pat Posted March 20, 2019 Report Share Posted March 20, 2019 9 hours ago, oldschool said: No real data. Got it What data is there for the inverse, that the prosecutor profession is full of liberals? Cause that sounds quite a bit like the "liberal deep state is out to get Trump" drivel. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mythos27 Posted March 20, 2019 Report Share Posted March 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, oldschool said: Reagan was around 42% at this point in his first term too.... the electoral college levels the field. It's all about OH, FL, PA, and the former blue wall. If the blue collar voters in those states think the economy is serving them they wont flip. Stop acting like Trump is doomed to lose. He has a very good shot at being reelected if we don't hit a recession next year. Stop acting like he's a shoe in. The economy is a big factor but not the only one. Trump isn't Reagan. He may have his rabid base but every available metric says that it's pretty much all he has. I'm not saying we have it in the bag; we'll have to fight and claw for every inch but you talking like he's got this on lock is more based on the fear of him winning than the info we have at hand. Independents have pretty much abandoned and he needed every one of them he could get in 2016. All these democrats are running because they see he's vulnerable and likely wouldn't even run if they thought he was the juggernaut you do. We have to certainly have to respect Trump as an opponent but we don't have to run scared at the mere mention of him. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OILERMAN Posted March 20, 2019 Report Share Posted March 20, 2019 People are gun shy because Trump pulled off the upset in 2016, he hit a half court buzzer beater to win. He's a big underdog to get re-elected Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctm Posted March 20, 2019 Report Share Posted March 20, 2019 12 minutes ago, OILERMAN said: People are gun shy because Trump pulled off the upset in 2016, he hit a half court buzzer beater to win. He's a big underdog to get re-elected More likely that the Russians paid off the refs. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldschool Posted March 20, 2019 Report Share Posted March 20, 2019 2 hours ago, patsplat said: What data is there for the inverse, that the prosecutor profession is full of liberals? Cause that sounds quite a bit like the "liberal deep state is out to get Trump" drivel. So nothing got it. It's on you to provide supporting data when you make silly comments like all prosecutors are conservative. The insinuation Harris isnt a true liberal because of her background as a prosecutor is laughable. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldschool Posted March 20, 2019 Report Share Posted March 20, 2019 2 hours ago, Mythos27 said: Stop acting like he's a shoe in. The economy is a big factor but not the only one. Trump isn't Reagan. He may have his rabid base but every available metric says that it's pretty much all he has. I'm not saying we have it in the bag; we'll have to fight and claw for every inch but you talking like he's got this on lock is more based on the fear of him winning than the info we have at hand. Independents have pretty much abandoned and he needed every one of them he could get in 2016. All these democrats are running because they see he's vulnerable and likely wouldn't even run if they thought he was the juggernaut you do. We have to certainly have to respect Trump as an opponent but we don't have to run scared at the mere mention of him. History is repeating itself... the economy overrides all. The foxnews propaganda machine is a powerful drug for the sheep and Teump has near total support among the GOP which matters when the electoral college dictates who wins. Look at the map. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pragidealist Posted March 20, 2019 Report Share Posted March 20, 2019 2 hours ago, OILERMAN said: People are gun shy because Trump pulled off the upset in 2016, he hit a half court buzzer beater to win. He's a big underdog to get re-elected It’s a lot worse than that. The other teams pg, tripped on her own laces. The refs hated her and called everything in his favor. The scoreboard operator was bribed AND he still had to hit a half court buzzer beater- which he did with a his closed in fear. I think it may have even hit a light in the gym ceiling before somehow going in... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legaltitan Posted March 20, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 20, 2019 Prosecutors are more likely to be conservative/republican than a member of the general population of lawyers. My 20 years of anecdotal experience tells me they are significantly more likely to be so, but I don't have any hard numbers on that. But there are plenty who are not, and I didn't see what started this slap fight, but if someone is suggesting Harris is not really progressive because she was a prosecutor, I would say that is wrong for two reasons. One, there are progressives who become prosecutors. Two, when people leave the prosecutors office, they can become more progressive. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Starkiller Posted March 20, 2019 Report Share Posted March 20, 2019 3 hours ago, oldschool said: Reagan was around 42% at this point in his first term too.... Yeah, but at that point there was still a recession and he hadn’t been shot yet. His popularity turned around when the economy improved and he survived assassination. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justafan Posted March 20, 2019 Report Share Posted March 20, 2019 2 hours ago, OILERMAN said: People are gun shy because Trump pulled off the upset in 2016, he hit a half court buzzer beater to win. He's a big underdog to get re-elected More like Hillary limped into the 4th quarter and then choked when it mattered. Trump was a loser then and he's a loser now. Hillary just happened to be one of the historically least likable politicians to ever run for President. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mythos27 Posted March 20, 2019 Report Share Posted March 20, 2019 1 hour ago, oldschool said: History is repeating itself... the economy overrides all. The foxnews propaganda machine is a powerful drug for the sheep and Teump has near total support among the GOP which matters when the electoral college dictates who wins. Look at the map. I understand this but the GOP and self identified Republicans only make up about 24% of the electorate according to a 2017 Gallup poll. If your (not you personally)electoral strategy revolves around flipping Trump supporters, you're in trouble anyways because they're not budging. The key will be independents who gave Trump the benefit of the doubt in 2016 but are not falling for it again and are going into 2020 with clear eyes. We can win those voters and all available data since 2016 says we're doing a good job of it. Again, I'm not at all saying the dems have it in the bag or anything just that pessimism isn't warranted either. This Washington Post piece does a good job of showing what I'm saying: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/09/12/mid-terms-draw-near-trumps-numbers-with-independents-should-worry-republicans/?utm_term=.a0bf70a8a130 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legaltitan Posted March 20, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 20, 2019 Independents are important, but the key is turnout turnout turnout. I mean, we have the mid-terms that JUST HAPPENED to show us how key turnout is. But don't take it from me. Take it from Trump's own political operatives. Their number one strategy (and, as it just so happens, that of the Russian trolls) was to depress turnout among African Americans and other key democratic constituencies. And it worked. Turnout was way down in Milwaukee, Detroit and Pennsylvania. Yes, there are persuadable voters out there and we absolutely need to capture them, and win back some blue collar voters. But turnout and enthusiasm is what wins modern presidential elections. See Gore v. Bush, Kerry v. Bush, Obama v. McCain, Obama v. Romney, and Obama v. Trump. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OILERMAN Posted March 20, 2019 Report Share Posted March 20, 2019 There is a number of his base that he won't lose no matter what happens for sure. He's also not gaining to that base. Trump simply holding his base will lose him re-election easily. Tell me how he'll expand his base? Show me the voter who didn't vote for him in 2016 that is kicking himself for not doing so, that voter doesn't exist. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
pat Posted March 21, 2019 Report Share Posted March 21, 2019 14 hours ago, oldschool said: So nothing got it. It's on you to provide supporting data when you make silly comments like all prosecutors are conservative. The insinuation Harris isnt a true liberal because of her background as a prosecutor is laughable. Evidence: the prosecutor is the State's advocate. The State is averse to change, and thus the role is fundamentally conservative. The most "liberal" act a prosecutor performs is choosing what not to do, ie Harris declining to defend Prop 8. Permitting change by looking aside is a far cry from actively working towards a policy. It's not necessarily a bad thing. Your counter argument is unconvincing: I'm wrong, I have to prove I'm right, I need more data, yet you've provided nothing yourself other than assertions. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
No1TitansFan Posted March 21, 2019 Report Share Posted March 21, 2019 I think she tried too hard at first to demonstrate her progressive creds by jumping on every proposal out there, including reparations; but I think she felt a little blowback on that and has been doing way more retail politicing and she's actually pretty good at that. I do think there's a tremendous female empowerment movement amongst hard core democratic women; and which ever of the female candidates rises to the top will benefit from that. She does come off as extremely intelligent and personable when she's not pandering to the crowd. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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