The DJIA actually did hit my sell point last week. But keep in mind both my actual sell point and "it will go below 17k" were based on the DJIA, which is more of a point of reference that defines the overall market as opposed to a real investment. None of my original portfolio was invested in the DJIA.
At the bottom point of this crash (so far) last week, 5 of my 10 original investments were already in the money, meaning they had dropped below the price point I had sold them at 3.5 years ago. Another 3 were dancing the line and I was <$1,500 of being even on the original portfolio. The only reason the original portfolio wasn't in the money at that point in time was due to QQQ and VGT being so good they hadn't fallen far enough yet.
You are correct that as of right now, my original portfolio would have been better off had I just stayed in the whole time. But had I stayed in the whole time, I also would have been dumping more money into a rising market as I explained in that post last week. On a net basis of original portfolio + new contributions, I'm WAY ahead at this point. The losses I would have suffered with my new contributions are way greater than the losses my original portfolio has absorbed. Although this was not the original way I intended to make a nice return, this is the benefit I got for gutting this out 3.5 years instead of giving up and buying in the rising market.
The 4 Aces at this point means the only way I can lose is to be stupid enough to let some chump chasing a straight flush hit it on the river (i.e. I don't go all in before the market springs back up).
No, my ultimate scenario would not have been if I had kept buying. My ultimate scenario was accurately described by @OilerTitanHybrid below:
But that's not just my ultimate scenario, that's EVERYONE's ultimate scenario.