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Invasion of Ukraine: Drone Incursion Into Poland


tgo

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So apparently Ukraine has basically decoupled it's up to date intelligence apparatus from the US because we kept leaking to Russia...awesome. 

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/TrendoraX/s/yOdhA261h6

 

The he video shows Macron talking about France now securing 2/3rds of intelligence for Ukraine. The news then goes into discussion of why...and it's because Ukraine found us leaking to Russia. 

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Do you know how fucking stupid you sound spouting this shit right now? 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Running some numbers today b/c I got curious. Assuming this is accurate:

Russia_Population_Pyramid.svg


 

The key point isn’t that Russia is “running out of men” in an absolute sense. it’s that they’re running out of men they can afford to lose at the current rate.

 

Baseline numbers:

  • Russian males age 15–45 ≈ ~29.5 million
  • Practical combat age band is more like 20–39, which is ~18–19 million
  • After accounting for:
    • medical unfitness (~30%)
    • critical job exemptions (~25%)
    • political / practical non-usability (draft evasion, internal security needs, unreliability, etc., ~25%)
  • You’re left with roughly 7–8 million realistically military-eligible males on paper

From total war casualties (~1.2M since 2022), roughly:

  • ~300–400k dead
  • ~300–400k permanently disabled

So about ~700k permanently removed from future combat capacity.

 

That brings the remaining usable pool down to roughly ~6–7 million... on paper.

 

 

But here’s the constraint that actually matters:
Russia likely has <1 million additional troops it can mobilize without triggering serious political and internal stability risks, because each new mobilization wave:

  • pulls older, less healthy, more urban men
  • hits socially and economically critical sectors
  • raises unrest, evasion, and elite resistance
  • degrades force quality faster than numbers can replace it

Current burn rate:

  • ~30–40k casualties per month
  • ~8–12k permanently lost per month
  • That’s ~100–150k permanently removed per year

Numerically, Russia can absorb that.
Politically and institutionally, it probably can’t.

 

Conclusion:
If Russia continues another year at the current intensity, they likely hit a wall where:

  • force quality collapses faster than replacements arrive
  • another major mobilization risks internal instability
  • regime security competes directly with war manpower

 

 

Personally I think they're already hitting the wall of force quality collapsing faster than replacements arrive if you look at the casualty numbers. I don't think they last another year.

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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 4 weeks later...

 

 

 

I've been resisting the urge to post these but I keep seeing coup rumors from lots of channels. We'll see...

 

 

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4 minutes ago, reo said:

 

I was listening to NPR today talking a bit about the diversification of Ukraine's power grid and how it's left Russians with the inability to strike and then rush places on the front line. 

 

This is the other side of it. They're wolverines. Trump abandoned the country on the front line of new age warfare. What a genius. 

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1 hour ago, reo said:

 

 

 

 

Ukraine might've just gotten all the funding they need. Russia might've just lost. 

 

Now that is a genuinely interesting update on the global stage. 

 

Since Reo won't say it, Ukraine signed a mutual defense pact with the Saudis. Money for technology. 

 

Trump and the idiots should have been doing this the whole time, but c'est la vie. 

Edited by IsntLifeFunny
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