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QB Tiers - Mike Sando


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The results reflect voting from 50 NFL coaches and executives, including six general managers, eight head coaches, 10 evaluators, 12 coordinators, six quarterback coaches and seven execs whose specialties include analytics, game management and the salary cap. The remaining ballot was put together by four members of one team’s personnel department.

 

The panel placed 35 veteran quarterbacks into one of five tiers, from best (Tier 1) to worst (Tier 5). Quarterbacks were then ranked by average vote and placed into tiers based on vote distribution, beginning with Aaron Rodgers, whose 1.00 average vote reflected his status as a unanimous Tier 1 selection.

 

The survey excludes rookies because voters have not seen them play in the NFL. More than one quarterback is featured for teams with unsettled starting jobs.

 

https://theathletic.com/3443022/2022/07/25/nfl-best-quarterbacks-tiers?source=user-shared-article

 

TIER 1

A Tier 1 quarterback can carry his team each week. The team wins because of him. He expertly handles pure passing situations. He has no real holes in his game.

 

1. Aaron Rodgers 

2. Patrick Mahomes

3. Tom Brady

4. Josh Allen

5. Justin Herbert

6. Joe Burrow

 

TIER 2

A Tier 2 quarterback can carry his team sometimes but not as consistently. He can handle pure passing situations in doses and/or possesses other dimensions that are special enough to elevate him above Tier 3. He has a hole or two in his game.

 

7. Matt Stafford

8. Russell Wilson

9. Deshaun Watson

10. Lamar Jackson

11. Dak Prescott

12. Derek Carr

13. Kyler Murray

14. Matt Ryan

 

TIER 3

A Tier 3 quarterback is a legitimate starter but needs a heavier running game and/or defensive component to win. A lower-volume dropback passing offense suits him best.

 

15. Kirk Cousins

16. Jimmy Garoppolo

17. Ryan Tannehill

 

Tannehill climbed into Tier 2 last season after a steady ascent, only to slip following a one-and-done playoff performance as the AFC’s top seed.

 

“He is probably a 3, maybe a 3-plus,” a coach who overlapped with Tannehill in a previous season said. “My heart broke for him that he played so shitty in that playoff game. He was having such a good year, really two years. But I think that is what he is. Unfortunately, in a couple of times they’ve asked him to be the guy to win the games, he hasn’t been able to do it.”

 

Derrick Henry’s return to health could be pivotal. Tannehill averaged an additional 2.1 yards per pass attempt on early downs last season when Henry was on the field. His EPA per pass play (counting sacks) increased sevenfold with Henry in those situations. His EPA per pass attempt more than doubled.

 

“Tannehill relied on the team more than the team relied on him, because in the moments when he could have brought the team back, especially when they played against Kansas City in the AFC Championship, he couldn’t make it happen,” a quarterbacks coach said. “I’m still waiting for that defining moment from Ryan Tannehill. It still hasn’t happened yet, and that’s why I have him as a Tier 3. He’s got Tier 2 potential and talent, but just in the big moments, it just hasn’t translated.”

 

An offensive coach who placed Tannehill, Cousins and Ryan in the second tier thought the cutoff should fall after them.

 

“I haven’t changed on Tannehill at all,” this coach said. “He is doing exactly what he does. He is the AFC version of Kirk Cousins. The last two years he has been very successful, very efficient. If you replaced Tannehill with Matt Ryan, would you be as successful? I believe you would. If you replaced him with Kirk Cousins, would you be the same? I think you’d be the same because those are all good quarterbacks. Now, if you replaced him with some of these Tier 3 guys, would they be as good? I don’t think so.”

 

18. Mac Jones

19. Baker Mayfield

20 (T). Jalen Hurts

20 (T). Carson Wentz

22. Jared Goff

23. Trevor Lawrence

24. Jameis Winston

 

TIER 4

A Tier 4 quarterback could be an unproven player (not enough information for voters to classify) or a veteran who ideally would not start all 17 games.

 

25. Justin Fields

26. Tua Tagovailoa

27. David Mills

28. Zach Wilson

29. Trey Lance

30. Daniel Jones

31. Marcus Mariota

32. Sam Darnold

33. Mitch Trubisky

34. Drew Lock

35. Geno Smith

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I like the list but I would argue that Matt Ryan no longer belongs in the tier 2 category.  I would also argue that Matt Stafford and Russell Wilson deserve to be in Tier 1 more than either Burrow or Herbert.  Consistency over time at an elite production level should mean something.

 

I would also argue that Tannehill performed like a tier 3 guy last year and most of his career but still has a chance to climb back into the tier 2 category.  He's an anomaly over some of these other QBs because he's shown he CAN do it over a prolonged period of time in, if he's in the right system and has enough help.  The author obviously alludes to that by saying he has tier 2 potential and talent so I would agree with that assessment overall.  

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I don't think it's far off, but to ding Tannehill for not showing up in the big moment when they have Herbert and Allen in tier 1, seems a little hypocritical.  Not saying Tannehill is better than them, but they haven't exactly led their team to the promised land either.  

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5 minutes ago, Righteous said:

How many of those Tier 3 QB's do you think can win a SB?  That is about how every NFL personnel person sees Tannehill.  The takes on his greatness on this Board is ridiculous.

 

He's the best QB we've we've had since McNair, and probably a better pure passer than even him.  I could give two shits what the NFL personnel people think when many of them are responsible for drafting shitty QBs like those listed in the other tiers.  If we want to put our faith in a mental-midget with accuracy issues, then we deserve the 10+ years of purgatory it will bring.

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17 minutes ago, Righteous said:

How many of those Tier 3 QB's do you think can win a SB?  That is about how every NFL personnel person sees Tannehill.  The takes on his greatness on this Board is ridiculous.

I have been fair.  If Henry can be Henry, Tanny can hit open targets. 

If fans run him down and boo him, the 2022 season is going to suck.

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18 minutes ago, IowaOiler said:

 

He's the best QB we've we've had since McNair, and probably a better pure passer than even him.  I could give two shits what the NFL personnel people think when many of them are responsible for drafting shitty QBs like those listed in the other tiers.  If we want to put our faith in a mental-midget with accuracy issues, then we deserve the 10+ years of purgatory it will bring.

Hooray...He is better than Locker, Young and Mariota.  Let's put the fucker in the HOF!  Such silly ass takes on this Board.  Guess what, you are not going to win a SB with Tannehill or the mental midgets.  Get the fuck over it.  

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25 minutes ago, IowaOiler said:

 

He's the best QB we've we've had since McNair, and probably a better pure passer than even him.  I could give two shits what the NFL personnel people think when many of them are responsible for drafting shitty QBs like those listed in the other tiers.  If we want to put our faith in a mental-midget with accuracy issues, then we deserve the 10+ years of purgatory it will bring.

And guess what?  He is in the tier of the mental midgets (not even first, LOL).  Do don't let your fanboydom blind you.  LOL!

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I'd rank him higher than That but the blurb about him was dead on. He's got more potential than we've seen but too many times we've turned to him to win us playoff a games and he couldn't do it. Whatever excuse you want to give for it, he couldn't do it and at that level it's about results. The voter who cited the KC game as an example gets it. 

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