

[Jamalisms]

Just to be clear, anyone with actual insight can feel free to PM me their analysis suggesting we've reached bottom. 

[chef]

57 minutes ago, OilerTitanHybrid said:

 

Who knows how long a bottom will take with Donny doing his thing.  No telling really.  I started today helping some guy (not a friend, but a friend's friend) try and get his car done to be sold off, so if a bottom happens, I won't be paying any attention to it.  Will be too busy with that dude's stuff.  Not helping him anymore when the draft gets here though.  Will be working into the early night until then.

 

Most of the stuff that happens with Trump these days I read about on here, not the news, cause I really don't follow that crap like people do on here.  I just stay the investing course, like I've always done.  Can still trade during the day if need be, but barely even do that as much as I used to.  More like a week to week or month to month swing trader type of guy nowadays.

 

And after seeing how stooges (and their alt accounts) are on TR these days, why would I even want to help anyone make cash off a bottom anymore?  So they can laugh and send a PM to their forum buddies on how they got me to make them cash, then trash me again when the need arises over some other stupid shit on here?  Nope, I'm not feeling it.

 

I've been right so many damn times on here I've lost count.  From posting screenies of my sports wagering winnings, to making stock calls for cash, covid bottom calls, figuring out early on that Cam would go first overall, you name it.

 

But yet, some stooge (maybe even somebodies alt account - who the hell knows on TR) who is wrong 90% of the time on here, is just waiting with baited breath to call me out on something in hopes that I might miss a call if I make enough of them.  Ya, I really want to help that guy make some cash on here.  Nah bro, I really don't think I want to.

Fair enough.

 

Just sort of a fair and no risk message board game to see how it plays out.

 

Same here where though I read a ton of articles I never watch news.  This board often useful consolidation site in terms of news.  

[oldschool]

1 hour ago, OilerTitanHybrid said:

 

Who knows how long a bottom will take with Donny doing his thing.  No telling really.  I started today helping some guy (not a friend, but a friend's friend) try and get his car done to be sold off, so if a bottom happens, I won't be paying any attention to it.  Will be too busy with that dude's stuff.  Not helping him anymore when the draft gets here though.  Will be working into the early night until then.

 

Most of the stuff that happens with Trump these days I read about on here, not the news, cause I really don't follow that crap like people do on here.  I just stay the investing course, like I've always done.  Can still trade during the day if need be, but barely even do that as much as I used to.  More like a week to week or month to month swing trader type of guy nowadays.

 

And after seeing how stooges (and their alt accounts) are on TR these days, why would I even want to help anyone make cash off a bottom anymore?  So they can laugh and send a PM to their forum buddies on how they got me to make them cash, then trash me again when the need arises over some other stupid shit on here?  Nope, I'm not feeling it.

 

I've been right so many damn times on here I've lost count.  From posting screenies of my sports wagering winnings, to making stock calls for cash, covid bottom calls, figuring out early on that Cam would go first overall, you name it.

 

But yet, some stooge (maybe even somebodies alt account - who the hell knows on TR) who is wrong 90% of the time on here, is just waiting with baited breath to call me out on something in hopes that I might miss a call if I make enough of them.  Ya, I really want to help that guy make some cash on here.  Nah bro, I really don't think I want to.

 

Who are you talking about in such a bitch ass passive aggressive way? 

[9 Nines]

2 hours ago, Jamalisms said:

Just to be clear, anyone with actual insight can feel free to PM me their analysis suggesting we've reached bottom. 

When a 1, 3 and 5 year S&P chart MACD cross up red to green - it will first happen on a 1 year chart, then the 3 and then the 5 - It will probably take about a month to 6 weeks to cross up on all three because it will probably go up fairly big at first or longer if more subdued. The market will probably be up 5 to 15% from a bottom at that point but it will be a safe place to re-enter. 

Edited April 9, 2025 by 9 Nines

[pat]

The goal of the tariffs is to awaken weaken the dollar.

 

Passive investing in US equities depends on strong dollar as much as it depends on compound interest.  The tariffs are an attack on every retirement plan and every health plan.

Edited April 9, 2025 by pat

[9 Nines]

34 minutes ago, pat said:

The goal of the tariffs is to awaken the dollar.

 

Passive investing in US equities depends on strong dollar as much as it depends on compound interest.  The tariffs are an attack on every retirement plan and every health plan.

 

A lot of reporters have explained it lately - read business opinion on the tariffs (I have seen the following repeated in many such reports.) 

For over 40 years, Trump has been saying for that any trade deficit is bad and that if a trade deficit exists it means the US is being ripped off by that country. That is not what they mean but that is what Trump really thinks.   As one reporter I heard today say, you have trade surpluses and deficits with all kinds of counterparties.  They are neither bad nor good - it is just how trade works.  For example, all of us have trade surpluses with our employers and we all have trade deficits with grocery stores because our transactions with both are one sided - that is how the dollars flow and while some goods we buy at a grocery store might cost more than at others or someone not being paid enough as others make for the same position, no one in those transactions is directly ripping the other off as Trump means it.

Trump does not understand this because he is a moron who for his entire life has been sheltered from the real world, a situation allowing him to imagine this BS he thinks is real. 

I really think it is that simple - he is just being his idiot self with no grand scheme behind it (he could luck into a scheme because that is what he is, a charlatan but I do not think he has any scheme planned from the start.)   Making it a grand plan is giving him way too much credit I think. 

Edited April 9, 2025 by 9 Nines

[Jamalisms]

I'm about 70% invested, currently. In terms of my more fluid investments, at least. I'm happy to get a likely gain on 30%, potentially big gain, with 70% set it and forget it.

[9 Nines]

23 minutes ago, Jamalisms said:

I'm about 70% invested, currently. In terms of my more fluid investments, at least. I'm happy to get a likely gain on 30%, potentially big gain, with 70% set it and forget it.

That is wise.  I was flustered until last Wednesday wondering how the market was not down and worried I did the wrong thing.  The only thing that worries me long term is the recency-bias in assuming the US is where to invest.  Trump might make it so bad, that another market takes the world lead as new trade alliances are formed and if s, that is where most of invested money should be - that really could happen. 

[OILERMAN]

I'm 100% invested in 401ks and Roths and am not moving anything. I won't tap into those accounts for 20 years. 

 

But I'm retiring in 3 years and will be using my brokerage account combined with pensions. My brokerage account is made up of cash, corporate bond funds and large cap dividend funds. It doesn't have big returns but doesn't go down nearly as much. 

 

I'm pretty well insulated from a long term down turn if that's what happens. 

[9 Nines]

 

Inflation vs. Deflation: What’s the Bigger Risk Right Now? (April 2025)

Clues That Deflation Risk Is Rising:

Broad commodity price declines (oil, copper, aluminum) suggest weakening global demand.

China's slowdown is dragging on raw materials and global growth.

Gold is rising, not as a production input, but as a store of value — a response to financial risk, not economic strength.

Bond yields are falling, and yield curves remain inverted — classic signs of deflationary expectations.

Real interest rates are still high, and liquidity remains tight — slowing down lending and spending.

Why Inflation Still Feels Sticky:

Services and housing inflation remain stubborn in U.S. CPI.

Some fiscal spending lags are still rippling through the system.

Labor markets remain relatively tight.

Geopolitical shocks (Red Sea shipping, etc.) can cause short-term price spikes.

The Takeaway:

Deflation risk is rising, possibly outweighing inflation risk short-term.

But long-term inflation risks haven’t disappeared — gold buying and de-dollarization trends reflect that.

The real problem might be policy whiplash between inflation and deflation — volatility is the new normal.

Edited April 9, 2025 by 9 Nines

[Starkiller]

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-says-us-will-soon-announce-tariffs-pharmaceutical-imports-2025-04-09/?utm_source=reddit.com
 

President Donald Trump on Tuesday said the U.S. will soon announce a "major" tariff on pharmaceutical imports.

 

Speaking to an event at the National Republican Congressional Committee, Trump said the tariff will incentivize drug companies to move their operations to the U.S.

[MadMax]

Fukkin lunatic.

[9 Nines]

10 minutes ago, Starkiller said:

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-says-us-will-soon-announce-tariffs-pharmaceutical-imports-2025-04-09/?utm_source=reddit.com
 

President Donald Trump on Tuesday said the U.S. will soon announce a "major" tariff on pharmaceutical imports.

 

Speaking to an event at the National Republican Congressional Committee, Trump said the tariff will incentivize drug companies to move their operations to the U.S.

Ifffer. 

Edited April 9, 2025 by 9 Nines

[IrishTitansFan]

4 hours ago, Starkiller said:

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-says-us-will-soon-announce-tariffs-pharmaceutical-imports-2025-04-09/?utm_source=reddit.com
 

President Donald Trump on Tuesday said the U.S. will soon announce a "major" tariff on pharmaceutical imports.

 

Speaking to an event at the National Republican Congressional Committee, Trump said the tariff will incentivize drug companies to move their operations to the U.S.

This is going to be a disaster. This is mainly targeting US companies operating out of Ireland, but the supply chains and talent are so embedded, and public contracts are so long that they can't and won't easily move out. They are going to wait to see what happens and charge the American tax payer and people the tariff

[oldschool]

The system is under major stress now.

 

https://x.com/Geiger_Capital/status/1909821667188081078?t=zwNTzTaWvp-HcZPfp2EwtQ&s=19