The Bukafax Betting Bonanza - 2019 Season

[TheBukafax]

4 minutes ago, abenjami said:

Whatever you say.  Just realize you're talking to someone who's been betting 4 team parlays for more than 20 years and has come out ahead.  If you're serious about this gambling thing, you might want to consider there are strategies out there to beat the odds instead of just relying upon yourself to get lucky by being right at least 55% of the time...

Do you care to pass on your predictive analytics model you use in order to find an edge on 4 team parlays?

[TheBukafax]

Week 1 - Recap

 

1) Steelers +6 -117. The Steelers are a team that is better as a whole then the sum of its parts. They are being undervalued due to the loss of Bell and AB. Tom Brady is currently throwing the lowest air yards of his career. This is going to cause time consuming dink and dunk drives. This will most likely result in a close game.

 

2) NYJ/BUF U40.5 -102. Buffalo has a tough D as well as a brutal offense. This will end up being a rushing game. Bell could break this under but I still feel it will be a close low scoring affair.

 

3) Titans +5.5 -101. This line seems like it should be off. The fact the books are keeping it at 5.5 and lowering the juice instead to draw bets shows the book is afraid of moving to 6. Due to the Olines in this game neither QB will have much time. This is another game that will be close and low scoring.

 

4) TEN/CLE U44.5 +101. The Olines are going to kill a lot of drives. Both teams have punters that can flip the field as well. It will be a slow, boring game.

 

5) Jack Doyle O36.5 yds -113. In 2017 Doyle was Brissets outlet. Chargers have a decent pass rush causing Brisset to look for his comfort catcher in Doyle.

 

6) Jack Doyle O3.5 rec -126. Just like above. In an attempt to negate a pass rush Brisset will look to his security blanket. The game script also leads to Brisset playing catch up.

 

7) Leveon Bell O3.5 rec -108. Last season Bell only had a handful of games where he had under 4 receptions. I believe his known pass catching ability will want to be used early and often as he is a shiny new toy.

 

8 ) Delanie Walker O40.5 -116. The Browns were one of the worst against the TE. The pass rush will be heavy so Marcus will look to his security blanket. Marcus to Walker via the seam is such a staple in this offense. It will be utilized vs a weak TE coverage unit.

 

9) Austin Ekler O54.5 -116. This is a game script pick. Ekler should get quite a bit of touches without Gordon. Jackson will get touches as well. I see Ekler getting well over 10 carries. He should be able to chip away late in the game if he is short on yards from the early game script.

 

Total Wagered: $55

Total Won: $3.05

ROI: 5.55%

Pick W-L: 5-4

 

Week 1 thoughts: Overall I am happy with my picks. The only one I am miffed about are the two Jack Doyle picks. I didnt do much analysis beyond looking in 2017 to see how Doyle and Brisset worked together. I should have looked at other factors such as recent history for Jack Doyle regardless of QB and the LACs coverage of TEs overall. Those things might have swayed me away. The Steelers game I was a little shocked by. I didnt think the Steelers O would fall off that much. Ekler was a lucky victory as well. If it werent for OT I would be on the negative side.

 

Going into week 2 I think I am going to be more aggressive with my bet sizing. I felt very strong on the Titans going in but still didnt up my wager. It was a good feeler week to see how things shake out. I need to do more analysis to ensure my pick is the right way to go.

[abenjami]

18 minutes ago, TheBukafax said:

Do you care to pass on your predictive analytics model you use in order to find an edge on 4 team parlays?

There is no predictive analysis model that works for all games/weeks.  It's more about watching a TON of football (not just Titans games), being able to predict outcomes based upon matchups, and then finding the right lines to bet.  I did already mention one helpful tip, instead of trying to pick 4 different teams, pick 2 teams with the over/under.  That way you only have to predict 2 games correctly.

 

For example, had I been in Vegas today (I wasn't), I would have bet hard on the Chiefs and the over.  Why?  Because even though lots of people thought the Jags defense might slow down that offense, Mahomes is actually ridiculously better on the road than at home.  There was also a decent amount of money on the Jags because people are way too high on Foles.  Just taking the Chiefs and giving the points was a no-brainer, but so was the over at 52.

 

You sort of did this today with your Titans +5.5 and Titans Under bets, except your analysis of the over/under was wrong.

 

Regular probability odds you keep mentioning apply to things like rolling dice where the outcome is truly random.  The outcome of NFL games is not random and the lines are based upon amount of money being bet on each side, not on real statistical probabilities.  You can beat the odds with information, just like you can beat the odds at a blackjack table if you can count cards.

 

 

[TheBukafax]

1 minute ago, abenjami said:

There is no predictive analysis model that works for all games/weeks.  It's more about watching a TON of football (not just Titans games), being able to predict outcomes based upon matchups, and then finding the right lines to bet.  I did already mention one helpful tip, instead of trying to pick 4 different teams, pick 2 teams with the over/under.  That way you only have to predict 2 games correctly.

 

For example, had I been in Vegas today (I wasn't), I would have bet hard on the Chiefs and the over.  Why?  Because even though lots of people thought the Jags defense might slow down that offense, Mahomes is actually ridiculously better on the road than at home.  There was also a decent amount of money on the Jags because people are way too high on Foles.  Just taking the Chiefs and giving the points was a no-brainer, but so was the over at 52.

 

You sort of did this today with your Titans +5.5 and Titans Under bets, except your analysis of the over/under was wrong.

 

Regular probability odds you keep mentioning apply to things like rolling dice where the outcome is truly random.  The outcome of NFL games is not random and the lines are based upon amount of money being bet on each side, not on real statistical probabilities.  You can beat the odds with information, just like you can beat the odds at a blackjack table if you can count cards.

 

 

Why dont you use an online book? Thats what Im doing. Much more convenient.

 

The bold is done based on information of statistical probabilities.

[abenjami]

Just now, TheBukafax said:

Why dont you use an online book? Thats what Im doing. Much more convenient.

 

The bold is done based on information of statistical probabilities.

Yes, beating the odds at blackjack by counting cards is done based upon information of statistical probabilities, but it's important to realize the reason it works is the information enables one to bet differently to beat the odds and win.

 

I used to use online books all the time.  Back in the day when I was following baseball, 4 team parlays were my bread and butter.  I found baseball was easier than football to hit those because there is less parity between teams and starting pitchers have such a large influence in the outcome of the games.

 

I don't use online books anymore for two reasons.  First, most of them take a cut when you deposit, and that means you have to win a higher percentage of your bets to come out on top.  Second, there are problems with payouts.  They aren't efficient, sometimes there is additional juice involved (such as check fees), and lots of people have flat out been stiffed by them when trying to cash out.

[Number9]

7 hours ago, Number9 said:

NFL up 3 units

 

8 hours ago, Number9 said:

Seahawks Chargers Patriots  ML  Parlay 1unit  

Win  up 4 units.  

[Number9]

Oakland +3 .5unit   Oakland  ML .5unit    Under 43.5  bought 1pt  1unit

Still alive 4 team ML parley--Saints need to win.

 

[TheBukafax]

10 minutes ago, Number9 said:

Oakland +3 .5unit   Oakland  ML .5unit    Under 43.5  bought 1pt  1unit

Still alive 4 team ML parley--Saints need to win.

 

I’m opposite, feeling DEN. I don’t feel confident enough to bet em though.

[Number9]

1 hour ago, TheBukafax said:

I’m opposite, feeling DEN. I don’t feel confident enough to bet em though.

I feel ya.  The Saints were 7pt favorites and are looking like they might ruin my 4 team ML parlay, all big favs.

[Number9]

On 9/8/2019 at 11:18 PM, Number9 said:

 

Win  up 4 units.  

 

5 hours ago, Number9 said:

Oakland +3 .5unit   Oakland  ML .5unit    Under 43.5  bought 1pt  1unit  Wx3  2units

Still alive 4 team ML parley--Saints need to win. W 2units

 

Up 8units wk 1  8units season.

[Number9]

Up 8 units season  I put some bets in already.  

Cleveland -3 1unit  Texans-Ravens-Chiefs ML Parley 4units w/3units

Edited September 12, 2019 by Number9

[heyitsmeallen]

On 9/7/2019 at 11:08 AM, Blackjack said:

Oh not not all the games.  The better players pick 4 or 5 games a week and bet on them.  End up with a decent handicap percentage. 

 

The degenerates like me that can't sit still bet on 8 or 10 a week and hope for the best.

 

I'm the commissioner of a pool through officefootballpool.com

 

Everyone gets 100 points to start the season and you can bet as little or as many straight bets or parlays on teams, over/unders with a spread.

 

Entry is $100 and there are prizes for the first 3 quarters end of season, best handicap, and then it starts over for playoffs.  

 

Pretty neat set up because there are tons of different strategies people use.

 

If anyone is interested in joining PM me.  Our numbers are down this year (only 22 entries)  and we usually have 35 or so.  

 

 

You aren’t a true Degen until you are waking up at 3 am to bet on Australian football matches,professional table tennis, ECHL Hockey, or professional gaming. I’m totally guilty of all of them lol. 

[Number9]

14 minutes ago, heyitsmeallen said:

You aren’t a true Degen until you are waking up at 3 am to bet on Australian football matches,professional table tennis, ECHL Hockey, or professional gaming. I’m totally guilty of all of them lol. 

My son in college.

[heyitsmeallen]

Looking through some prop bets for tonight. 

Winston to throw at least 1 int pays -265 lol. That’s how guaranteed he is to throw a pic.

 

one I kind of like a lot is Newton to score a TD and the panthers win. Pays out 7/2 or +350

[rns90]

1 hour ago, heyitsmeallen said:

You aren’t a true Degen until you are waking up at 3 am to bet on Australian football matches,professional table tennis, ECHL Hockey, or professional gaming. I’m totally guilty of all of them lol. 

LOL