QB Tiers - Mike Sando

[StephenIsLegend]

I still believe the sting of the Bengals loss is affecting people more than it should.

I'm a Tannehill fan (not a huge one like other posters, but definitely a fan) and think if he were in the situation again, he would come in clutch this time.  I would be willing to bet therapy probably helped him quite a bit and I am hoping/betting we see a very good version of Tannehill this season.

 

As for some of the others..  Herbert has put up the gaudy stats, but has yet to show anything in the playoffs.  I don't think Burrow is on his level as a passer yet, but Burrow can light it up at times.  He just seems very streaky right now.

 

[Number9]

11 minutes ago, big2033 said:

 

He's a "legitimate starter but needs a heavier running game and/or defensive component to win."

 

We have both of those elements. We can win, like we've been winning.

We have Henry coming off major injury.  A new FA at TE and WR.  A rookie WR.  An interesting rookie at TE.  I think without looking at the schedule, we start slow.  Titan fan rarely comes, but when he does he expects perfection.  Boo!  Boo!  Titan might be ahead 10-3 in 4th, but Titan fan wants everything.  

[RisingTitanFan]

2 hours ago, big2033 said:

 

No they dinged him on not being able to carry the team when needed. Not on just the big moment.

 

Herbert and Allen, though they have their faults, obviously are the heavy lifters in their respective offenses.

Not really an apples to apples comparison though.  Herbert and Allen have the entire game to "put the team on their backs".  Tannehill has to wait until the game has gotten out of hand and the run is clearly not effective.  Some might even argue that the coaching staff is painfully slow to recognize when the run game has become ineffective.

 

What happens if you only let Allen and Herbert cut it loose after they are 2 scores down with only 2 quarters to play?  Not saying they can't do it.  I actually think both of these guys are insanely talented, just saying their overall output would look way different, just like Tannehills does.

 

It isn't a stretch to say this team is built to run first and run often.  Last year Tannehill has over 100 less attempts than either Allen or Herbert, but more sacks.   The Titans aren't built to become a pass heavy team.  The more they attempt it the more they begin to replicate the environment Tannehill had in Miami with bad pass protection and a gameplan that doesn't keep defenses honest(which is a very bad environment for ANY QB).  The run game forces rushers to stay in their lanes, and keeps the LB tight to the line till they diagnose the run/pass.  IF the run isn't working the entire functionality of the team starts to become ineffective.  That is all before you even get to the QB. 

 

Tannehill's effectiveness on 3rd down plays is what has made him special as a Titan, but last year it was painful the amount of times he was asked to throw on 3rd and medium and 3rd and long.  It was WAY too high of a percentage of his overall attempts.  In a previous post I attempted to break it down a bit, so without digging up old posts the highlights are Tannehill was in 3rd and medium or more on 27% of his total throws.  Josh Allen as comparison was at 19%.  That is a huge difference.  

 

IF you believe he is average and nothing more, than you honestly should be amazed at how well he did in that situation last year.  I suspect if he would have actually delivered on those type of downs with average success rate you would have seen a bunch of games get out of control, and any hope of winning the 1st seed would have gone out the window by week 10.  

 

I'm not going to make excuses for the Cincy game.  That was bad and Tannehill has owned it.  He needs to play better in Playoff games.  However, it isn't realistic for him to transform the type of team Titans are either.  If you want him to put up elite passer stats then get him good pass protection, talent depth at WR, some duel threat TEs and some solid recieving backs.  I'm hopeful the team is moving in that direction this year, but we will have to see how it plays out.  I personally have OL and WR as question marks.

 

[big2033]

5 minutes ago, RisingTitanFan said:

Not really an apples to apples comparison though.  Herbert and Allen have the entire game to "put the team on their backs".  Tannehill has to wait until the game has gotten out of hand and the run is clearly not effective.  Some might even argue that the coaching staff is painfully slow to recognize when the run game has become ineffective.

 

What happens if you only let Allen and Herbert cut it loose after they are 2 scores down with only 2 quarters to play?  Not saying they can't do it.  I actually think both of these guys are insanely talented, just saying their overall output would look way different, just like Tannehills does.

 

It isn't a stretch to say this team is built to run first and run often.  Last year Tannehill has over 100 less attempts than either Allen or Herbert, but more sacks.   The Titans aren't built to become a pass heavy team.  The more they attempt it the more they begin to replicate the environment Tannehill had in Miami with bad pass protection and a gameplan that doesn't keep defenses honest(which is a very bad environment for ANY QB).  The run game forces rushers to stay in their lanes, and keeps the LB tight to the line till they diagnose the run/pass.  IF the run isn't working the entire functionality of the team starts to become ineffective.  That is all before you even get to the QB. 

 

Tannehill's effectiveness on 3rd down plays is what has made him special as a Titan, but last year it was painful the amount of times he was asked to throw on 3rd and medium and 3rd and long.  It was WAY too high of a percentage of his overall attempts.  In a previous post I attempted to break it down a bit, so without digging up old posts the highlights are Tannehill was in 3rd and medium or more on 27% of his total throws.  Josh Allen as comparison was at 19%.  That is a huge difference.  

 

IF you believe he is average and nothing more, than you honestly should be amazed at how well he did in that situation last year.  I suspect if he would have actually delivered on those type of downs with average success rate you would have seen a bunch of games get out of control, and any hope of winning the 1st seed would have gone out the window by week 10.  

 

I'm not going to make excuses for the Cincy game.  That was bad and Tannehill has owned it.  He needs to play better in Playoff games.  However, it isn't realistic for him to transform the type of team Titans are either.  If you want him to put up elite passer stats then get him good pass protection, talent depth at WR, some duel threat TEs and some solid recieving backs.  I'm hopeful the team is moving in that direction this year, but we will have to see how it plays out.  I personally have OL and WR as question marks.

 

 

There's a lot here ... but I'll refer to .. AGAIN ... the GMS and coaches that this thread is based upon:

 

"A Tier 3 quarterback is a legitimate starter but needs a heavier running game and/or defensive component to win. A lower-volume dropback passing offense suits him best."

 

He's had opportunities to be in a high-volume passing attack in the past (with the Dolphins etc.) and he's largely struggled ... regardless of what you feel about his supporting staff.

 

This is how he's been scouted. This is why he's been put in this offense, this is why he's successful.

 

[dcblanton]

3 hours ago, logicals said:

 

My latest litmus test of whether a fan doesn’t know what they’re talking about is if they list Burrow over Herbert.

 

.

You are just jealous that Burrow did what Allen couldn't.  He drug a far inferior team all the way to the Super Bowl.

 

Allen can't get a stacked team past the Chiefs.  So, of course you have to talk down the QB who did what your hero couldn't.

 

Allen even had the benefit of the #1 Defense in the NFL last year.  

 

Your envy is so transparent.

 

Hey, at least you are in a weak division, so the Bills should be able to win the division again.

[Justafan]

Lot of recency bias in this tier rankings.  Of course this is all subjective so they can vote anyway they want.  Just wouldn't be the order I would put them in.  At the end of the day it matters about as much as the brand of toilet paper I used to wipe my ass this morning.  

[RisingTitanFan]

2 hours ago, big2033 said:

 

There's a lot here ... but I'll refer to .. AGAIN ... the GMS and coaches that this thread is based upon:

 

"A Tier 3 quarterback is a legitimate starter but needs a heavier running game and/or defensive component to win. A lower-volume dropback passing offense suits him best."

 

He's had opportunities to be in a high-volume passing attack in the past (with the Dolphins etc.) and he's largely struggled ... regardless of what you feel about his supporting staff.

 

This is how he's been scouted. This is why he's been put in this offense, this is why he's successful.

 

Would these experts have successfully estimated what Tannehill would have done when he came to the Titans?  If your answer is no, then you need to dig deeper to why their analysis was bad back then. 

 

IF they are making the same mistakes with Tannehill now as they did then, what would that tell you about their analysis?

 

Tannehill is always going to have an uphill battle recovering his reputation from his time in Miami.  Until these execs and GMs look past those Miami days as a bad team that gave a faulty picture of what Tannehill was, they will continue to underestimate him.  Cincy game didn't help with that reuputation recovery, but very few other QBs on that list are going to suffer such a massive swing from a bad playoff game.

 

3rd tier QBs on run heavy offenses don't continually ask their QB to bail them out on 3rd and longs.  The concept is a viable approach to building a team around a 3rd tier QB, but the plan is to eat clock and limit the number of times the other team gets the ball, in short, keep it a low scoring game.  You don't have a running team with a tier 3 QB and manage to become a top scoring team in the league.  

[big2033]

14 minutes ago, RisingTitanFan said:

Would these experts have successfully estimated what Tannehill would have done when he came to the Titans?  If your answer is no, then you need to dig deeper to why their analysis was bad back then. 

 

IF they are making the same mistakes with Tannehill now as they did then, what would that tell you about their analysis?

 

Tannehill is always going to have an uphill battle recovering his reputation from his time in Miami.  Until these execs and GMs look past those Miami days as a bad team that gave a faulty picture of what Tannehill was, they will continue to underestimate him.  Cincy game didn't help with that reuputation recovery, but very few other QBs on that list are going to suffer such a massive swing from a bad playoff game.

 

3rd tier QBs on run heavy offenses don't continually ask their QB to bail them out on 3rd and longs.  The concept is a viable approach to building a team around a 3rd tier QB, but the plan is to eat clock and limit the number of times the other team gets the ball, in short, keep it a low scoring game.  You don't have a running team with a tier 3 QB and manage to become a top scoring team in the league.  

 

These are GMs and coaches who are you arguing with? They scouted him this is what they believe he is. 

 

Eventually, you have to trust the film and stop believing in rainbows. It's been 9 seasons. And his best seasons have been in a ... " lower-volume dropback passing offense."

 

What more proof do you want? 

[OILERMAN]

Tannehill has a body of work as the Titans QB that is excellent, it’s not a dream or wishful thinking 

 

The Titans improved the offense around him, they correctly knew that was the problem last season 

[big2033]

Just now, OILERMAN said:

Tannehill has a body of work as the Titans QB that is excellent, it’s not a dream or wishful thinking 

 

The Titans improved the offense around him, they correctly knew that was the problem last season 

 

Yep it's excellent ... in a "lower-volume dropback passing offense that suits him best."

[RisingTitanFan]

1 hour ago, big2033 said:

 

These are GMs and coaches who are you arguing with? They scouted him this is what they believe he is. 

 

Eventually, you have to trust the film and stop believing in rainbows. It's been 9 seasons. And his best seasons have been in a ... " lower-volume dropback passing offense."

 

What more proof do you want? 

You are welcome to believe them.  They were wrong before they will be wrong again.  Its just funny they will once again be wrong on the same guy is all...

[big2033]

5 minutes ago, RisingTitanFan said:

You are welcome to believe them.  They were wrong before they will be wrong again.  Its just funny they will once again be wrong on the same guy is all...

 

He was drafted high ... were they wrong about that? I'll def trust them over fans with obvious skin in the game.

 

These are people who draft players and play against us. If they're wrong, he should be torching them. 

[RisingTitanFan]

4 minutes ago, big2033 said:

 

He was drafted high ... were they wrong about that? I'll def trust them over fans with obvious skin in the game.

 

These are people who draft players and play against us. If they're wrong, he should be torching them. 

ummm I don't know how to tell you this, but he did torch them.  He has been a key part of a top scoring offense 2 of 3 years, and the 1 year the scoring was down, he still lead them to a number 1 seed.  

 

Before you start your cyclical arguement of "Its low volume passing" Do you at least agree they have never attempted to give him the pieces of a high volume passing team?

 

 

[big2033]

6 minutes ago, RisingTitanFan said:

ummm I don't know how to tell you this, but he did torch them.  He has been a key part of a top scoring offense 2 of 3 years, and the 1 year the scoring was down, he still lead them to a number 1 seed.  

 

Before you start your cyclical arguement of "Its low volume passing" Do you at least agree they have never attempted to give him the pieces of a high volume passing team?

 

 

 

He was definitely a part. 

 

And he's def had enough to have a high volume passing attack. 

 

Again, argue with the GMs and our own coaches. It's pretty obvious we see him the same way the league does.

 

Or maybe we know Tannehill is a star in waiting but have just decided we like running better? 

[ctm]

The low volume passing attack starts with the organizational philosophy of the GM and HC, not the QB.