Democratic Nomination for 2020 - UPDATED to include those who have officially announced

[Legaltitan]

11 hours ago, Downtown said:

Even Reagan was Governor before President. I love Beto. I just don't think middle of the road Americans would get behind it. 

If Trump has proven anything, it's that Americans don't give a shit about political experience. At leas Beto served in the House, so he's not a federal government neophyte.

 

Another thing Trump has proven, for once and for all (I have been screaming this for years) is that Americans really don't much care about the policy positions of the person they vote for President. I mean obviously the stance on important issues matters to many people, but the most important thing for a person to win the presidency is that they present well on TV, and be seen as likable and genuine. This will beat out an experienced wonk every time.

 

Clinton over Bush Sr.

Clinton over Dole

Bush over Gore

Bush over Kerry

Obama over McCain (McCain was also seen as somewhat likable and down to earth, but paled in the face of the Obama freight train)

Obama over Romney

Trump over Clinton

 

It's way more than 50% about perception and optics. Why people continue to ignore this obvious truth (not talking about you nec) when we have decades of evidence is beyond me.

 

[chef]

27 minutes ago, Legaltitan said:

If Trump has proven anything, it's that Americans don't give a shit about political experience. At leas Beto served in the House, so he's not a federal government neophyte.

 

Another thing Trump has proven, for once and for all (I have been screaming this for years) is that Americans really don't much care about the policy positions of the person they vote for President. I mean obviously the stance on important issues matters to many people, but the most important thing for a person to win the presidency is that they present well on TV, and be seen as likable and genuine. This will beat out an experienced wonk every time.

 

Clinton over Bush Sr.

Clinton over Dole

Bush over Gore

Bush over Kerry

Obama over McCain (McCain was also seen as somewhat likable and down to earth, but paled in the face of the Obama freight train)

Obama over Romney

Trump over Clinton

 

It's way more than 50% about perception and optics. Why people continue to ignore this obvious truth (not talking about you nec) when we have decades of evidence is beyond me.

 

It's always been the same as voting for jr high class president.  Popularity contest.  Most know they're not getting extra tater tots at school lunch no matter whom they vote. (Well, maybe not a lot of trump voters)

[luvyablue256]

On 11/8/2018 at 7:42 AM, ctm said:

The real power in the democratic party is transitioning to women and more specifically black women. 2020 might be a cycle too early  but give me the name of whoever wins the South Carolina primary and I'll tell you who has a good chance to be on one of the spots on the ticket.

 

The problem is the democrats will hang themselves trying to play identity politics. Dems must use the same strategy to flip the house... issues, issues, issues.

 

Personally, I hope a moderate dem governor with teeth and balls can emerge.

[tgo]

9 hours ago, Starkiller said:

Polls this early are worthless. 

They're useful for name recognition. That's about it. 

 

That said, I expect it to play out similarly to how it looks now. Biden/O'Rourke/Sanders/Warren vying for the top spots. 

[luvyablue256]

On 11/12/2018 at 12:51 PM, Legaltitan said:

What do you mean "Dems trot her out?" If Hillary wants to run, what do you propose the Democratic Party do about it? Tackle her?

Yes, with reckless abandon.

[Legaltitan]

1 hour ago, luvyablue256 said:

Personally, I hope a moderate dem governor with teeth and balls can emerge.

Governor from Montana fits this description.

 

I really like him but he's going to have trouble getting traction in this crowded field.

[IsntLifeFunny]

3 hours ago, Legaltitan said:

If Trump has proven anything, it's that Americans don't give a shit about political experience. At leas Beto served in the House, so he's not a federal government neophyte.

 

Another thing Trump has proven, for once and for all (I have been screaming this for years) is that Americans really don't much care about the policy positions of the person they vote for President. I mean obviously the stance on important issues matters to many people, but the most important thing for a person to win the presidency is that they present well on TV, and be seen as likable and genuine. This will beat out an experienced wonk every time.

 

Clinton over Bush Sr.

Clinton over Dole

Bush over Gore

Bush over Kerry

Obama over McCain (McCain was also seen as somewhat likable and down to earth, but paled in the face of the Obama freight train)

Obama over Romney

Trump over Clinton

 

It's way more than 50% about perception and optics. Why people continue to ignore this obvious truth (not talking about you nec) when we have decades of evidence is beyond me.

 

It really says something for the optics of Clinton that Trump was received more warmly than her. The campaign slogan is an under discussed phenomenon you're tapping into here; 'I'm with her'. That's the opposite of how Americans want to feel. They want to be emboldened and feel like the candidate is with them, not the other way around. I'm not saying this is why she lost, but the psychology of the whole reasoning for making that the slogan is interesting. She took the entirely wrong approach. 

[ctm]

California and Texas have moved their 2020 primaries up to March 3rd.  California voters can even mail their ballots in before New Hampshire votes.  Candidates are going to have to raise money very early to compete in these states.

[Legaltitan]

54 minutes ago, IsntLifeFunny said:

It really says something for the optics of Clinton that Trump was received more warmly than her. The campaign slogan is an under discussed phenomenon you're tapping into here; 'I'm with her'. That's the opposite of how Americans want to feel. They want to be emboldened and feel like the candidate is with them, not the other way around. I'm not saying this is why she lost, but the psychology of the whole reasoning for making that the slogan is interesting. She took the entirely wrong approach. 

Good point. Never really much thought about that

[abenjami]

I have no idea who should get the nomination.  But i'll throw this out there.

 

Nominating another woman candidate is a terrible idea, not matter how qualified she is.  They aren't going to be able to swing Trump voting morons into voting for a woman.

[tgo]

A Biden-O’Rourke ticket would be unbeatable and makes great sense. 

 

Add to that the fact that Biden has discussed the possibility of running for only one term. 

[Starkiller]

6 hours ago, ctm said:

California and Texas have moved their 2020 primaries up to March 3rd.  California voters can even mail their ballots in before New Hampshire votes.  Candidates are going to have to raise money very early to compete in these states.

I’m not even sure the field will try to compete in CA. Harris has it locked up if she runs and, as you said, it’s too expensive. 

 

Maybe TX will be different. 

[Starkiller]

1 hour ago, tgo said:

A Biden-O’Rourke ticket would be umbeatable and makes great sense. 

 

Add to that the fact that Biden has discussed the possibility of running for only one term. 

Biden could be overshadowed by Beto. That’s not necessarily a good look. 

[tgo]

7 minutes ago, Starkiller said:

Biden could be overshadowed by Beto. That’s not necessarily a good look. 

Maybe in a sense but it’s hard to over shadow Biden. 

 

Beto’s issue will be qualifications/executive experience. 

[Legaltitan]

1 hour ago, tgo said:

A Biden-O’Rourke ticket would be umbeatable and makes great sense. 

 

Add to that the fact that Biden has discussed the possibility of running for only one term. 

Hell no. I love good ol Joe as much as anyone but he was always flawed and now he's lost his fast ball. Dude had numerous chances and never could even win the nomination.