tgo Posted March 1 Author Report Share Posted March 1 (edited) Iran has continued to absolutely hammer neighboring countries overnight, striking the international airports in Oman and the UAE. Iran's president Pezeshkian has resumed operational command of government (delivered an address to last night on camera). They also struck an oil tanker outside the Strait (happens to be a US sanctioned Russian shadow fleet tanker, luckily). Iran's missile barrages are really depleting regional stockpiles of interceptors - it will be critical for the US/Israel/SA to eliminate the missiles and launchers before they fully deplete the capability to intercept them. Of course, in the run-up to all this, the generals all repeatedly told Trump this is exactly what would happen and that it was a high risk proposition to have allied operational stockpiles running that low. Edited March 1 by tgo reo 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctm Posted March 1 Report Share Posted March 1 https://www.euronews.com/news/2026/03/01/first-oil-tanker-attacked-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-according-to-oman The first oil tanker in the Strait has been attacked. IsntLifeFunny 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
tgo Posted March 1 Author Report Share Posted March 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
tgo Posted March 1 Author Report Share Posted March 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctm Posted March 1 Report Share Posted March 1 ^^^fighting Israel's war for Bibi MadMax, and Omar 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
9 Nines Posted March 1 Report Share Posted March 1 2 hours ago, IsntLifeFunny said: Teaching Trumpers second and 3rd order effects is like teaching a dog to juggle. Back in the early 2000s we ran a massive war games on this exact scenario and our military figured out we could not control those shipping lanes if we took this action. Iran has studied the results and spent the last 20 years preparing for this scenario. They don't need a functional navy to block those lanes. They can use small boats and drones to continually re-mine the straights. It doesn't take a full blockade to have that narrow lane grind to a halt. We'll see how it all turns out, but what Trump did yesterday will set off a ton of cascading effects. Do you have a source? I would like to read it. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
9 Nines Posted March 1 Report Share Posted March 1 Chat summary of latest on the Strait. Actual Conflict / Hostile Actions There have been real hostile incidents affecting shipping in and around Hormuz: An oil tanker — the Skylight — was reportedly attacked near Oman in the Strait of Hormuz, with crew evacuated after injuries; this is a confirmed kinetic event, not just a threat. Other ships have reportedly been hit by projectiles or missiles in the area, according to maritime reports (e.g., UKMTO advisories). These incidents are actual conflict events — cargo vessels were struck or fired upon — which shift the maritime risk picture significantly. Military Warnings and Communications Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has broadcast radio messages to ships saying that “no ship is allowed to pass the strait,” according to naval monitoring. These warnings are not the same as a legally declared blockade under international law, but they play a role operationally because masters (ship captains) treat them as credible threats in a very narrow and contested waterway. The U.S. Navy and allied maritime authorities have issued broad maritime warning zones, cautioning ships to keep clear due to military activity and potential navigational risks. So there are actual military-level communications and hostile actions, even if there’s no formal “closure” declaration recognized internationally. Voluntary Avoidance by Shipping Companies Most of the reduction in traffic — including tankers turning back, anchoring, or diverting — is currently because shipowners and operators are choosing not to transit. The reasons include: Risk of attack or accidental engagement (as seen in the incidents above) Insurance refusal or dramatically increased war-risk premiums Advisories from flag states and maritime authorities Perceived elevated threat environment — e.g., potential drone, missile, or naval action This means that commercial avoidance is voluntary in a legal sense, but practically compulsory because no owner wants to risk uninsured or under-insured voyages through a zone where strikes have already occurred. So What’s the Current Reality? Is it risk vs. reality? → Both. There are real hostile actions and military communications that directly affect vessels. Shipping companies are choosing not to transit because of that real risk — it’s not purely theoretical. But in strict legal terms, there’s no universally recognized blockade or formal closure by Iran acknowledged under international maritime law yet. In practice, shipping traffic has effectively stopped or sharply declined because the combination of real hostile incidents + military warnings has made transiting the strait too dangerous or too costly (via insurance and liabilities). Bottom Line Actual conflict events are happening — oil tanker attacks, hostile threats, military messaging. Ships are avoiding the region not because of a purely academic risk, but because the risk has already manifested in attacks and credible military threats. The stoppage in traffic is not just voluntary in the usual commercial sense — it’s a real, risk-driven operational avoidance resulting from escalating hostilities. If you’d like, I can outline how insurers and naval forces define these risks (e.g., war-risk vs. political-risk zones) and how that translates to real choices shipowners make. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
tgo Posted March 1 Author Report Share Posted March 1 (edited) Edited March 1 by tgo IsntLifeFunny 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsntLifeFunny Posted March 1 Report Share Posted March 1 19 minutes ago, 9 Nines said: Do you have a source? I would like to read it. Here's one source, but just Google Millennium Challenge 2002. https://mackenzieinstitute.com/2023/11/a-250-million-war-game-and-its-shocking-outcome/ Basically, it was the largest war games ever put together. Iran wins defending the Straights easily against US Navy to the point the Pentagon had to rig the games in the US favor, which forced a general leading the red team (Iran) to quit because it was bullshit. Basically, the US Navy cannot secure the Straights. 9 Nines 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldschool Posted March 1 Report Share Posted March 1 chef, ChemEngr79, and tgo 3 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
9 Nines Posted March 1 Report Share Posted March 1 3 minutes ago, IsntLifeFunny said: Here's one source, but just Google Millennium Challenge 2002. https://mackenzieinstitute.com/2023/11/a-250-million-war-game-and-its-shocking-outcome/ Basically, it was the largest war games ever put together. Iran wins defending the Straights easily against US Navy to the point the Pentagon had to rig the games in the US favor, which forced a general leading the red team (Iran) to quit because it was bullshit. Basically, the US Navy cannot secure the Straights. Thanks IsntLifeFunny 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
tgo Posted March 1 Author Report Share Posted March 1 (edited) Edited March 1 by tgo IsntLifeFunny 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OILERMAN Posted March 1 Report Share Posted March 1 Callidus, IsntLifeFunny, Starkiller, and 1 other 4 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsntLifeFunny Posted March 1 Report Share Posted March 1 3 minutes ago, tgo said: I saw a video where NBC asked a top Iranian official "why are you fighting?" "because we are being attacked!" "Well why are you fighting back?" "What!?" Omar, Callidus, Starkiller, and 1 other 1 3 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsntLifeFunny Posted March 1 Report Share Posted March 1 1 minute ago, OILERMAN said: LOL Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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