Cryptocurrency

[BobbyCoins]

52 minutes ago, Supdawg said:

Elon Musk or not, cycle top or not, I am not fucking selling a god damn thing and I will continue buying all the way down. Bitcoin will rise again, it is 100% guaranteed. 

 

 

[BobbyCoins]

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/fiat-mindset-economist-dont-get-bitcoin

 

Quote

It’s a tulip mania, a Ponzi scheme, a bubble about to burst. You’ve heard it all before. And not just from your nocoiner friends: This narrative has been pushed for years by many famous economists with a Nobel on their shelf. Why do renowned economists fail to see the value in bitcoin? It’s not a failure of understanding; it’s a difference of worldview.

 

... 

 

While an economic policy based on mainstream economics seemed to work over the past decades, it is doomed in the long run. Snowballing debt, fueled by easy money policy, simply isn’t sustainable and something has to give: Either the debt will be defaulted upon, or the purchasing power of fiat money will evaporate. As Dylan LeClair succinctly puts it: “There is mathematically no way out of the current economic environment.”

 

...

 

"Instead of money created by the click of a mouse, we have money that must be mined — created through resource-intensive computations. ... In other words, cryptocurrency enthusiasts are effectively celebrating the use of cutting-edge technology to set the monetary system back 300 years. Why would you want to do that? What problem does it solve?" — Paul Krugman

 

@OILERMAN

@titanruss

@wiscotitansfan

@Supdawg

@9 Nines

 

Thoughts? 

[9 Nines]

Bloodhound Gang just announced the band will only take bitcoins in royalty payments. 
 

 

[titanruss]

1 hour ago, NashvilleNinja said:

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/fiat-mindset-economist-dont-get-bitcoin

 

 

@OILERMAN

@titanruss

@wiscotitansfan

@Supdawg

@9 Nines

 

Thoughts? 

 

The old saying about not being able to change a mans mind when his paycheck is on the line applies here. .. and yeah there is some "fight the power" undertones to btc. So those two things are pretty big emotional barriers of acceptance for most financially comfortable people... even before you argue about economic systems or crypto merits or inevitabilities in money and trade.

 

 

[Supdawg]

9 hours ago, NashvilleNinja said:

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/fiat-mindset-economist-dont-get-bitcoin

 

 

@OILERMAN

@titanruss

@wiscotitansfan

@Supdawg

@9 Nines

 

Thoughts? 

 

Everyone who really understands Bitcoin realizes this. The current debt, money printing, and wealth inequality will eventually create issues. The government has 2 choices. Default on their debt (unlikely) or keep debasing the currency. 

[OILERMAN]

11 hours ago, NashvilleNinja said:

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/fiat-mindset-economist-dont-get-bitcoin

 

 

@OILERMAN

@titanruss

@wiscotitansfan

@Supdawg

@9 Nines

 

Thoughts? 

 

The problem is BTC isn't a currency and it's never going to be used as such. It's nothing more than a speculative investment. BTW, people can make money off of speculation but the odds of it going to nothing are sky high. 

 

China's government is starting the process of using block chain, if the US follows I'd guess that would hurt BTC. 

 

Of course the cultist will laugh but they are 100% going all in no matter what 

[Supdawg]

1 hour ago, OILERMAN said:

 

The problem is BTC isn't a currency and it's never going to be used as such. It's nothing more than a speculative investment. BTW, people can make money off of speculation but the odds of it going to nothing are sky high. 

 

China's government is starting the process of using block chain, if the US follows I'd guess that would hurt BTC. 

 

Of course the cultist will laugh but they are 100% going all in no matter what 

 

You are confusing currency with money. And to say that it will never be currency just shows how narrow minded you think. There are billions of people in the world that doesn't have the luxury of living in a G7 country with double and triple digit inflation, and tons which use BTC as a store of value and a currency. That's the beauty of Bitcoin. It is so many things to so many people. So stop thinking like a narrow minded American, and understand that Bitcoin has a global use case. 

[titanruss]

There will be a future where there are many systems of currencies and assets and money all at the same time very soon. Deflationary and inflationary together. The wild Wild monetary West is really just starting. 
 

There is a huge need for a decentralized world reserve currency or asset that is not manipulatable at one or even several countries whims. 
 

world reserve currencies usually have a few decade lead ins before they establish themselves for around 150 years.. but that is speeding up with globalization. 
 

the USA will not be in power for much longer. Much of europe and the world has already lost its dreamy eyed gaze at the USA for what it could be and has surpassed us in pretty much all of our ideals. Our monetary policies, complicated taxing systems, the economic cronyism, two faced virtues signaling and the snails pace we have shown to adapt will push us out the door as the lead currency. We've been devalued a couple of times now recently. 
 

the only traditional options after that are the Chinese rmb (lol don't make me laugh), Swiss franc and the euro. Bankers will attempt the last two but the world will accept neither... so something will need to come in. People no longer see the collective value of 1 country basically being in charge of the wealth of the world. 

The hole is there.
what fills it will be interesting btc may not be it .. but the best prospects that ticks the boxes right now are decentralized crypto. 
 

it's an inevitability.. just depends on your timeline. 

[9 Nines]

There is no such thing as a world reserve currency.    First, there is no world currency, so there is no world reserve currency. Instead, when entities using different currencies engage in trade, they exchange currencies at floating rates for the most part - no "reserve currency" involved.  In contemporary times, people have labeled the US dollar as a the world's reserve currency because many product exchanges are priced in US dollars. This was done out of the convenience that most entities had US dollars or easy access to it. So it was cheaper to price stuff in US dollars since it had a more efficient exchange process and therefore less exchange cost.    For example, this is why oil was often priced in US dollars, not because of some conspiracy that people who use the term petro-dollar think.  

In addition, a nation currency will have a reserve currency only if that currency's issuing nation formally pegs its currency to another and contractually agrees to exchange its currency for that other currency at a set rate.  Fixed rate exchange currencies were more common decades ago for  developing nations, where few to no trading partners would  accept that nation's currency otherwise. Currently, most to all float freely. So no reserve currency anywhere of note. 

One could make an argument, that a dominant currency in a trading block, Euro for the European Union as an example, is close to a reserve currency for those member nations but I do not think any are formally pegged to the Euro, instead floating freely, so it is not reserve currency example either. 

Edited May 18, 2021 by 9 Nines

[9 Nines]

No currency is going to hedge against real inflation, be it a fiat currency or a fixed-limit crypto currency or a fairly limited resource such as gold. 

 

Real inflation would be caused by sustained, as opposed to substitutable and/or temporary, supply shocks in labor and/or raw materials, a situation where economies cannot produce the supply of goods that are being demanded for long periods.  Real sustained inflation across major areas or the whole globe would have to be caused by some form of wide spread chaos - e.g.  wide scale war, or large scale weather events, or some driving force that is causing sustained supply shocks across large swatches of the globe. 

In that case, nothing is going to hold its value in the form of a currency.   For example, if much food was truly limited to where consumers could not get enough to eat for a sustained period of time, people are not going to trade food for a bitcoin for anywhere close to the same rate they did previous to that inflation situation.   In fact, electricity would probably be sporadic, so bitcoin would probably be close to worthless.  

And absent wide scale supply shocks, and outside of obscure, small nations that are dependent on a few exported products that have been negatively affected, you are not going to have sustained, material inflation, unless in a chaos situation, which again probably means no to limited electricity in which case crypto is no-go.  And if we go back to sustained 2 to 5% annual inflation, something we have not had in about 40 years, that means the economy is growing very well, labor wages are increasing, and most are enjoying the good life, so sit back and enjoy it.   

Edited May 18, 2021 by 9 Nines

[wiscotitansfan]

52 minutes ago, titanruss said:

There is a huge need for a decentralized world reserve currency or asset that is not manipulatable at one or even several countries whims. 

Compared to just 1 individual person's manic episodes?

[9 Nines]

Looking into this from a trading perspective, MicroStrategy is the cleanest way to invest in bitcoin no matter if you want to be long or short.   Its CEO has made MicroStrategy basically bitcoin. 

Based on their charts on top of each other, the beta between the two is probably close to one.  Also, MicroStrategy's value seems to be completely tied to bitcoin.  For example, as of 3-31-21, per its 10-Q, MicroStrategy had 91,326 bitcoins.  At today's prices, that is just shy of $4 billion.  As of time of writing this, stock quote system are valuing MicroStartegy's marketcap at $4.7 billion.  

So in the near term, Microstrategy is going to trade in par to bitcoin, and based on the CEO's commitment to bitcoin, it is probably going to track bitcoin over the long term, unless insiders oust the CEO. 

 

By the way, the MicroStartegy issued debt to buy 20, 857 bitcoin during bitcoin's inflated rise in the first quarter of 2021, so if bitcoin falls hard, I suspect that MicroStrategy will fall even harder out of the situation in which it put itself related to bitcoin. 

 

 

Edited May 18, 2021 by 9 Nines

[9 Nines]

Thinking about this further, if one is really committed in bitcoin and believes it is only going to increase in value over the long term, you would be foolish to own it instead of MicroStrategy. 

 

MicroStrategy is going to be more liquid, and safer:

You can sell shares in MicroStartegy instantly. 

Brokerages are insured on their holdings, so you will be made whole on your MicroStrategy investment, as far as number of shares you own, if something were to happen the brokerage.    So you do not have to worry about losing your key or experiencing the not so rare losses of bitcoin that people  holding bitcoin experience.  

More bitcoins over time:   

MicroStrategy is likely to provide leverage to your bitcoin.  Its CEO advices people to issue/spend in debt to acquire more bit coin, and the company has put action into his words - MicroStrategy  has already issued debt to buy bitcoin. So one should assume, unless forced to quit by insiders if bitcoin falls hard, that MicroStrategy will continue to issue debt to buy bitcoin. 

So if you believe in bitcoin, you should believe that an investment in MicroStratgey would mean more bitcoins relative to your MicroStartegy shares over time. 

Edited May 18, 2021 by 9 Nines

[titanruss]

48 minutes ago, 9 Nines said:

Thinking about this further, if one is really committed in bitcoin and believes it is only going to increase in value over the long term, you would be foolish to own it instead of MicroStrategy. 

 

MicroStrategy is going to be more liquid, and safer:

You can sell shares in MicroStartegy instantly. 

Brokerages are insured on their holdings, so you will be made whole on your MicroStrategy investment, as far as number of shares you own, if something were to happen the brokerage.    So you do not have to worry about losing your key or experiencing the not so rare losses of bitcoin that people  holding bitcoin experience.  

More bitcoins over time:   

MicroStrategy is likely to provide leverage to your bitcoin.  Its CEO advices people to issue/spend in debt to acquire more bit coin, and the company has put action into his words - MicroStrategy  has already issued debt to buy bitcoin. So one should assume, unless forced to quit by insiders if bitcoin falls hard, that MicroStrategy will continue to issue debt to buy bitcoin. 

So if you believe in bitcoin, you should believe that an investment in MicroStratgey would mean more bitcoins relative to your MicroStartegy shares over time. 

 

This paragraph and the previous post couldnt be more wrong. If you want to buy BTC you can actually own at one point with a discount and protection of a company name and fed backing.. go with GBTC. Microstrategy is all in one basket. Grayscale at least purchases other coins and can sustain if some die out eventually.

 

You also don't seem to understand microstrategies "strategy".. you dont know their loan terms or the cost taken to purchase the BTC. But he's studied the game long enough to know to take a loan he can deal with without being forced to sell anything for several years in a rapidly inflating economy.. . You are still thinking short term.

 

Your semantics argument on world reserve currency from your first post earlier is a little pointless but fine, let it stand. The real argument is where the store of wealth is largely held and at present - currency wise - the USD is the world reserve.  - because it's what is held most of. Its as simple as that and any need to try and complicate it just smells of a pedantic writer trying to convince themselves of a stance. The USD will fall off and on a global trade system it makes little sense to have the main reserve be one particular countries currency. ... but there is a definite need to have a consistent currency viewed as the world reserve for longer periods of time.

 

So it will get replaced.

 

As for your second post about real sustained inflation... a mix of "so what?" and "you still don't understand economic /supply shifts in a deflationary economy."

 

- "so what"  - because in that instance (war/famine scenario) nothing matters except food/shelter and the USD will be just as pointless as any other. .. and add in the caveat you try to throw out that BTC wont survive without electricity to trade... well LOL.. neither will the USD! Haha, entire countries are already going cashless. Keep up man! 

... Yet BTC (or global decentralized currencies) have a chance to come out of that scenario still existing whereas many countries of the world and their currencies would cease to exist forever.

 

-the "you don't get it" is just the production and supply differences in austrian vs keynesian economies. it doesnt have to be one or the other - both can co-exist and already do.

[BobbyCoins]

7 hours ago, OILERMAN said:

The problem is BTC isn't a currency and it's never going to be used as such. It's nothing more than a speculative investment. BTW, people can make money off of speculation but the odds of it going to nothing are sky high.

 

No, it's not a currency. Even Bitcoin evangelist Saylor has said as much. It's only a commodity asset at this point. But haven't all assets that became currency started out that way before being adopted as currency? That's not to say that BTC will ever become a massively adopted currency like that, but it could. And even if it never reaches that level of adoption it doesn't mean it couldn't have major utility, like gold. It already actually does, really.

 

We may not be digital beings, but most, if not all modern business, is conducted digitally or at least has digital representation of that business. And I would guess most if not all people in major metropolitan areas, and even many rural areas, make all their daily purchases with debit/credit cards so the grounds for a cashless society with a digital currency to take root and grow have already been tilled and the seeds planted. It's just a matter of which seeds will grow the most and maybe the quickest.

 

7 hours ago, OILERMAN said:

China's government is starting the process of using block chain, if the US follows I'd guess that would hurt BTC.

 

The fact that governments are starting to wake up to the idea of developing their own blockchain should inform you on the utility that BTC's blockchain already has and will continue to have. 

 

A CBDC is one thing I don't think many want or should want, at least in societies or countries that are supposed to be free nations. If the US replaces or supplements all its currency with their own official "FedCoin" there's major opportunity for invasion of privacy concerns. Do you really want the government to own information of every digital transaction you ever make?

 

That's at least one advantage Bitcoin seems to have over any governmentally controlled crypto. The transactions may be out there on the blockchain, but it's anonymous. I really doubt transactions on any government's blockchain would be anonymous to the government, or remain anonymous if they started out that way.

 

Policy changes could have a funny way of effecting what a government could or couldn't control on a far more granular level in regards to the kinds of transactions its citizens could make or even what kinds of businesses are even allowed to engage in commerce on its network. And if it's the only network around and we've moved cashless...

 

If you don't want the US government having access to that kind of info imagine how much more damaging to the Chinese population (or even the world) for their government to have that level of access. They already have an iron fist around their throats as it is. If there were going to be wide adoption by the world of CBDCs we'd be better hope the US or some other "free" nation gets there before China does due to network effect of getting there first.

 

We should actually hope BTC gets such a mass adoption before any of the world's governments do. Or better yet, we could ensure that it does by investing in it and adopting it since it and its network effect already exist.

 

7 hours ago, OILERMAN said:

Of course the cultist will laugh but they are 100% going all in no matter what 

 

My dad balked at the idea for years, and still does, about his retirement check and other checks he gets requiring direct deposit. He hates banks and wants to carry all his cash on him. Well, he had to give up the ghost on personally cashing his check at some corner market. He still maintains that hate energy and still carries his cash if for no other reason than spite, but all his checks are direct deposited now and there's not a thing he can do about it. 

 

I suspect we're all going to be all in eventually, whether we want to be or not, whether we're cultists about it or not. It's just a matter of the particulars and whether or not we're going to be ahead of it and benefit from it or have to grind at it from the bottom up. I just don't want to be like my dad, pissing and moaning while pounding my fists on the walls in unquenchable aggravation.