The Never-ending Saga of Jadeveon Clowney

[Starkiller]

2 minutes ago, ChemEngr79 said:

 

He is rapidly arriving at the age when many in his position start to slip...before halfway through his next deal he might be a shadow of his former self...risky.

He is risky regardless, but any team signing him knows they are likely to cut him after about 3 years. 

[ctm]

Signing Clowney would almost assuredly kill the 3rd round 2021 comp pick the team is likely to get for Conklin.  In addition, Clowney's 2021 cap number will be a lot larger than his 2020 cap hit.  This will happen at time that D. Jones, Davis, Jackson, Brown and J. Smith are all free agents. The titans won't sign all 5 of these guys but signing Clowney likely means that you can mark 1 or 2 more additional players off the 2021 re-sign list.

 

In addition, any contract signed by RT or Henry will also contain a much bigger cap hit in 2021 than 2020.

 

Pass

[BudsOilers]

The Titans delve into cap hell was tied way more to the contracts for Eddie George and overpaying guys like Wycheck, Matthews, etc.  than the Kevin Carter move. 

 

As for your hypothetical with Seattle (again obvious you don't watch their games), Seattle's RB situation late in the year is just where luck comes into it.  In a span of two games, they lost 1949 yards of run yards/receiving yards when Carson and Penny were lost for the year.  Basically, it was the equivalent of losing Henry, Lewis, the 3rd string guy in the span of two games on a team that plays offensively a lot like the Titans do.  But make no mistake the downfall of that team was mainly it's defense and pass rush and that was with Clowney playing at a high level.  They were never going to win the SB with that defense aside from a miraculous effort from Wilson.

 

Back to this, paying anybody a huge contract has some degree of risk.  For Clowney, it's durability and it's a fair knock.  It's NOT that it's ability or effort.  The Titans could opt to re-sign Correa, add a guy like Quinn, Beasley, or Golden and call it a day instead.  That may be fine albeit all of those guys have questions too - whether it's age, injury, effort.  I'd also add that while pass rush is desperately needed, the OLB in this scheme has to also be a good run defender unless they are specifically playing on passing situations.

 

Paying Henry a monster contract has risks too - not so much in that he's prepared for a rapid decline but more so in the event of injury and in that the value of RB in terms of winning/losing is minimal and more importantly teams can routinely plug in RB's on rookie or small deals and have good running games.   Adrian Peterson is a perfect example.  Paid as an elite runner for years and Minnesota never won anything and only got close when Favre came in.  He tears an ACL and the team actually had a more productive running game without him.

 

Back to DL, from ESPN:  Clowney was 5th in pass rush win rate.  Quinn was #1 but remember that he was used almost exclusively as a pass rusher whereas Clowney was an every down player.  The idea that Clowney is a bad pass rusher doesn't jive with this or PFF.......Add in the double team rate, something that reasonably would be a lesser factor on the Titans front 7 than with what he saw in Seattle, it's an interesting possibility.

 

Pass-rushers on the market

10 of the top 25 pass-rushers in 2019 according to ESPN's Pass Rush Win Rate metric could be on the open market next week. Here's a list:

Player Age*                                                                      PRWR (NFL rank) Sacks

DE Robert Quinn, Cowboys 30                                     32.2% (1)                11.5

DE Jadeveon Clowney, Seahawks 27                         24.8% (5)                    3.0

OLB Shaquill Barrett **, Bucs 27                                 24.4% (6)                  19.5

OLB Dante Fowler Jr., Rams 26                                   22.5% (10)                11.5

DE Adrian Clayborn, Falcons 32                                  21.1% (15)                 4.0

DE Yannick Ngakoue **, Jaguars 25                            20.3% (T-18)             8.0

OLB Matthew Judon **, Ravens 28                             20.3% (20)                 9.5

OLB Vic Beasley, Falcons 28                                        19.7% (21)                8.0

OLB Jordan Jenkins, Jets 26                                          19.0% (23)                8.0

DT Chris Jones **, Chiefs 26                                          18.4% (25)               9.0

*At start of 2020 season

**Could receive the franchise tag

 

 

[Starkiller]

Contenders want to win now. They are going to spend money to win now while their window is open.
 

The argument for signing Clowney to a big money deal is that they want to improve the front 7 now and there is no better way to do that immediately. You can’t grab guys with his ability in free agency generally. Some team is going to take a chance on him because they want to win and not play it safe.

 

I still think it’s a risk, but I think it’s a risk they need to be willing to take if they think they can win the Super Bowl.

[BudsOilers]

Without spending too much time on this, Seattle was not a true SB contender, especially once the RB's went down in week 15.  Flip Henry for Carson/Penny and I think it would be relatively the same.  Henry's the better back but Carson/Penny can play all 3 downs and Seattle's OL is considerably worse than the Titans.  Take Clowney off Seattle and replace him with a lesser player - doubtful they have better production, odds are it would be worse.

 

Philosophically, I don't necessarily disagree with the whole "a handful of good players" is better than one great player but it mainly is because of the risk - teams with star players often have a huge drop off to the next man up.  Of course, a great player is one for a reason - being a difference maker. 

 

The fact remains that Clowney, of all of the options, is the best overall player out there.  He may price himself out of Seattle or here but he's going to get a huge deal because of it.  Quinn probably is the best pure pass rush guy out there but he's had injury issues too and is 32.

 

 

 

[japan]

On 3/12/2020 at 9:42 PM, JoelinBellevue said:

Pass on Clowney. Money wasted. Hopefully we learned from Wake.

Joel showing his ass again....

[socaljake]

21 hours ago, Starkiller said:

Contenders want to win now. They are going to spend money to win now while their window is open.
 

The argument for signing Clowney to a big money deal is that they want to improve the front 7 now and there is no better way to do that immediately. You can’t grab guys with his ability in free agency generally. Some team is going to take a chance on him because they want to win and not play it safe.

 

I still think it’s a risk, but I think it’s a risk they need to be willing to take if they think they can win the Super Bowl.

This. We got so close. That has to be weighing on JR mind. We  have to get past Mahomes. We're a contender right now and who knows long that will last. Clowney does carry risk. He's not a slam dunk like Mack or Donald. He's not on that level. But I understand "going for it."  Not suggesting cap hell or anything, but you have to be willing to take some risk if you want the reward. Playing it safe doesn't get you a SB.

 

I don't necessarily think it has to be Clowney, but he seems to be the most logical based on need, availability, and connections. Judon and Yannick got tagged and I don't see us trading a pick and paying them. Dupree's probably getting tagged. After that it's pretty much Clowney and Fowler. Beasley is not a needle mover. I do think a vet EDGE would be preferred. We need someone who can help us deep into the playoffs now and a late 1st round rookie might not be able to provide that.

[GLinks]

I’m partial to Quinn if you’re going veteran and a guy in the 2nd/3rd round. Give Correa another chance - Vrabel speaks well enough about him I think he returns. With Landry, Roberson and D’Andre Walker plus a draft pick, you can get great competition going in camp but relax the necessity of drafting an EDGE player until day two in favor of a CB or OT with the Titans first pick. 

[socaljake]

2 minutes ago, GLinks said:

I’m partial to Quinn if you’re going veteran and a guy in the 2nd/3rd round. Give Correa another chance - Vrabel speaks well enough about him I think he returns. With Landry, Roberson and D’Andre Walker plus a draft pick, you can get great competition going in camp but relax the necessity of drafting an EDGE player until day two in favor of a CB or OT with the Titans first pick. 

 This. I'd prefer a veteran because we do have Landry who is still young + Roberson and Walker. They could still add another guy, but not necessarily a high pick. A vet, someone who's already produced would be preferred.

 

We need someone who can make plays in the playoffs if we're going to make another deep run. I don't really want to count on a rookie opposite Landry to do that.

[rns90]

2 hours ago, socaltitan said:

 This. I'd prefer a veteran because we do have Landry who is still young + Roberson and Walker. They could still add another guy, but not necessarily a high pick. A vet, someone who's already produced would be preferred.

 

We need someone who can make plays in the playoffs if we're going to make another deep run. I don't really want to count on a rookie opposite Landry to do that.

I'll be shocked if he doesn't add a vet edge guy for significant money.  A)There is zero money spent at that spot (Landry is the highest paid edge at 1.5 million) and B) this draft class is sort of weak C)FA has multiple options at edge.

[tgo]

As far as edge, I’d think the most likely options are Clowney, Van Noy, Addison. 

 

Others: Fackrell, Sheard, Nassib, JPP

[socaljake]

7 hours ago, rns90 said:

I'll be shocked if he doesn't add a vet edge guy for significant money.  A)There is zero money spent at that spot (Landry is the highest paid edge at 1.5 million) and B) this draft class is sort of weak C)FA has multiple options at edge.

I think he definitely has to. Even if you spend a 1st round pick on an EDGE guy, it's still a rookie. There's a chance he may not produce right away. And even if he does, the rookie wall is a real thing, And then you have unproven depth behind him. I'd just rather have someone I feel comfortable can step in and produce right away. This also looks like a much better class at OT and CB than EDGE. I always believe in trying to draft where the best value is. And OT/CB would fill needs as well so it's a better fit than EDGE imo.

[tgo]

Honestly I’ll be more surprised if we don’t sign Clowney than if we do. 

 

Maybe it’s just my bias and dot connecting though. 

[Titans279]

6 minutes ago, tgo said:

Honestly I’ll be more surprised if we don’t sign Clowney than if we do. 

 

Maybe it’s just my bias and dot connecting though. 

 

Seems like unless Vrabel doesn't like him or he doesn't like Vrabel how can we not be the favorites?

JRob has been shown to chase high profile free agents. We should be able to offer a competitive deal.

[rns90]

47 minutes ago, tgo said:

Honestly I’ll be more surprised if we don’t sign Clowney than if we do. 

 

Maybe it’s just my bias and dot connecting though. 

It just makes waaaay too much sense to me.  As long as we don't get outbid by the Colts by a lot, I feel kinda confident about this as well.