What happened to Marcus Mariota?

[Number9]

1 hour ago, abc2330 said:

He definitely appears to need at least a year to smooth a lot of things out before he begins developing bad habits.  Even then, who knows.  But the talent is great and I'll believe in him if we take him.  

I think you have to be like any other team that need a QB.  You get the best one you can get.  The Ravens saw value sitting there at the end of round one and pulled the trigger.  Or look at Kansas City, Mahomes didn't have to work out.  The Patriots keep a QB who can come in and win a game if Tom's out.  They then trade these players.  The Titans could have gotten a lot for Billy Volek if things had not blown up.

 

The problem here though, Mariota just dropped off the map.  They need to own up to why.  The Raven fans were not left debating about was it this, was it that.  I think he's injured too much and the injuries lead to subpar play.  But it's time somebody just came out and owned up to something. 

[OILERMAN]

5 minutes ago, Number9 said:

The problem here though, Mariota just dropped off the map.  

I really don't think this is true. I believe @BudAdams posted some numbers a while back. 

 

Mariota has pretty much been the same guy the whole time. His rookie season he had two huge games against terrible defenses(TB and NO), they accounted for 8 TDs and 0 INTs out of his rookie season. Minus those two games he had 11 TDs and 10 INTs. Look familiar? 

 

In 2016 he had the great 8 game stretch in 2016 in the middle of the season. in the other 8 games he had 5 TDs and 6 INTs. 

 

So over a 4 year season he's been pretty consistent the whole time aside from the 8 game stretch in 2016 and a few outliers his rookie season against terrible defenses

[Number9]

45 minutes ago, OILERMAN said:

I really don't think this is true. I believe @BudAdams posted some numbers a while back. 

 

Mariota has pretty much been the same guy the whole time. His rookie season he had two huge games against terrible defenses(TB and NO), they accounted for 8 TDs and 0 INTs out of his rookie season. Minus those two games he had 11 TDs and 10 INTs. Look familiar? 

 

In 2016 he had the great 8 game stretch in 2016 in the middle of the season. in the other 8 games he had 5 TDs and 6 INTs. 

 

So over a 4 year season he's been pretty consistent the whole time aside from the 8 game stretch in 2016 and a few outliers his rookie season against terrible defenses

Pretty strong argument.  I got nothing.  Gonna be a long season.

[StephenIsLegend]

3 hours ago, abc2330 said:

He definitely appears to need at least a year to smooth a lot of things out before he begins developing bad habits.  Even then, who knows.  But the talent is great and I'll believe in him if we take him.  

The last part is where we agree the most.   If he becomes a Titan, I'll root for him until there isn't a need to.  The mechanics just scare me. 

[BudsOilers]

2 hours ago, OILERMAN said:

I really don't think this is true. I believe @BudAdams posted some numbers a while back. 

 

Mariota has pretty much been the same guy the whole time. His rookie season he had two huge games against terrible defenses(TB and NO), they accounted for 8 TDs and 0 INTs out of his rookie season. Minus those two games he had 11 TDs and 10 INTs. Look familiar? 

 

In 2016 he had the great 8 game stretch in 2016 in the middle of the season. in the other 8 games he had 5 TDs and 6 INTs. 

 

So over a 4 year season he's been pretty consistent the whole time aside from the 8 game stretch in 2016 and a few outliers his rookie season against terrible defenses

In that 8 game stretch:

 

Titans went 5-3 and averaged 30.75 PPG

Mariota had 21 TD/3 INT, a Passer Rating of 117.7 and a TD % of 8.7%

 

The defensive rankings they faced......

Miami - 18th

Cleveland - 30th

Indy - 22nd

Jax - 25th

SD - 29th

GB - 21st

Indy - 22nd

Chi - 24th

 

Things came back to earth in the last 3 games - Denver had the 4th ranked defense and KC was 7th that season and then there was the Jax game Mariota got hurt in but he was 8-20 for 99 yards at that point.

 

In the 50 games outside of the 8 game streak, he has an 84.8 passer rating, 52 TD to 40 INT, TD% of 3.6% and bear in mind Oilerman's point in 2015 where he had two 4 TD/0 INT games against teams that were 26th and 32nd in defense in 2015 (TB and NO).

 

I do think a huge issue is that teams scouted the Titans offense/MM and starting taking away things they were succeeding at.  To date, there has not been an adjustment that has stuck.

 

Saying that, 2018 is just hard to evaluate as he was hurt for significant stretches.  At the same time, he looked awful in preseason before the injury and from reports in the TC practices. 

 

Hopeful he recaptures 2016 productivity but I'm not optimistic he will.

[Number9]

Another informative post bringing out some things that aren't on the surface.  ^^

 

I was looking because I want to find a reason for hope we can win with Mariota.  Also, I was listening to NFL radio and they think the Titans have a lot of faith that Mariota can become that 2016 QB again.  So, I tried to see what happened.  But the facts @OILERMAN and @BudAdams have presented make it hard to think JRob and company even believe he's going to be any good.  

 

If they don't go hard after a serious backup or rookie to push Mariota, I see the fanbase dwindling even more.  The offense we ran is going to be even harder to sell this year.

[SleepingTitan]

Broken bones, rehab, and pain killers will change a person. Especially a square. Maybe the contract year will help motivate him. 

[nine]

IMO, the single most glaring and critical area of Marcus' dropoff has been red zone passing.   

 

2015: 45 att, 64% completion rate, 16 TD

2016:  59 att, 61% comp, 19 TD

2017:   49 att, 48% comp, 6 TD

2018:   51 att, 54% comp, 8 TD, 1 INT

 

Over his first four seasons, he averaged roughly 50 RZ passes each year.   He had a total of 35 RZ touchdowns in years 1 & 2...but only 14 RZ touchdowns over the past two years.

 

In 2016, the Titans' red zone offense was simply ridiculous.   Reaching the 20-yard line was a guaranteed touchdown...and opposing defenses knew it;  the only question was how many plays until it happened.   The offense as a whole wasn't spectacular that year....but in the red zone they were absolutely dominant.   And Marcus was obviously a huge part of that success.

 

Defenses obviously caught onto to what they were doing and identified some of Marcus' tendencies....and two years later, he's still struggling to overcome it.

 

I won't pretend to know the answers...but if there's one area where Marcus needs to step it up, it's the red zone.

[BudsOilers]

@nine yes red zone efficiency in the passing game is where the massive regression occurred and it’s also where the opportunity for improvement lies.

 

 

[BudsOilers]

https://mobile.twitter.com/SharpFootball/status/1097200513278533632

 

i would love to see how MM and other QBs would do in this drill

[MamlngEnvy]

21 hours ago, StephenIsLegend said:

Again, who do you think is the best QB they could get this year? I think another reason everyone is pretty okay with giving Mariota this year is because the QB crop doesn’t look so appealing this year. 

I’d bet at least 3 available qbs outperform mariota 

 

 

every year qbs were available that outperformed Mary. His production isn’t anything great at all. 

[Number9]

3 hours ago, BudAdams said:

https://mobile.twitter.com/SharpFootball/status/1097200513278533632

 

i would love to see how MM and other QBs would do in this drill

That's pretty amazing.  I bet Mariota would miss the whole circle at least once, of course it would he the target's fault.

[Number9]

5 hours ago, nine said:

IMO, the single most glaring and critical area of Marcus' dropoff has been red zone passing.   

 

2015: 45 att, 64% completion rate, 16 TD

2016:  59 att, 61% comp, 19 TD

2017:   49 att, 48% comp, 6 TD

2018:   51 att, 54% comp, 8 TD, 1 INT

 

Over his first four seasons, he averaged roughly 50 RZ passes each year.   He had a total of 35 RZ touchdowns in years 1 & 2...but only 14 RZ touchdowns over the past two years.

 

In 2016, the Titans' red zone offense was simply ridiculous.   Reaching the 20-yard line was a guaranteed touchdown...and opposing defenses knew it;  the only question was how many plays until it happened.   The offense as a whole wasn't spectacular that year....but in the red zone they were absolutely dominant.   And Marcus was obviously a huge part of that success.

 

Defenses obviously caught onto to what they were doing and identified some of Marcus' tendencies....and two years later, he's still struggling to overcome it.

 

I won't pretend to know the answers...but if there's one area where Marcus needs to step it up, it's the red zone.

Okay.  Here we are again.  

2015 & 2016 104 att  35 TD    

2017& 2018 100 att 14 TD plus 1 INT  That's a 60% drop-off.

 

When you look at him after 2016, his whole persona changed.  The game wasn't too fast for him at first, them he began to hesitate.  He was never cocky, but he played with a little badass.  He still has it running and blocking, but he completely lost it throwing the ball.  He has a quick release and the ball used to come out. 

[OILERMAN]

The redzone numbers in 2016 were totally unsustainable, that was a huge outlier 

[BudsOilers]

1 hour ago, OILERMAN said:

The redzone numbers in 2016 were totally unsustainable, that was a huge outlier 

RZ TD% stats by year

 

2015 - 65% (5th)

2016 - 72% (1st)

2017 - 54.55% (14th)

2018 - 53.2% (23rd)

 

Only 4 teams in this time period had TD% over 70% - Titans in 2016 and 3 teams in 2018 - Pittsburgh, KC, and Cincinnati (shocker). 

 

In terms of TD pass % in the red zone, this is where it gets interesting.  I used a minimum of 20 RZ pass attempts to avoid the trick play folks.

 

Mariota was #1 in 2015 with a 35.6% TD% of red zone passes.  In 2016, he was #2 overall with 32.2%  In 2017, he dropped to 35th!  (12.2%).  2018 - 32nd with 15.7%.