Rogue Posted March 12, 2022 Report Share Posted March 12, 2022 14 minutes ago, Titans279 said: I know you want your WW3 @tgo but hopefully we won't get it. Francis Fukuyama has 12 predictions. Here's the first one https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/preparing-for-defeat/ And this... Quote The Biden administration’s decisions not to declare a no-fly zone or help transfer Polish MiGs were both good ones; they've kept their heads during a very emotional time. It is much better to have the Ukrainians defeat the Russians on their own, depriving Moscow of the excuse that NATO attacked them, as well as avoiding all the obvious escalatory possibilities. The Polish MiGs in particular would not add much to Ukrainian capabilities. Much more important is a continuing supply of Javelins, Stingers, TB2s, medical supplies, comms equipment, and intel sharing. I assume that Ukrainian forces are already being vectored by NATO intelligence operating from outside Ukraine. Titans279 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
tgo Posted March 12, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 12, 2022 They may yet be good decisions by the administration. as long as Ukraine wins and can utilize other Western defensive weaponry to win this war. Anything short of a free and independent Ukraine and a Russian military and economic defeat, as well as regime change in Russia, is a failure by the West. Global Democracy must rise to this historic occasion. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Titans279 Posted March 12, 2022 Report Share Posted March 12, 2022 1 minute ago, tgo said: They may yet be good decisions by the administration. as long as Ukraine wins and can utilize other Western defensive weaponry to win this war. Anything short of a free and independent Ukraine and a Russian military and economic defeat, as well as regime change in Russia, is a failure by the West. Global Democracy must rise to this historic occasion. Posted from a Trader Joe's checkout line. tgo, IsntLifeFunny, ChesterCopperpot1, and 1 other 4 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
pat Posted March 12, 2022 Report Share Posted March 12, 2022 12 minutes ago, Titans279 said: Posted from a Trader Joe's checkout line. If you knew anyone in Ukraine, this cynicism would evaporate. tgo 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
tgo Posted March 12, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 12, 2022 (edited) 36 minutes ago, Titans279 said: Posted from a Trader Joe's checkout line. No, I was posting from my nice comfy Volvo SUV driving through the Suburbs, actually. (Maybe to Trader Joe’s, maybe not) Really though, I have a few friends in the military - one of them is an intelligence analyst in the Army Reserves now and we’ve been trying to convince him not to go over to Ukraine to volunteer to fight, but he already has gotten clearance from his commanding officer to take leave and go so we’ll see. He’s likely to deploy to Poland very soon anyway though for the US, he’d be more useful in that role I think. My brother was an M1A1 Abrams tank operator for several years, and he’s for more military intervention in this situation than I am, btw. Edited March 12, 2022 by tgo reo 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
tgo Posted March 12, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 12, 2022 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Titans279 Posted March 12, 2022 Report Share Posted March 12, 2022 1 hour ago, pat said: If you knew anyone in Ukraine, this cynicism would evaporate. There’s a reason that even experts who know Ukrainians are not as hawkish as tgo. Direct military involvement by NATO will be very bad. I was not making light of the situation for Ukraine, but knowing people there isn’t reason for us to get involved. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
chef Posted March 12, 2022 Report Share Posted March 12, 2022 1 hour ago, pat said: If you knew anyone in Ukraine, this cynicism would evaporate. Yep. We've got a couple Maui friends from Ukraine with family there now. One has her sister and mom there. Her sister's husband going nowhere - the men really are staying to fight. But she has an infant without a Visa, and the US (?) won't take them because of that. [Info from the girlfriend so not totally clear on all that] Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
chef Posted March 12, 2022 Report Share Posted March 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, Titans279 said: There’s a reason that even experts who know Ukrainians are not as hawkish as tgo. Direct military involvement by NATO will be very bad. I was not making light of the situation for Ukraine, but knowing people there isn’t reason for us to get involved. I don't think being familiar with the people and their situation = return to DEFCON 1. More like being well-informed, sympathetic and maintaining a realistic viewpoint of we can be done to support these people without making the entire world worse off for it. It's been brutally clear to almost all it's Putin (and those under his thumb one way or another) vs almost The World at this point. Really challenging to see how anything plays out well as long as he is around. At best there is a withdrawal with some likely concessions while he spins it via state media as a win, and he'll continue poking and prodding at the Enemies of Russia until the end of his days. The real long game question now is what does Russia look like post-Putin? He'll surely try to install someone who follows his agenda, but will they have the same power he wields to keep that going? And will the people ranging from the oligarchs to the proletariat maintain support for the next leader? I believe following this Ukraine invasions the oligarchs shoot for something more of a (continued) corrupt semi-democracy, finding ways to decentralize power from the top while trying to get back to the earlier status quo of the pigs in the house all eating well while trying to sell the other animals in the barnyard on their new freedom. In some ways, become their version of America, where it is less important who gets elected as long as you can control them financially. pat, and begooode 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
reo Posted March 12, 2022 Report Share Posted March 12, 2022 1 hour ago, tgo said: No, I was posting from my nice comfy Volvo SUV driving through the Suburbs, actually. (Maybe to Trader Joe’s, maybe not) Really though, I have a few friends in the military - one of them is an intelligence analyst in the Army Reserves now and we’ve been trying to convince him not to go over to Ukraine to volunteer to fight, but he already has gotten clearance from his commanding officer to take leave and go so we’ll see. He’s likely to deploy to Poland very soon anyway though for the US, he’d be more useful in that role I think. My brother was an M1A1 Abrams tank operator for several years, and he’s for more military intervention in this situation than I am, btw. Right now the Russians don't have the troops available to them to take Kyiv imo. So it'll depend on if Putin will give up or escalate things.. and then it'll depend on how much he escalates it. I still think we could very easily end up in Ukraine before all is said and done but it won't be from what's going on now. IsntLifeFunny, and tgo 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
tgo Posted March 12, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 12, 2022 Just now, reo said: Right now the Russians don't have the troops available to them to take Kyiv imo. So it'll depend on if Putin will give up or escalate things.. and then it'll depend on how much he escalates it. I still think we could very easily end up in Ukraine before all is said and done but it won't be from what's going on now. Yeah, for now as long as Ukraine keeps winning, we are better off just equipping and training them and having foreign volunteers fight for them in their International Legion. It seems like it could escalate though, and if they start using chemical weapons or tactical nukes or if they capture or kill Zelensky - that quickly becomes a different story. reo 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
tgo Posted March 13, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 13, 2022 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
tgo Posted March 13, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 13, 2022 reo 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
reo Posted March 13, 2022 Report Share Posted March 13, 2022 4 hours ago, tgo said: Yeah, for now as long as Ukraine keeps winning, we are better off just equipping and training them and having foreign volunteers fight for them in their International Legion. It seems like it could escalate though, and if they start using chemical weapons or tactical nukes or if they capture or kill Zelensky - that quickly becomes a different story. yeah, Russia will probably escalate before they give up. That probably means at least chemical weapons but hopefully not nukes. Nukes would bring in the rest of the world including the US. I'm not sure about chemical weapons. I think the US would escalate in response but I don't know how far they'd go. They might institute a no fly zone at that point but I'm not sure. But this is why we're seeing so much propaganda about Ukraine and chemical weapons. Russia wants to be able to blame Ukraine after they use them on Ukraine. IsntLifeFunny 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
reo Posted March 13, 2022 Report Share Posted March 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, tgo said: And now this: Russia Is Recruiting Mercenaries March 12, 2022 at 4:04 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 239 Comments “Social media channels and private messaging groups are being used in Russia to recruit a new brigade of mercenaries to fight in Ukraine alongside the army,” the BBC reports. The message appeals to “those with criminal records, debts, banned from mercenary groups or without an external passport” to apply. https://politicalwire.com/2022/03/12/how-russia-is-recruiting-mercenaries/ Translation: Russia is continuing to get fucked up and now they're looking for reinforcements. Belarus is having issues w/ desertions so Russia is looking elsewhere as they try to force Lukashenko into helping. tgo 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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