Scouting the Opposition: Chiefs - Week 5

[Cyrus]

The Chiefs are off to a hot start and are undefeated so far. Can they keep winning and how far can Alex Smith take them? Sitting in the hypothetical film room here are the major takeaways and where the Titans may want to win.

Chiefs Offense:

Chiefs Scheme - Condensed Passing Game: Due to philosophy or Alex Smith's limitations, the Chiefs have been playing a highly condensed passing offense that focuses on short passing attempts and rhythm throws out of shotgun and pistol formations. Despite having a downfield threat in Dwayne Bowe, the Chiefs has primarily targeted Jamaal Charles near the line of scrimmage and other wide receivers on slants, crossers and curls.

Where the Titans can win: Contest routes with press coverage and key Jamaal Charles in the pass game. The Titans have the option to play a number of coverage types, but disrupting receiver's releases and staying on Charles out of the backfield will be critical to shutting down their offense. Zach Brown may prove to be a critical matchup for Jamaal Charles when covering him in the flats or adding late pressure when Charles stays in to pass block.

Alex Smith - Conservatism: Despite open downfield reads, Smith has been hesitant to pull the trigger on downfield throws. Smith has consistently checked down to safe options in the flats or pulled the ball down to run when there's almost any element of risk in the passing game.

Where the Titans can win: Consider isolating outside receivers in Cover 1 or Cover 3 and send additional pressure to compound Smith's hesitancy to throw the ball downfield. With a rookie Right Tackle and back-up Tight Ends the right side of the offensive line may be a target for loops and stunts. Against other teams the Chiefs sometimes failed to pick up assignments when additional rushers came from the right side.

When blitzing the Titans will need to ensure that Smith doesn't break the pocket to run as he's athletic and mobile. Keeping him contained will be essential to creating negative plays defensively and avoiding first downs on quarterback scrambles.

Chiefs Defense:

Chiefs Nickel Secondary - Personnel: Once a desirable free agent cornerback, Dunta Robinson has been an obvious liability for the Chiefs in nickel defense. Either due to age or injuries, Robinson has looked completely sapped of explosiveness and speed. When the Chiefs' elite pass rush has failed to get pressure, Robinson has often been the target of exploitation. With Sean Smith and Brandon Flowers frequently providing quality cornerback on the outside, Robinson is the ideal defensive back to isolate in the passing game.

Where the Titans can win: Match-up Nate Washington and Kendall Wright in the slot against Dunta Robinson. There may be opportunities outside on occasion but the Titans would be wise to generate passing yardage underneath with Wright or vertically with Washington against Robinson. Wright in particular may be an ideal target for veteran Fitzpatrick. If the two can strike up any chemistry in game, we could see the two connecting frequently in the middle of the field and underneath coverage.

Chiefs Outside Linebackers - Run Defense Although the Chiefs have two premier pass rushing outside linebackers in Justin Houston and Tamba Hali, they can be exploited when teams run right at them on outside runs. The ability of Tackles and Tight Ends to create movement outside is a primary reason why the Chiefs are currently giving up 5.4 yards per attempt which is 2nd most in the league. The Chiefs run defense is stout up the middle of the field but considerably less so on the edge.

Where the Titans can win: Run a combination of outside zone and power plays off-tackle to get Chris Johnson outside. The Titans should consider pulling Warmack to break Chris Johnson free on the second level and they should also consider running out of 11 personnel against the Chiefs nickel defense. If they find success without a full-back they may be able to consistently generate explosive plays and place pressure on their safeties to tackle Johnson in the open field.

Despite the possibility of negative plays in the run game, the Titans need to stick with running the ball throughout the game. Offensively the Titans need to stay out of obvious passing situations and need to trust their defense against a conservative Chiefs offense. If they continue to run the ball the Titans are likely to break a big play free, possibly leading to Chris Johnson's first long touchdown of the season.

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[Cyrus]

Just want to add another note here - I was curious to see if there was any data to support my belief that the Chiefs can be run on off-tackle so I looked up some defensive line statistics on Football Outsiders.

 

-Kansas City is giving up 7.39 Adjusted Line Yards when teams run off the right tackle. That's 32nd - worst in the league. (Almost 1.6 ALY worse than the next team). They're 24th on the left tackle side (4.48 ALY). 

[JLocker10]

Just want to add another note here - I was curious to see if there was any data to support my belief that the Chiefs can be run on off-tackle so I looked up some defensive line statistics on Football Outsiders.

 

-Kansas City is giving up 7.39 Adjusted Line Yards when teams run off the right tackle. That's 32nd - worst in the league. (Almost 1.6 ALY worse than the next team). They're 24th on the left tackle side (4.48 ALY). 

hope to see levitre pulling a lot

Edited October 3, 2013 by JLocker10

[Number9]

Nice Article. @Cyrus I was thinking the same. This is going to be CJ vs JC. Battle can pound then some, but CJ is going to have to show up this game. I didn't know they were giving up so much yardage to the run outside. Fitz will need to move the chains and not look for the big play too often. I'm sure they will test KC deep a few times, but the Titans need to eat clock and keep Charles off the field. The Titans will have to keep pressure on Smith like you said. They are the best defense he's faced this season and it's at LP Field.

[WVTITAN]

I just don't see the Titans losing this game if they take care of the ball.  KC is limited om both sides of the ball. 

[Oiler FANatic]

Nice Article. @Cyrus I was thinking the same. This is going to be CJ vs JC.

CJ versus Jesus Christ? Let's not put that kind of pressure on him, I'll be happy to see him get 100 yards and maybe a TD to go with it.

[Frank Andbeans]

After watching the coaches tape for KC vs DAL, PHI, and NYG:

 

Andy Reid is running a highly designed offense.  What I mean by that is that each play is designed to target a specific thing in the defense.  Deep passes are determined pre-snap.  Smith has the freedom to identify blitzes and alter routes but there is typically no need since most plays are designed to end within a few seconds, targeting a specific area.

 

There are a ton of designed plays to stress the edge of the defense.  End-arounds are faked frequently.  There are very few basic run of the mill plays... everything has a little wrinkle.

 

Smith reads the middle of the field first on virtually every play.  He rarely gets past his first read.  Most passes are thrown under ten yards.  They use a ton of slants at different depths.  There are very little vertical stems.

 

Smith is frequently late on crossing routes.  His accuracy is really good on these but he leaves himself with a small window and his WR tackled immediately because he waits.

 

While almost everything goes to the first read, they fake the first read at times with Smith setting up for a quick throw before immediately going to a different spot.  In these instances, they usually threaten different levels of the defense rather than different sides of the field.

 

They often line Charles up at WR with an empty backfield to get the defense to declare its look.  Out of these formations they tend to send 2-3 receivers deep, clearing room for the real options underneath.  Smith running is one of the main threats of these formations.

 

Smith is looking to scramble/checkdown after his first read on nearly every play.  Charles gets a lot of use running routes - swing passes mostly but he does some variations.  His scrambles are very effective and I'm convinced he's being told by the coaching staff to use his running as more of a primary option rather than a last resort.  He is moving before he is pressured - looking to escape the pocket without being forced from it - and they are having success gaining chunks of yardage by doing this.

 

Dwayne Bowe is virtually wasted by this offense but he is still a dangerous physical threat that can break a tackle and create a big play.

 

The Titans defense can win this game on its own.  The chiefs do not have a good offense at all, even with Reid scheming the hell out it.  Spying Smith could be a legitimate strategy as I don't think they can move the ball consistently without his successful scrambles.  A spy also helps man coverage against all those in breaking routes.  Blurring the read presnap will be the easiest way to success.  Smith looks very limited post-snap.  The best defense they have faced is ranked 19th and they have yet to be forced to play catch up.  If the Titans can control the LOS, beating this passing should be easy.

 

If I were to make a gameplan against them it would involve a lot of blitzing out of cover 1 man.  I'd frequently keep a LB - Brown as much as possible for the speed, but Fokou works as well - to spy or delay blitz.  Their passing game plays right into Verner's strengths.  They flood zones with a lot of short routes so I think man is the better choice.  The only time I saw them attack downfield was when NYG sold out with 8 in the box to stop the run and played press man on the outside - leading to a presnap read that said to challenge the corner off play-action (Bowe's TD play).

 

The chiefs like to send their OLBs off the edges and delay blitz up the middle.  The pocket is rarely broken from the inside but rather, the edge rush makes the QB make his first move.  They like to stay in press man coverage as much as possible.  If we had Locker still, I'd say this is the perfect game to let Hunter loose early on a few go routes.  Because of this I think the shotgun draw could have a lot of success - it worked well for the Giants as they let the outside rush by while using a double to ensure a hole up the middle.

 

Their outside CBs are very good.  That, combined with the dropoff from Fitz's arm compared to Locker should mean that the Titans use less throws outside the numbers.  I don't think we can rely on outs, curls and comebacks like we have with Locker.  The CBs will have more time with the ball in the air.

[TeamRamrod]

Good work duders

[tinman]

Just want to add another note here - I was curious to see if there was any data to support my belief that the Chiefs can be run on off-tackle so I looked up some defensive line statistics on Football Outsiders.

 

-Kansas City is giving up 7.39 Adjusted Line Yards when teams run off the right tackle. That's 32nd - worst in the league. (Almost 1.6 ALY worse than the next team). They're 24th on the left tackle side (4.48 ALY). 

 

 

so we should be able to run on them.. This SHOULD/BETTER be CJs break out game.. If the man still has anything electric left in his tank we should see it this weekend.. 

 

 

I think this will be CJs best game of the year.. 

 

I am actually pretty shocked that the national media seems to really be liking the titans D and team in general.. EVEN with Fitz playing they are seeing us beating or giving KC hell.. 

Edited October 4, 2013 by tinman

[JLocker10]

After watching the coaches tape for KC vs DAL, PHI, and NYG:

 the JAX tape wasn't worth watching?

 

Edited October 4, 2013 by JLocker10

[Guest]

Is the Chiefs defense really that weak against the run? They struggled with McCoy in week 3 but other than that game, I feel they've been pretty solid.

[Jonboy]

Is the Chiefs defense really that weak against the run? They struggled with McCoy in week 3 but other than that game, I feel they've been pretty solid.

You would be correct. Dang it for bringing this up before the podcast was posted!!!

 

We talk about it on there. They really only had one bad game and that was against the Eagles. Vick also rushed for a lot in that game. Outside that, they haven't given up a run longer than 15 yards. 

[Cyrus]

Is the Chiefs defense really that weak against the run? They struggled with McCoy in week 3 but other than that game, I feel they've been pretty solid.

 

David Wilson had some good runs to the right side. The problem is that Gilbride is stubborn and he kept going to the pass game. The Cowboys had a few good runs to the left tackle, but Murray is a bit stiff and is more of an inside runner. I genuinely believe that you can run off tackle on them (similar to the Texans). 

 

As for the Chiefs offense as well, there's a lot of influence from Chris Ault. Smith is typically lined up in the shotgun with Charles lined up behind him. (Not generally pistol which is 3 yards). For this reason a lot of the Chiefs formations look very similar run or pass even if they run a lot of concepts out of it. The reality though is that they're tremendously limited with Smith under center because passing outside the numbers is incredibly rare for them. They've become very dependent on passing to Charles out of the back field .

[Pragidealist]

You would be correct. Dang it for bringing this up before the podcast was posted!!!

 

We talk about it on there. They really only had one bad game and that was against the Eagles. Vick also rushed for a lot in that game. Outside that, they haven't given up a run longer than 15 yards. 

 

Conspiracy!!! Someone was purposefully trying to set up CJ for another game to look bad in.  We hear all this messaging about how the Titans should be able to run on them and how this should be CJ's game and then BOOM!  The secret is they really aren't bad against the run.  Who do I blame for this?  Jamal, Oman, Cyrus!!!  They're all in on it!!!

 

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[Guest]

David Wilson had some good runs to the right side. The problem is that Gilbride is stubborn and he kept going to the pass game. The Cowboys had a few good runs to the left tackle, but Murray is a bit stiff and is more of an inside runner. I genuinely believe that you can run off tackle on them (similar to the Texans). 

 

As for the Chiefs offense as well, there's a lot of influence from Chris Ault. Smith is typically lined up in the shotgun with Charles lined up behind him. (Not generally pistol which is 3 yards). For this reason a lot of the Chiefs formations look very similar run or pass even if they run a lot of concepts out of it. The reality though is that they're tremendously limited with Smith under center because passing outside the numbers is incredibly rare for them. They've become very dependent on passing to Charles out of the back field .

 

I think you are over playing the issues with Smith's arm. You do not need a rocket to play in Reid's system although McNabb did have a really good arm. Garcia is a good example of a QB that had success in Reid's offense. Smith is playing well.