IrishTitansFan Posted January 23, 2025 Report Share Posted January 23, 2025 5 hours ago, TerryBoats said: Derek Carr's efficiency and production tanked under McDaniels. Mac Jones was surprisingly good, but that's the one exception in a career which has been atrocious without Brady. And bad coaches always say things like this. Mike McCarthy hyped himself up every offseason because of the amount of self-reflection and film study he did of other effective offenses, then he'd return with the same vanilla offense as usual. Wrong. The Raiders were a top 12 offense and Carr was a top 13 QB in EPA per drop back, despite having a lower completion percentage than his CPOE (a stat that usually tells you the QB is screwing the playcaller Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerryBoats Posted January 23, 2025 Report Share Posted January 23, 2025 3 hours ago, IrishTitansFan said: Wrong. The Raiders were a top 12 offense and Carr was a top 13 QB in EPA per drop back, despite having a lower completion percentage than his CPOE (a stat that usually tells you the QB is screwing the playcaller His CPOE was almost exactly the same as Mahomes at less than -1%- hardly screwing the playcaller. Carr's expected completion % was one of the worst in the NFL- 5% lower than the previous year in which he had an interim HC. He threw into tight coverage at the 5th highest rate and had the 6th highest air yards per attempt. Vrabel did a better job of helping his QBs out. His crowning achievement under McDaniels-EPA- was worse than it was in 21 despite adding Davante Adams. He's terrible. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishTitansFan Posted January 23, 2025 Report Share Posted January 23, 2025 21 minutes ago, TerryBoats said: His CPOE was almost exactly the same as Mahomes at less than -1%- hardly screwing the playcaller. Carr's expected completion % was one of the worst in the NFL- 5% lower than the previous year in which he had an interim HC. He threw into tight coverage at the 5th highest rate and had the 6th highest air yards per attempt. Vrabel did a better job of helping his QBs out. His crowning achievement under McDaniels-EPA- was worse than it was in 21 despite adding Davante Adams. He's terrible. Mahomes CPOE was over 3.6, 2nd in the league. The bottom 10 featured guys like Carr, Mariota, Wentz, Fields, Mills, Jimmy G A decent sample of QBs who screw their playcaller. Carr had the 4th worst CPOE Expected completion % is useless to compare league wide by itself unless used in conjunction with CPOE, it almost always features bad QBs at the top. Unless you think Levis was screwed by Callahan rather than he couldn’t read the defense and find the open receiver None of this takes into account actually watching the games, knowing how badly he played that season with missing receivers etc to the point he was benched and then later apologised to his teammates and coaches for not preparing properly all year Justafan, and IsntLifeFunny 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishTitansFan Posted January 23, 2025 Report Share Posted January 23, 2025 The Raiders having a top 12 offense with how bad Carr was and getting career years out of Jacobs and a near career year from Adams was a minor miracle from McDaniels. Did he do well in 23? Hell no and he’s a terrible leader, but 22 was seriously impressive offensively Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerryBoats Posted January 23, 2025 Report Share Posted January 23, 2025 (edited) 1 hour ago, IrishTitansFan said: Mahomes CPOE was over 3.6, 2nd in the league. The bottom 10 featured guys like Carr, Mariota, Wentz, Fields, Mills, Jimmy G A decent sample of QBs who screw their playcaller. Carr had the 4th worst CPOE Expected completion % is useless to compare league wide by itself unless used in conjunction with CPOE, it almost always features bad QBs at the top. Unless you think Levis was screwed by Callahan rather than he couldn’t read the defense and find the open receiver None of this takes into account actually watching the games, knowing how badly he played that season with missing receivers etc to the point he was benched and then later apologised to his teammates and coaches for not preparing properly all year None of what you said is correct. Are you looking at the correct year? Update: the CPOE numbers on the website you're looking at are wrong. Go to Nextgenstats and you'll see that they are completely different. In fact, many of the numbers are totally screwed up on that website. You can see that his completion % there doesn't even match his stats for the year. Expected Completion % is one of the more useful tools in determining the quality of the play callers. QBs with good offensive coaches like Tua, Mahomes, Nix, Goff, Daniels, Stafford etc almost always are high on this list. While QBs with garbage callers like the ones in TN and McDaniels aren't. Rudolph had one of the worst expected completion %s in the league, yet an above average CPOE. Callahan was every bit as bad as Vrabel in the passing game. Edited January 23, 2025 by TerryBoats Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishTitansFan Posted January 23, 2025 Report Share Posted January 23, 2025 22 minutes ago, TerryBoats said: None of what you said is correct. Are you looking at the correct year? Update: the CPOE numbers on the website you're looking at are wrong. Go to Nextgenstats and you'll see every are completely different. In fact, many of the numbers are totally screwed up on that website. You can see that his completion % there doesn't even match his stats for the year. Expected Completion % is one of the more useful tools in determining the quality of the play callers. QBs with good offensive coaches like Tua, Mahomes, Nix, Goff, Daniels, Stafford etc almost always are high on this list. While QBs with garbage callers like the ones in TN and McDaniels aren't. Rudolph had one of the worst expected completion %s in the league, yet an above average CPOE. Callahan was every bit as bad as Vrabel in the passing game. Sorry, but almost every sentence is wrong. Carrs CPOE was 4th worst, Mahomes 2nd best in 2022 Rudolph was mid range in Expected Completion %, Levis was towards the bottom. What was more likely, did Callahan become a better play caller only on the weeks Rudolph played, or was the QB not finding open guys? Expected completion % does not give any indication in to the quality of play caller. If a playcaller throws only screens every pass, they will be at the top, even if they don't score any points. It has way more to do with ADOT and QB play All of this is easily filtered here https://rbsdm.com/stats/stats/ Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerryBoats Posted January 23, 2025 Report Share Posted January 23, 2025 (edited) 24 minutes ago, IrishTitansFan said: Sorry, but almost every sentence is wrong. Carrs CPOE was 4th worst, Mahomes 2nd best in 2022 Rudolph was mid range in Expected Completion %, Levis was towards the bottom. What was more likely, did Callahan become a better play caller only on the weeks Rudolph played, or was the QB not finding open guys? Expected completion % does not give any indication in to the quality of play caller. If a playcaller throws only screens every pass, they will be at the top, even if they don't score any points. It has way more to do with ADOT and QB play All of this is easily filtered here https://rbsdm.com/stats/stats/ Read my second paragraph. Those numbers are wrong. You'll see that Carr's completion % doesn't even match his real numbers- it was 60.8%, not 63.8%. And the expected Completion numbers are screwed up too. Use this instead https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#yards Edited January 23, 2025 by TerryBoats Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishTitansFan Posted January 23, 2025 Report Share Posted January 23, 2025 50 minutes ago, TerryBoats said: Read my second paragraph. Those numbers are wrong. You'll see that Carr's completion % doesn't even match his real numbers. And the expected Completion numbers are screwed up too. Use this instead https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#yards It does seem like the completion is somehow filtered wrong, but as I have posted time and time again, NFL NGS are almost useless for this sort of thing because they attempt to use tracked GPS numbers as part of their model. Totally useless because it doesn't take in to account quality of player, man/zone coverage etc. So their CPOE will account for a defender 2 yards away as the same in the model no matter if they're in man or zone. So they could be facing the other way in man, or sitting on the route in zone! Ben Baldwin who runs rbsdm is actually attempting to help them with this and is the most widely respected analytics guru in media Regardless, expected completion in a vacuum is an awful way of judging a play caller, and Carr was seriously terrible in 2022. He apologised for being so bad oldschool, and IsntLifeFunny 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerryBoats Posted January 23, 2025 Report Share Posted January 23, 2025 2 minutes ago, IrishTitansFan said: It does seem like the completion is somehow filtered wrong, but as I have posted time and time again, NFL NGS are almost useless for this sort of thing because they attempt to use tracked GPS numbers as part of their model. Totally useless because it doesn't take in to account quality of player, man/zone coverage etc. So their CPOE will account for a defender 2 yards away as the same in the model no matter if they're in man or zone. So they could be facing the other way in man, or sitting on the route in zone! Ben Baldwin who runs rbsdm is actually attempting to help them with this and is the most widely respected analytics guru in media Regardless, expected completion in a vacuum is an awful way of judging a play caller, and Carr was seriously terrible in 2022. He apologised for being so bad His completion percentage was in the high 60s every season since 2018 with one exception- in 2022, under McDaniels, when it dropped around 8 points compared to his average. Easy to come to the logical conclusion here. No model is perfect, but at least NGS manages to use the correct data as a basis of comparison. That's seriously embarrassing for whoever runs rbsdm. I've used them as a reference as well, but it's impossible to have faith in their data if they aren't even able to get basic stats correct. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishTitansFan Posted January 23, 2025 Report Share Posted January 23, 2025 9 minutes ago, TerryBoats said: His completion percentage was in the high 60s every season since 2018 with one exception- in 2022, under McDaniels, when it dropped around 8 points compared to his average. Easy to come to the logical conclusion here. No model is perfect, but at least NGS manages to use the correct data as a basis of comparison. That's seriously embarrassing for whoever runs rbsdm. I've used them as a reference as well, but it's impossible to have faith in their data if they aren't even able to get basic stats correct. If you use completion % as a single point of determining a playcallers ability then sure... The context of him missing open throws all over the place, getting benched, apologising after the season to his coaches and teammates for his application and performance should lead you to come to the easily logical conclusion that the Raiders having a top 12 offense with that QB play was an impressive coaching job Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerryBoats Posted January 23, 2025 Report Share Posted January 23, 2025 (edited) 24 minutes ago, IrishTitansFan said: If you use completion % as a single point of determining a playcallers ability then sure... The context of him missing open throws all over the place, getting benched, apologising after the season to his coaches and teammates for his application and performance should lead you to come to the easily logical conclusion that the Raiders having a top 12 offense with that QB play was an impressive coaching job Yes Carr was so detrimental that the Raiders scored fewer than 16 PPG under McDaniels the following season after Carr left. And yet another veteran QB managed to have the worst season of his career before McDaniels was fired for being so terrible. They had a Top 12 offense because they had a Top 3 WR, Top 10 OL, a good RB and good QB. It's not that impressive, and should have been better considering that LV did better with lesser talent before. Edited January 23, 2025 by TerryBoats Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishTitansFan Posted January 23, 2025 Report Share Posted January 23, 2025 https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6079189/2025/01/22/mike-vrabel-coaching-path-patriots-head-coach/ Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishTitansFan Posted January 23, 2025 Report Share Posted January 23, 2025 30 minutes ago, TerryBoats said: Yes Carr was so detrimental that the Raiders scored fewer than 16 PPG under McDaniels the following season after Carr left. And yet another veteran QB managed to have the worst season of his career before McDaniels was fired for being so terrible. They had a Top 12 offense because they had a Top 3 WR, Top 10 OL, a good RB and good QB. It's not that impressive, and should have been better considering that LV did better with lesser talent before. The QB publicly apologised for his play and application due to personal issues and it was obvious he sucked if you watched the games... Listen, McDaniels has had good and bad years as an offensive coach, he his a TERRIBLE HC and a bad personality, but a clearly good offensive mind who had impressive years in 2021 and 2022. More impressive to me than most years with Brady oldschool 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerryBoats Posted January 23, 2025 Report Share Posted January 23, 2025 53 minutes ago, IrishTitansFan said: The QB publicly apologised for his play and application due to personal issues and it was obvious he sucked if you watched the games... Listen, McDaniels has had good and bad years as an offensive coach, he his a TERRIBLE HC and a bad personality, but a clearly good offensive mind who had impressive years in 2021 and 2022. More impressive to me than most years with Brady 2021 is very impressive, knowing what we know about Jones now. But it's one good season amongst a long line of terrible ones without Brady. Carr and Jimmy G's efficiency dropped significantly as soon as they started playing for McDaniels, and went back up to their mean once they got the hell away from his sorry ass. Either it was a huge coincidence that their bad play occurred at the time McDaniels was employed, or he was a major reason for their struggles. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post ChesterCopperpot1 Posted January 23, 2025 Popular Post Report Share Posted January 23, 2025 Mike Vrabel basically owes Ryan Tannehill everything https://x.com/_birdsofwar/status/1882471452680855973?s=46&t=h7aDqXbroNdWf9oBZJwjZA Justafan, oldschool, croatian22, and 4 others 3 2 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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