Iran: To Strait or Not To Strait?

[OzTitan]

Most of MAGA have little need to reference any geography a few miles from their house.

[IsntLifeFunny]

This shit is wild. 

 

The Hill: The speaker of Iran’s Parliament, Mohammad-Bagher Qalibaf, said Friday that Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz again amid the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports, contradicting President Trump, who said the strait was “open for business” earlier in the day.

His remarks came as Trump was on stage delivering a speech in Arizona at a Turning Point USA event. 

[tgo]

 

[Jamalisms]

Interestingly, oil futures haven't responded to that.

[IsntLifeFunny]

28 minutes ago, Jamalisms said:

Interestingly, oil futures haven't responded to that.

Enough ships have been allowed to pass through to keep up the game for a bit longer, but physical supply shortages are coming within the next 2 to 3 weeks. 

[ctm]

The difference between the futures market and dated Brent explained, along with other oil market issues:

 

https://www.investing.com/analysis/brent-crude-disconnect-from-physical-oil-prices-raises-market-risk-200678631

[IsntLifeFunny]

46 minutes ago, ctm said:

The difference between the futures market and dated Brent explained, along with other oil market issues:

 

https://www.investing.com/analysis/brent-crude-disconnect-from-physical-oil-prices-raises-market-risk-200678631

Great read. Something that could continue to keep the price down is how globally broadcast this war has become, forcing demand to fall globally. 

[IsntLifeFunny]

Surprise surprise a war hawk would say bombing the brown people to secure the resource war thinks the Iran War is a great idea! 

 

I'm not listening to all of it but I heard a few minutes of his incoherent rambling. He's saying what I said was the purpose from the start, or at least one of them, is the oncoming resource war. That framing cares nothing about the global economy, cares nothing about US leadership going forward, nothing about our allies, nothing about the collapsed power projection of the Iranian regime maintaining power and what that leads to, nothing of the wasted resources, the stagflation pressure this produces on the global economy....etc. 

[reo]

57 minutes ago, Titandan said:

Military historian breaks down the Iran nuclear deal the enabled Iran to build up their military, ballistic missiles stockpile, nuclear capabilities, and fund their proxies. 

 

Remarkably stupid... 

 

 

 

 

 

Dude... you need to get away from the propaganda and misinformation.

 

You won't. But you need to.

 

Quick analysis:
 

Analysis (What’s Actually Going On)

this follows a very recognizable pattern.

 

1) Narrative Structure

This is not neutral analysis. It’s a coherent political narrative:

• Step 1: Define a past mistake (Obama deal)
• Step 2: Show correction (Trump policies)
• Step 3: Show failure (Biden era)
• Step 4: Justify current conflict
• Step 5: Expand to broader ideological critique

It’s storytelling, not just reporting.

 

2) Selective Framing

There are some real elements, but heavily filtered:

True-ish components:

• Iran deal did involve sanctions relief
• Iran funds proxies (Hezbollah, etc.)
• Iran increased uranium enrichment after U.S. left the deal

Missing / downplayed:

• The deal did significantly limit enrichment for a period
• U.S. withdrawal is widely considered a trigger for escalation
• Iran’s current status is not clearly “collapsed” in most analyses
• Regional dynamics are far more complex (Israel, Gulf states, China, etc.)

It cherry-picks facts to support a conclusion.

 

3) Language & Persuasion Tactics

You’ll notice:

• Repetition: “absurd,” “crazy,” “wrong”
• Certainty without nuance
• Opponents framed as:
  • naive
  • dishonest
  • politically motivated

That’s rhetorical persuasion, not analytical balance.

 

4) Ideological Layer

The domestic section reveals the underlying lens:

• Anti-DEI
• Anti-progressive policy
• Strong law-and-order framing
• Skepticism of immigration systems

That lens shapes how everything else is interpreted, including foreign policy.

 

 

5) Where It Gets Weak

The weakest parts:

• Claims of large-scale welfare fraud tied to specific groups (asserted, not demonstrated)
• Oversimplified cause-effect chains (policy → crime → intent)
• Overconfidence in geopolitical outcomes (“Iran is finished” type statements)

 

6) What’s Actually Useful (Your “nuggets” question)

There are a few worthwhile takeaways:

✔ Legit angles to think about:

• Sanctions vs diplomacy tradeoff with Iran
• Proxy warfare as Iran’s primary strategy
• Deterrence perception matters (not just capability)
• Incentive structures in policy (domestic and foreign)

 

What’s mostly noise:

• Absolutist conclusions
• “Everything was perfect under X, everything failed under Y”
• Broad cultural/political generalizations

 

Bottom Line

 

• It’s a strongly opinionated geopolitical narrative
• Built around:
  • Pro-deterrence / anti-diplomacy framing
  • Anti-progressive domestic lens
• Uses real events, but:
  • Selectively
  • Without much counterweight
  • With high rhetorical intensity

 

Edited 10 hours ago by reo

[OILERMAN]

titandan is an absolute joke. He's an ass kissing excuse maker no matter what Trump does. 

[OILERMAN]

The video he posted is from a Trump lover who wrote a book for Trump, big surprise Mark Levis endorsed....

[ctm]

Iran’s quick reversal of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has laid bare a rift between the country’s political leaders and the military hard-liners who have deepened their hold on the government since the war began.

 

A day after the country’s foreign minister announced that the strait was open, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired on at least two commercial ships in the Gulf for the first time during the cease-fire—and broadcast warnings to mariners that the waterway remained closed, causing ships that were attempting the transit to turn back. Ships would be targeted.

 

The public display of division points to the difficulty ahead as President Trump tries to nail down concessions that would allow him to end the war with a clear win.

 

The latest incident erupted Friday, when Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on his X account that the Strait of Hormuz was “completely open.”

 

The outreach immediately came under attack in Iran. That same night, a person identifying himself as a member of the Revolutionary Guard’s navy broadcast a message on marine radio saying the strait remained closed and that ships needed its permission to pass, according to recordings by crew in the Gulf that were shared with The Wall Street Journal.

 

“We will open it by the order of our leader, Imam Khamenei, not by the tweets of some idiot,” the message said.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/iran-s-hard-liners-flex-their-muscle-with-a-u-turn-over-hormuz/ar-AA21dAy5?ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=69e4080e9de349c6a4f1f562e50aeac2&ei=21

 

[9 Nines]

10 hours ago, Jamalisms said:

Interestingly, oil futures haven't responded to that.

Oil probably trades 24 hours privately, but official exchanges do not open until Sunday evening as  I recall.

[9 Nines]

Why can't the straight turn gay already. 

[IsntLifeFunny]

59 minutes ago, ctm said:

Iran’s quick reversal of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has laid bare a rift between the country’s political leaders and the military hard-liners who have deepened their hold on the government since the war began.

 

A day after the country’s foreign minister announced that the strait was open, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired on at least two commercial ships in the Gulf for the first time during the cease-fire—and broadcast warnings to mariners that the waterway remained closed, causing ships that were attempting the transit to turn back. Ships would be targeted.

 

The public display of division points to the difficulty ahead as President Trump tries to nail down concessions that would allow him to end the war with a clear win.

 

The latest incident erupted Friday, when Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on his X account that the Strait of Hormuz was “completely open.”

 

The outreach immediately came under attack in Iran. That same night, a person identifying himself as a member of the Revolutionary Guard’s navy broadcast a message on marine radio saying the strait remained closed and that ships needed its permission to pass, according to recordings by crew in the Gulf that were shared with The Wall Street Journal.

 

“We will open it by the order of our leader, Imam Khamenei, not by the tweets of some idiot,” the message said.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/iran-s-hard-liners-flex-their-muscle-with-a-u-turn-over-hormuz/ar-AA21dAy5?ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=69e4080e9de349c6a4f1f562e50aeac2&ei=21

 

Who could have seen this turn of events??