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I'm going to liquidate my portfolio


abenjami

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Jfc are you a boomer? Here...    

This is one of the problems.... It could go higher for much longer and/or when you get in it could go lower much longer..... You have to guess right twice

Way back when Bush was president he signed this https://theweek.com/articles/767184/how-george-bush-broke-post-office   Around the same time my house flooded, home insurance doesn't cover fl

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6 hours ago, headhunter said:

Or you know the holiday season

Idk if we will see a big holiday season this year. Americans are pretty tapped on revolving credit, but per usual they could continue spending. My personal finances will be taking a more conservative posture.

 

We've increased investment and saving and pulled back spending. 

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5 hours ago, OILERMAN said:

I don't give a shit who the president is or what's going on. I just keep buying and accumulating. 

People just don’t get it.  Time in the market is so much better than timing the market.  It’s free money for a properly divested portfolio.  Keep buying, live on less than you bring in, etc.  Wash, Rinse, Repeat.  

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Been riding this wave just like most on here and see where I’m at now after 35 years of investing.  I would highly recommend reading the book by Ed Slott - The Retirement Savings Time Bomb Ticks Louder.  Basically it becomes less about what you have accumulated but about what you keep.  Of course it is on Amazon audio books but it might be a little heavy for the audio book so pay the $10 for the paperback.  You won’t regret it.

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1 hour ago, FRT said:

Been riding this wave just like most on here and see where I’m at now after 35 years of investing.  I would highly recommend reading the book by Ed Slott - The Retirement Savings Time Bomb Ticks Louder.  Basically it becomes less about what you have accumulated but about what you keep.  Of course it is on Amazon audio books but it might be a little heavy for the audio book so pay the $10 for the paperback.  You won’t regret it.

 

I listen to Slott's podcast. 

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I just started getting back into individual stocks after being only ETFs, which is still like 99% of my equity holdings. 

Something I noticed that is pretty amazing is how active the option market is.  Brokerages used to be shy about clients using options, now they promote it with primers on zero-day options, trading options expiring that day. 

There are options, even on small cap stocks, expiring every week.  This seems a great opportunity in volatile stocks by writing a few days long covered calls.  Being volatile, the premiums are high so you can get good premiums on a strike price higher than the stock is now that expire in just a few days.  Before it would be like a month out, strike near the same price as the stock just to get like $1.  A situation completely taking out your upside for peanuts.  A loser's game.

But being able to get a decent premium at strike higher than the stock that expires quickly, even if you get your stock called, you got the premium and a gain in the stock, plus unless a huge move, you can likely buy the stock back in a few days at a lower price since it is volatile. 

In a volatile stock, you could make 10 to 15% in a month writing calls once a week and unless you get caught with the stock going up 30% or more, you will likely be able to buy the stock back if called in a few days. 

I am doing it in my Roth, so it is all tax free forever!

Edited by 9 Nines
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19 hours ago, 9 Nines said:

I am doing it in my Roth, so it is all tax free forever!

That is what they implied about Social Security back in the day as well.  As Congress continues to grow the National debt by $10 Billion dollars a day they are going to come looking for a way to pay China back at some point.  😢

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4 hours ago, FRT said:

That is what they implied about Social Security back in the day as well.  As Congress continues to grow the National debt by $10 Billion dollars a day they are going to come looking for a way to pay China back at some point.  😢

 

LOL The US is not borrowing anything. US dollars are debt instrument, with no interest, just as the bonds but the bonds generally pay interest. China, as other net exports companies, choose to put some of their net proceeds in treasury bonds instead of spending it or leaving it in lower interest cash accounts. 

Every issue of Treasury bonds are oversubscribed - more bidders than issued bonds.  So if China decides it does not want bonds, there are many countries and entities who will buy any bonds they have left over.   

Primer from chat:

 

Described the role of primary dealers in treasury issues:


ChatGPT said:

 

What Primary Dealers Do:

Participation in Auctions: Primary dealers are obligated to participate in U.S. Treasury auctions, ensuring there is sufficient demand. They often buy a substantial portion of the bonds, but not necessarily all of them.
 

Market Making: They resell the bonds they purchase to investors in the secondary market, including institutions, hedge funds, and individual investors.
 

Support Market Liquidity: By actively trading Treasuries, they help maintain liquidity and stability in the market.


Other Buyers:


Treasury bonds are also purchased directly by other entities, such as: Foreign governments and central banks.

Pension funds.

Mutual funds and ETFs.

Individual investors via non-competitive bids.


Role of Non-Competitive Bids:


In addition to primary dealers, other buyers can place non-competitive bids, where they agree to accept the yield determined at the auction. These bids are filled first, and the remaining bonds are sold to competitive bidders, including primary dealers.

In summary, while primary dealers ensure the auction's success by purchasing a significant share, they are not the sole buyers. The system is designed to attract a wide range of participants.

4o


You said:


Do bids normally exceed the issue?


ChatGPT said:

ChatGPT


Yes, bids at U.S. Treasury auctions typically exceed the size of the issue. This is measured by the bid-to-cover ratio, which reflects the total amount of bids submitted divided by the total amount of securities offered. A ratio greater than 1.0 indicates that the auction was oversubscribed, meaning there was more demand than supply.


Why Do Bids Normally Exceed the Issue?


High Demand for Safe Assets: U.S. Treasury securities are considered some of the safest investments, attracting strong demand from both domestic and international investors.


Diverse Buyer Base: Buyers include primary dealers, institutional investors, foreign governments, and individual investors. This broad participation contributes to high bidding activity.


Liquidity Needs: Banks, hedge funds, and other financial institutions often purchase Treasuries to meet regulatory liquidity requirements or as collateral in financial transactions.


Non-Competitive Bids: Many investors submit non-competitive bids, ensuring they receive their requested allocation regardless of the final yield. These bids add to the overall demand.


Trading and Arbitrage: Primary dealers and institutional investors often bid more than they intend to hold to maintain market-making operations or take advantage of arbitrage opportunities.


Typical Bid-to-Cover Ratios:


For short-term Treasury bills: Ratios are often higher, typically ranging from 2.5 to 4.0.


For longer-term notes and bonds: Ratios tend to be slightly lower but still above 1.0, usually between 2.0 and 3.0.

Edited by 9 Nines
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On 1/1/2025 at 2:39 PM, 9 Nines said:

I just started getting back into individual stocks after being only ETFs, which is still like 99% of my equity holdings. 

Something I noticed that is pretty amazing is how active the option market is.  Brokerages used to be shy about clients using options, now they promote it with primers on zero-day options, trading options expiring that day. 

There are options, even on small cap stocks, expiring every week.  This seems a great opportunity in volatile stocks by writing a few days long covered calls.  Being volatile, the premiums are high so you can get good premiums on a strike price higher than the stock is now that expire in just a few days.  Before it would be like a month out, strike near the same price as the stock just to get like $1.  A situation completely taking out your upside for peanuts.  A loser's game.

But being able to get a decent premium at strike higher than the stock that expires quickly, even if you get your stock called, you got the premium and a gain in the stock, plus unless a huge move, you can likely buy the stock back in a few days at a lower price since it is volatile. 

In a volatile stock, you could make 10 to 15% in a month writing calls once a week and unless you get caught with the stock going up 30% or more, you will likely be able to buy the stock back if called in a few days. 

I am doing it in my Roth, so it is all tax free forever!

I tried covered call options on Ford Stock 2 years ago.  

I seriously need to do some more homework on that. 

Let me know which stocks you work on and if you have have success.  10% return every month is crazy good. 

Good luck!

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13 minutes ago, Titandan said:

I tried covered call options on Ford Stock 2 years ago.  

I seriously need to do some more homework on that. 

Let me know which stocks you work on and if you have have success.  10% return every month is crazy good. 

Good luck!

 

I remembered after doing some, that I do not care for covered calls. It limits upside for peanuts.  Swing trading targeting near daily highs and lows with limit orders is probably more productive but you can lose stock that way too. 

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7 minutes ago, 9 Nines said:

 

I remembered after doing some, that I do not care for covered calls. It limits upside for peanuts.  Swing trading targeting near daily highs and lows with limit orders is probably more productive but you can lose stock that way too. 

Well if you do it "correctly," it's a somewhat passive income opportunity according to my friend. 

I ended up just sticking to value stocks but ended up with 60% of my Roth IRA portfolio being tech stocks haha

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