My Titans Draft Board at #4: Love, Tate, Bailey, Downs — and why I think the pick is Love

[Pragidealist]

Not because anyone asked for it but just bc I felt like writing it all together. 

 

I know this isn't a popular draft board at 4. I've gone back and forth on it and I keep landing in the same place, so I'm going to lay out my reasoning and let you all tear it apart.

 

Starting with the process of elimination:

The edge rushers don't hold up under scrutiny at #4.

• Bailey is an elite pass rusher — nobody's arguing that. But the scouting reports are consistent: he's a near-zero in the run game. Timid engaging blockers, poor pad level, gets moved off spots, 247 pounds. Multiple evaluators comp him to Nik Bonitto — a situational pass rusher, not a three-down player. Go look at the history of top-5 edge picks. They're almost always complete players — the Bosas, Myles Garrett, Hutchinson. Teams picking that high don't take guys who come off the field on early downs.

 

• Reese is the more complete defender, but he's an OLB built for a 3-4. Saleh and Bradley run a 4-3 that prioritizes generating pressure with the front four. Yeah, Bradley said he'll be flexible and adapt to players' skill sets, but there's a difference between adapting at the margins and building your defense around a scheme-misfit with the 4th overall pick.
• Bain is the best scheme fit of the three as a true 4-3 DE, but he's a top-10 player being considered at #4. That's a reach.  I keep moving him around.   I think the Titans may have him higher than I do tbh bc of scheme fit.  It would not surprise me if he's higher on the Titans board than Bailey. It just comes down to if you think his measurables are real red flags are not. 

 

So the edge class, as talented as it is, has real problems for this specific team at this specific pick.

 

Tate is my #2 and the sleeper of this conversation.

• Higher positional value than Love, polished route runner, strong hands, Davante Adams comp. He'd give Cam a legitimate outside weapon opposite Ridley with Robinson in the slot. Daniel Jeremiah has him as his WR1 and 6th overall prospect. He's the "safe" pick.

 

• But that's also the problem — 4.53 speed, profiles more as a WR2 developing into a WR1, and "safe" isn't usually what you're looking for at #4. Adams himself went 53rd overall. Tate is a really good player who will have a great NFL career, but I'm not sure he's a game-changer on Day 1 the way you want from a top-5 pick. I could absolutely see the front office going here though, and I wouldn't hate it.

 

Downs is my #4 as the fallback. Safety at #4 goes against historical norms and positional value, but if the board falls weird and Love and Tate are gone, he's a better player than reaching for an edge who doesn't fit.

 

Why I keep landing on Love at #1:

Start with what the Titans have actually done rather than what they've said.

• Borgonzi spent $300M in free agency adding 23 players — 13 with previous ties to Saleh or Daboll. He added John Franklin-Myers for pass rush. He added Wan'Dale Robinson for the passing game. He signed multiple corners. He deliberately raised the floor at every position of need so that — and this is key — he wouldn't be forced to draft for need. You don't spend that kind of money just to take a pass-rush specialist who can't play first and second down. You spend it so you can take the best player available without apology.
• Now look at the visit strategy. Love was their very first top-30 visit. But they didn't publicize it. Instead, they made sure local media knew about the Bailey and Reese visits. Why? You leak the names of the guys you want other teams to think you're taking. The Love buzz is coming from outside the building — betting markets, national media — and the Titans aren't doing anything to squash it because that buzz is useful leverage.
• Now the Saleh quotes. I know a lot of people are using his edge rusher comments as proof they're going defense. I read it differently. Saleh went out of his way to praise Pollard and Spears, then pivoted to a whole philosophical argument about edge rushers being game-changers. On the surface that looks like he's campaigning for an edge. But ask yourself: if you actually want an edge rusher, why would you publicly announce that to the teams picking at #2 and #3? That's terrible strategy. You'd be telling the Jets and Cardinals "hey, we want what you might take."
• And we know for a fact Saleh has no problem saying one thing while doing another. A week before they traded Sweat, he was publicly praising the guy's foot speed and saying he was "excited to see him get to work." That trade had to have been in the works for weeks when he said that. So his public comments are unreliable indicators of his actual plans. That's not speculation — it's established pattern.

 

The real argument for Love is what he does for this offense.

• I know the anti-RB crowd is going to come for me. I get the positional value data — RBs rank near the bottom in WAR, the drop-off between elite and replacement-level is smaller than at other positions, the age cliff hits at 29. I'm a numbers guy. I understand the framework. But here's where I think the data has a blind spot: it's built on averages and replacement-level comparisons. It answers the question "should the average team draft an average RB in round one?" and the answer is clearly no. But it can't answer "should this team draft a transcendent dual-threat back in a draft where every alternative at #4 is flawed?" The tool isn't built for that question
• The cascading effect of a truly elite RB — the kind who forces defensive coordinators to change their game plan every week — doesn't show up in the running back's WAR. It shows up in the quarterback's cleaner pocket on play-action, the receiver's increased separation against single coverage when the safety cheats up, the third-and-short conversion rate. CJ2K didn't just rush for 2,006 yards — he turned Kerry Collins and Vince Young into functional quarterbacks by making defenses account for him on every single snap. That value gets distributed across other players' stat lines and the RB never gets credit for it.
• The league went from one extreme of overvaluing RBs to now undervaluing the special ones. The fact that you can find a 1,000-yard rusher in round 4 doesn't mean a McCaffrey-type weapon in round 1 is a waste — it means the floor of the position has risen, which should make the ceiling players even more valuable because you're getting something those day-3 backs literally cannot replicate.
• Love isn't just a runner. He's a dynamic receiving threat who can line up in multiple positions and flip the field on any touch. Pair that with Daboll — who built his best offenses in Buffalo around a legitimate run threat that kept defenses honest for Josh Allen — and you've got a potential offensive identity that transforms what Cam Ward is asked to do in Year 2.

 

And the timeline works. Love on a rookie deal for four years lines up perfectly with Ward's development window. You don't need Love to be elite at 30. You need him to be elite while your franchise QB grows into the player you drafted him to be.

 

My prediction: Love at #4.

Not because it's the trendy pick. Not because the betting odds say so. Because I've systematically gone through every realistic alternative and they all have specific, concrete problems that a front office this thorough has already identified. And because everything this organization has done — the free agency spending, the visit strategy, the public misdirection — points toward a team that set itself up to take the best player in the draft regardless of position.

 

I might be wrong. I probably am. But I'm wrong with what I think is pretty solid logic, and I'll take that over being right by accident.  

 

Fire away.

[NashvilleNinja]

[Callidus]

Just going to touch on a couple things you said about love. 

 

1. If you are lining him up anywhere but in the backfield he isn't giving you the scary running back part of this so him being able to line up outside is a moot point unelss you have a second scary rb. 

 

2. The contract part of this, he will instantly be one of the most expensive running backs in the nfl day 1 giving you the least discount of any of the guys you could draft. 

[Pragidealist]

Just now, Callidus said:

Just going to touch on a couple things you said about love. 

 

1. If you are lining him up anywhere but in the backfield he isn't giving you the scary running back part of this so him being able to line up outside is a moot point unelss you have a second scary rb. 

 

2. The contract part of this, he will instantly be one of the most expensive running backs in the nfl day 1 giving you the least discount of any of the guys you could draft. 

1.  That "scary running back part" is less useful on third down.   I don't think its moot. He can line up in teh slot- and make them try to cover him on any down... on a simple mesh. who are you covering him with? He's a match up problem as WR as much as RB.  It just adds to options.   

2. I honestly have not done any math on taht to know what that really means adn I don't really know how much it matters in the long run.   I'm not totally discounting it but its a complicated factor thats not an immediate "no" in my mind. His contract becomes a bigger deal after his rookie deal- with Cam post rookie deal, etc taht it becomes a bigger issue.  By then, you've given Cam the training wheels you wanted.   They can make a determination tah tmakes sense at that time.  

[Pragidealist]

I should have said. I see Bailey, Downs and Bain as options if we trade down a little.  I see Love 1 and Tate 2 at 4.   I doubt both of those will be gone.  If they are.. well shit. lol 

[Callidus]

4 minutes ago, Pragidealist said:

1.  That "scary running back part" is less useful on third down.   I don't think its moot. He can line up in teh slot- and make them try to cover him on any down... on a simple mesh. who are you covering him with? He's a match up problem as WR as much as RB.  It just adds to options.   

2. I honestly have not done any math on taht to know what that really means adn I don't really know how much it matters in the long run.   I'm not totally discounting it but its a complicated factor thats not an immediate "no" in my mind. His contract becomes a bigger deal after his rookie deal- with Cam post rookie deal, etc taht it becomes a bigger issue.  By then, you've given Cam the training wheels you wanted.   They can make a determination tah tmakes sense at that time.  

Top tier wrs make 2-3 times what top running backs make, edge guys make 3-4 times. So if you draft one of those poitions you get a bigger "discount" assuming they all live up to the draft slot. 

[Pragidealist]

Just now, Callidus said:

Top tier wrs make 2-3 times what top running backs make, edge guys make 3-4 times. So if you draft one of those poitions you get a bigger "discount" assuming they all live up to the draft slot. 

Sure but how much does that discount matter in the Titans specific context and how much should it play a role in constructing teh best team they can?  It seems a side issue to me.  Construct the very best team.   But IF it somehow ties your hands where you're constructing a lesser team.. then I get it.. It just becomes complicated multi-year accounting math.  

[rns90]

2 minutes ago, Callidus said:

Top tier wrs make 2-3 times what top running backs make, edge guys make 3-4 times. So if you draft one of those poitions you get a bigger "discount" assuming they all live up to the draft slot. 

Pretty much yeah.  The positional value argument is that the more difficult the position the more you have to pay to find them in FA.

And you draft these guys high so they develop and you resign them so you don’t have to overspend on them in FA like Dan Moore.

 

[oldschool]

[Pragidealist]

15 minutes ago, rns90 said:

Pretty much yeah.  The positional value argument is that the more difficult the position the more you have to pay to find them in FA.

And you draft these guys high so they develop and you resign them so you don’t have to overspend on them in FA like Dan Moore.

 

positional value argument- positional value arguement isn't primarily contractual is it? Its more a way to talk about positional ROI.   High draft capital is a high investment in a position with less value.   Not necessarily (though also true) contract value and applied rookie discounts. 

[Callidus]

31 minutes ago, Pragidealist said:

1.  That "scary running back part" is less useful on third down.   I don't think its moot. He can line up in teh slot- and make them try to cover him on any down... on a simple mesh. who are you covering him with? He's a match up problem as WR as much as RB.  It just adds to options.   

2. I honestly have not done any math on taht to know what that really means adn I don't really know how much it matters in the long run.   I'm not totally discounting it but its a complicated factor thats not an immediate "no" in my mind. His contract becomes a bigger deal after his rookie deal- with Cam post rookie deal, etc taht it becomes a bigger issue.  By then, you've given Cam the training wheels you wanted.   They can make a determination tah tmakes sense at that time.  

The reason it matters while cam is on his rookie deal is that you could get a solid rb for half the price. If you need to get a solid edge rusher because you didnt draft one it will cost you twice as much or more. 

[Pragidealist]

Just now, Callidus said:

The reason it matters while cam is on his rookie deal is that you could get a solid rb for half the price. If you need to get a solid edge rusher because you didnt draft one it will cost you twice as much or more. 

 

I just don't really care about this discount conversation unless it limits you too much down the road.  If you hit on Love and he is worth top of market in 4 yeras, you're saving about 10 mil a year. If you hit on Tate and he hits on his ideal- you save something like 32m a year by having them on rookie deals instead of paying for them in FA.  

 

But there are so many ifs, ands and buts in there..  First - they ahve to hit. Second have to hit on taht crazy to end value and third it assumes you would have replaced them with that FA contract. 

 

Unless you think that 10 mil a year on Love is going to hamstring you over the 8 mil for Pollard.. it doesnt matter.   We're not going oing next year and signign the highest paid WR anyway.   We're going to get one in teh 2nd or later roudns and develop them or we're going to draft one next year.  

 

Its not the simple comparison ppl want to make... its really a pretty complicated and messy thing to even worry about.   So unless someone has a concreate scenario and not a theoretical - with a rationale for how it impacts the Titans in not being able to construct r oster. I'm not worried about it

[titanruss]

7 minutes ago, Callidus said:

The reason it matters while cam is on his rookie deal is that you could get a solid rb for half the price. If you need to get a solid edge rusher because you didnt draft one it will cost you twice as much or more. 

right.. but neither situation is one that keeps us from paying for a pass rusher or WR if we need to.

 

We are going to have a ton of room next year too 

[AussieTitanFan08]

Bain is not a perfect fit for a Saleh defense not sure why you keep saying this Saleh loves players with length and Bain does not have that.

 

There is a reason one of the best draft analysts in the business Daniel Jeremiah yesterday said he had been told Bain was not one of the Titans guys.

[Callidus]

7 minutes ago, titanruss said:

right.. but neither situation is one that keeps us from paying for a pass rusher or WR if we need to.

 

We are going to have a ton of room next year too 

Ok, think of it this way. You go into next year with 60mil to work with. 

 

If you draft love and the need for an edge comes up again and they have to sign someone in FA you could be spending 1/3 of you cap to fill that hole.

 

Now flip that around and you need to sign a rb. Not only can you get a rb for half that, you can get a much better rb than the edge you signed. 

 

So your choices are a great rb and an average edge rusher with 40mil to spend.

 

Or a really good rb and a great edge rusher with 50mil to spend. 

 

One of those options is clearly better. There is a lot of stuff behind the scenes that doesn't make it that simple but more often than not it will hold true enough.