chef Posted October 20 Report Share Posted October 20 2 hours ago, ctm said: Stock market relative valuations are very high. Huge debate on how much further AI can push them. If the stock market does pull back then upper income Americans will also do so. The top 10% of income earners constitue 50% of consumer spending. That's a recipe for a recession. The fundamentals aren't entirely off, less so in most ways than dot.com or housing crashes, but a whole lotta 1929 when you glance between now and then. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Starkiller Posted October 21 Report Share Posted October 21 (edited) There’s a new book, 1929 by Andrew Ross Sorkin, where there are apparently a lot of parallels between the economy then and now. I haven’t read the book but I’ve heard him on a couple of podcasts. Edited October 21 by Starkiller Little Earl, and OILERMAN 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
pat Posted October 21 Report Share Posted October 21 7 hours ago, Starkiller said: There’s a new book, 1929 by Andrew Ross Sorkin, where there are apparently a lot of parallels between the economy then and now. I haven’t read the book but I’ve heard him on a couple of podcasts. This economy is about to crash so very very hard. Little Earl, and MadMax 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadMax Posted October 21 Report Share Posted October 21 31 minutes ago, pat said: This economy is about to crash so very very hard. And it'll be Biden's fault... Or maybe even Obama's fault. Clinton? No! It'll be Carter's fault! Damn him. pat 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldschool Posted October 21 Report Share Posted October 21 4 hours ago, MadMax said: And it'll be Biden's fault... Or maybe even Obama's fault. Clinton? No! It'll be Carter's fault! Damn him. You forgot antifa! MadMax 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldschool Posted October 21 Report Share Posted October 21 16 hours ago, chef said: Car loan delinquencies specifically looking like a canary in the coal mine there. Though home mortgage loans stable, particularly as sales have slowed and older people just staying in their homes/younger people not able to afford to buy leading to some market stagnation. A side effect of which is actually fewer people falling behind on mortgage payments. Almost a similar situation to where gas gets cheaper with less global economic activity... a good thing for a not so good reason. Credit card delinquency is actually on the low side though. Again potentially related to a semi-low level for consumer sentiment. Been mostly stable for a few months though. Haven't heard specs on large appliance purchase trends. Feels like a lot of people are just holding their breath and crossing their fingers. Watching market climb while a lot of other negatives happen around them. Sky's not falling yet, though would assume those not on MAGA side are way more likely to feel it's about to. Would love to see data how our extreme political dichotomy has affected things like consumer sentiment past decade or so. Source? Last data i saw a few weeks ago showed the opposite. Credit card usage is on the rise and so are the number of Americans who are behind. Something like 12% I believe and its getting worse as wages continue to stagnate, people are being laid off or not getting colas all while inflation crushes the economy. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctm Posted October 21 Report Share Posted October 21 (edited) I saw the same story on delinquent car loans and people under water. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/auto-loan-payments-deliquencies-vanatagescore-study/ Edited October 21 by ctm Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctm Posted October 21 Report Share Posted October 21 6 hours ago, pat said: This economy is about to crash so very very hard. It could, but I'm far from convinced., although there are plenty of bad signs. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
chef Posted October 21 Report Share Posted October 21 1 hour ago, oldschool said: Source? Last data i saw a few weeks ago showed the opposite. Credit card usage is on the rise and so are the number of Americans who are behind. Something like 12% I believe and its getting worse as wages continue to stagnate, people are being laid off or not getting colas all while inflation crushes the economy. 16 minutes ago, ctm said: I saw the same story on delinquent car loans and people under water. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/auto-loan-payments-deliquencies-vanatagescore-study/ Seen the car loan issue repeatedly (thx Google algos!). Cannot look now but a couple times mortgage and cc mentioned in same pieces. Have seen rising Cc balances referenced several times though. Did see at least one article on cc payments lagging with these rising balances, related to inflationary pressure. Highest % was probably Business Insider or CNBC site. Maybe Bloomberg. oldschool, and ctm 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Starkiller Posted October 21 Report Share Posted October 21 The question is whether this government cares about the general population struggling to stay above water economically enough to notice the economy struggling. I find it more likely that they notice when the AI bubble bursts and the stock market drops. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Little Earl Posted October 21 Report Share Posted October 21 It looks like the Democrats have to own this one, in the public's eye: “This shutdown hasn’t even hit Donald Trump’s support at all. His net approval rating is actually up a point,” CNN's Harry Enten said. Jamalisms 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Starkiller Posted October 21 Report Share Posted October 21 48 minutes ago, Little Earl said: It looks like the Democrats have to own this one, in the public's eye: “This shutdown hasn’t even hit Donald Trump’s support at all. His net approval rating is actually up a point,” CNN's Harry Enten said. Can’t get much lower than it already is, eh? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctm Posted October 21 Report Share Posted October 21 I've yet to see the first poll where more people blame Democrats rather than Republicans for the shutdown. OILERMAN 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldschool Posted October 21 Report Share Posted October 21 3 hours ago, ctm said: I've yet to see the first poll where more people blame Democrats rather than Republicans for the shutdown. Its starting to even out though. and lol at Harry Enten. Dude will do a spot in the morning claiming Trump is under water and fading only to follow it up with a spot in the evening where he claims Trump is gaining support. I stopped listening to him years ago because of it. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OILERMAN Posted October 21 Report Share Posted October 21 Wait until these tards start paying the new premiums or drop their coverage all together ChemEngr79, and MadMax 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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