Titans are 4th in converting 3rd downs

[OILERMAN]

The Titans actually have some really positives things about the offense

Titans are one of the best redzone offenses and one of the best teams converting 3rd downs(4th behind GB, Dallas and the Saints). They are currently 11th by Football outsiders overall, they are 3rd in rushing and still one of the better teams protecting the QB.

The 3rd down conversion rate is pretty interesting. Mariota is actually pretty mediocre overall on 3rd down with an 82 passer rating but he's converted a lot on rushing plays and he's actually been really good on 3rd and longer than 10, 16 of 24 for almost 67% and a 107 passer rating. Murray has also converted 7 of 8 3rd downs.

If they can get some better talent at WR/TE and Mariota can improve the offense looks like it could have a lot of potential

[Face]

6 minutes ago, OILERMAN said:

The Titans actually have some really positives things about the offense

Titans are one of the best redzone offenses and one of the best teams converting 3rd downs(4th behind GB, Dallas and the Saints). They are currently 11th by Football outsiders overall, they are 3rd in rushing and still one of the better teams protecting the QB.

The 3rd down conversion rate is pretty interesting. Mariota is actually pretty mediocre overall on 3rd down with an 82 passer rating but he's converted a lot on rushing plays and he's actually been really good on 3rd and longer than 10, 16 of 24 for almost 67% and a 107 passer rating. Murray has also converted 7 of 8 3rd downs.

If they can get some better talent at WR/TE and Mariota can improve the offense looks like it could have a lot of potential

Obviously I joke around about Andrew Luck a lot but I remember reading the 2012 Colts, his rookie year, they were basically a statistical anomaly. They were outscored on the year & were pretty poor in every meaningful stat, yet they frickin won 11 games. It just made no sense.

These Titans in a way are almost the opposite. Every stat I read tells me this team should be, at worst, 4-3. I remember the 2010 Chargers were like this. If you remember we had a shootout with them that we lost but going into the game they were actually ranked #1 in offense AND defense & were something like 2-5!!!

I just think so many games come down to the last drive of both halves.. That's why with McNair our end of season numbers often weren't overly impressive but he was awesome in the 2 minute drill. Luck, for all I say about him, is off the charts in big spots. Everybody knew the asshole was going to find a way to get the ball in the endzone at the end of the game on Sunday. You look at both Indy games where Marcus & Luck played & they basically came down to one QB playing better than the other in the last few mins. This isn't a shot at Marcus at all, Luck is that good in those situations.

[Jonboy]

I was looking at the 3rd and long numbers yesterday. Thought I must be reading it wrong since it looked like he was better on 3rd and long than 3rd and intermediate. 

[titanruss]

6 minutes ago, Jonboy said:

I was looking at the 3rd and long numbers yesterday. Thought I must be reading it wrong since it looked like he was better on 3rd and long than 3rd and intermediate. 

*cough*playcalling*cough*

 

3rd and long forces them to spread out. 3rd and short makes them think they can still run 5 yard bunched curls while mariota has to turn his back on a play-action. 

[AvgJoe]

31 minutes ago, OILERMAN said:

The Titans actually have some really positives things about the offense

Titans are one of the best redzone offenses and one of the best teams converting 3rd downs(4th behind GB, Dallas and the Saints). They are currently 11th by Football outsiders overall, they are 3rd in rushing and still one of the better teams protecting the QB.

The 3rd down conversion rate is pretty interesting. Mariota is actually pretty mediocre overall on 3rd down with an 82 passer rating but he's converted a lot on rushing plays and he's actually been really good on 3rd and longer than 10, 16 of 24 for almost 67% and a 107 passer rating. Murray has also converted 7 of 8 3rd downs.

If they can get some better talent at WR/TE and Mariota can improve the offense looks like it could have a lot of potential

Agreed. Sometimes I have to remind myself that Marcus is only in Year 2 and today is the 8th game in a new system. As he develops and we improve the weapons the way we have the run game and Oline we will see this get even better.

[OILERMAN]

23 minutes ago, Face said:

Obviously I joke around about Andrew Luck a lot but I remember reading the 2012 Colts, his rookie year, they were basically a statistical anomaly. They were outscored on the year & were pretty poor in every meaningful stat, yet they frickin won 11 games. It just made no sense.

These Titans in a way are almost the opposite. Every stat I read tells me this team should be, at worst, 4-3. I remember the 2010 Chargers were like this. If you remember we had a shootout with them that we lost but going into the game they were actually ranked #1 in offense AND defense & were something like 2-5!!!

I just think so many games come down to the last drive of both halves.. That's why with McNair our end of season numbers often weren't overly impressive but he was awesome in the 2 minute drill. Luck, for all I say about him, is off the charts in big spots. Everybody knew the asshole was going to find a way to get the ball in the endzone at the end of the game on Sunday. You look at both Indy games where Marcus & Luck played & they basically came down to one QB playing better than the other in the last few mins. This isn't a shot at Marcus at all, Luck is that good in those situations.

The reason the stats don't equate is because the Titans are 26th in turnover ratio

[Face]

6 minutes ago, OILERMAN said:

The reason the stats don't equate is because the Titans are 26th in turnover ratio

There you go.

[SleepingTitan]

38 minutes ago, Face said:

Obviously I joke around about Andrew Luck a lot but I remember reading the 2012 Colts, his rookie year, they were basically a statistical anomaly. They were outscored on the year & were pretty poor in every meaningful stat, yet they frickin won 11 games. It just made no sense.

These Titans in a way are almost the opposite. Every stat I read tells me this team should be, at worst, 4-3. I remember the 2010 Chargers were like this. If you remember we had a shootout with them that we lost but going into the game they were actually ranked #1 in offense AND defense & were something like 2-5!!!

I just think so many games come down to the last drive of both halves.. That's why with McNair our end of season numbers often weren't overly impressive but he was awesome in the 2 minute drill. Luck, for all I say about him, is off the charts in big spots. Everybody knew the asshole was going to find a way to get the ball in the endzone at the end of the game on Sunday. You look at both Indy games where Marcus & Luck played & they basically came down to one QB playing better than the other in the last few mins. This isn't a shot at Marcus at all, Luck is that good in those situations.

We have literally lost almost every game on about 4 plays total. They were talking about it on the Jared Shitbrick Stillman + Reese 2days ago.

If not for a few plays, we would be 5-2. 

[oldschool]

when you run as well as the Titans do you have 3rd and manageable situations which  lead to higher conversion rates.

[CaliTitan3518]

Another interesting stat I saw is we rank 3rd in the nfl with passing plays over 20+ yards. Hopefully this offseason we can grab a big play WR.

[titanruss]

16 minutes ago, oldschool said:

when you run as well as the Titans do you have 3rd and manageable situations which  lead to higher conversion rates.

a little off-topic as it pertains to 3rd downs but i dont feel our run game sans-marcus is as good as we like to think. We'd be middle of the pack on yards per game and barely top 10 per rush without his stats added in. Not terrible... but not the "imposing our will" scheme we were promised. Seems we just run a lot more than most at a slightly better tick than most. 

[begooode]

53 minutes ago, OILERMAN said:

The reason the stats don't equate is because the Titans are 26th in turnover ratio

No one can argue against the turnover ratio in the NFL.  But I'll add that great stats vs crappy results can also indicate that a team is just not clutch.  It's QBR's only interesting angle, imo.

[TitanDuckFan]

1 hour ago, OILERMAN said:

The reason the stats don't equate is because the Titans are 26th in turnover ratio

There's two sides to turnover ratio.  Yes the Titans have committed their share.  But they haven't forced/recovered a fumble all season.  The T7th on INTs is decent, but the forced fumble stat is dead last.  The next closest team (CAR) has 4.

As a result we're 26th in overall TO ratio at -4, but if we were just one notch up we'd be ranked 16th.  If we were average at about 9 FRs, we'd be ranked 7th in TO ratio.  About where the rest of the defense has been.

[nine]

It's no secret that winning helps hide a lot of problems, while losing will make things look worse than they truly are.

After struggling early in the season, the offense has actually been reasonably effective over the past few weeks.   Not that they've been great, but they've played well enough to win more than they lose.

The problem is, the special teams has been an absolute disaster this year and played a significant role in three of the team's four losses.....which overshadowed any positives that happened  on offense or defense.

The offense was also reasonably effective last week, even despite Mariota's inconsistency.   Unfortunately, the defense had arguably their worst game of the season, allowing Andrew Luck to get into a rhythm without forcing a single turnover....and the Titans' offense couldn't keep up.

Of course, the game was ultimately decided by a defensive TD in the final two minutes....the Titans' one and only turnover of the game, but an extremely costly one that negated any of the positives on offense.

We can dissect the statistics and point to a lot of good things that are happening, both on the offensive and defensive sides of the ball.   But in seven weeks, we've yet to see a single game in which the Titans had a solid performance in all three phases.   And until they start doing that, there will still be games where the final outcome is less than the sum of the parts.

 

[XAEA12]

2 hours ago, OILERMAN said:

The Titans actually have some really positives things about the offense

Titans are one of the best redzone offenses and one of the best teams converting 3rd downs(4th behind GB, Dallas and the Saints). They are currently 11th by Football outsiders overall, they are 3rd in rushing and still one of the better teams protecting the QB.

The 3rd down conversion rate is pretty interesting. Mariota is actually pretty mediocre overall on 3rd down with an 82 passer rating but he's converted a lot on rushing plays and he's actually been really good on 3rd and longer than 10, 16 of 24 for almost 67% and a 107 passer rating. Murray has also converted 7 of 8 3rd downs.

If they can get some better talent at WR/TE and Mariota can improve the offense looks like it could have a lot of potential

 

The truth is for all its warts, this team has drastically improved from the past few years.  We all should know by now this offense is great for short area production. My hope is that the WR talent really is just that bad on this team, and having competent WRs will make this offense look a lot better.