Thrill Posted September 23, 2022 Report Share Posted September 23, 2022 I decided to make this because I think an under talked about aspect of this season is that this is likely the final iteration of this core of players. We will probably look totally different next year top to bottom. So to start we need to know what the salary cap will be in 2023. Some estimates say it could be up to $230 million. Spottrac has it at $219 million. Current cap total going into 2023 without any cuts: 237 million. Leaving us between $7 million and $18 million over the cap. Large Dead Cap Hits Tannehill: 18.8 million Dupree: 20.2 million Byard: 13.6 million Hooker: 13.6 million Burks: 11.7 million Simmons: 10.7 million Henry: 9 million Julio Jones: 8.4 million Potential Cap Space Cuts (after subtracting dead cap and not including future dead caps in 2024 or 25) Lewan: Gain 14.8 million in cap space (no dead cap) Woods: Gain 13.7 million in cap space (no dead cap) Tannehill: Gain 17.8 million Bud Dupree: Gain 10 million Henry: Gain 6.6 million Cunningham: Gain 9.25 million Autrey: Gain 7.25 million Ben Jones: Gain 3.8 million Randy Bullock: Gain 2.1 Million I think obvious cuts or trades this offseason will be Lewan, Cunningham, and Bullock. Tannehill is also likely to be cut as well. However, I think with his cap number being more reasonable he may be a trade candidate. Woods and Henry will be cut if they continue to look as they currently do. Autrey and Ben Jones are interesting since they're both clearly still solid. If we're moving towards a new era and getting younger and faster we may see them both cut just to create cap room and move forward. Bud Dupree likely won't get cut because he's still got a pretty hefty dead cap number in 2023 (EDIT: Bud's dead cap is pretty small in 2024 and 2025 so he's actually not too tough of a cut either). But if he continues to get injured and underwhelm we may cut bait on him as well. Assuming we cut Lewan, Cunningham, and Bullock that would bring our guaranteed cap to $210 million which would give us somewhere between $9 and $20 million in cap room. Letting Henry, Woods, and Tannehill go as well would get us down to $172.75 and leaving us with somewhere between $47 and $58 million to play around with. I think there's a heavy likelihood all of those guys are gone after this season (not including Autrey, Jones, and Dupree), especially if we end up with a losing record. If Autrey and Jones are clearly slowing down we may get up between $58 and $69 million in cap space. Either way we're going to see some big changes this offseason and likely have a lot of money to spend. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanskick8851 Posted September 23, 2022 Report Share Posted September 23, 2022 Yep, 100% believe it will be a total re-build at this point. Which might be better. Robinson's vision building a team from nothing was better than how we went about keeping them a contender. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanskick8851 Posted September 23, 2022 Report Share Posted September 23, 2022 Next season might not be a lot of fun, BUT the off-season will be great for discussion, what if's, etc. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaTitan Posted September 23, 2022 Report Share Posted September 23, 2022 Damn we're gonna bring back the Oiler unis just in time! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanskick8851 Posted September 23, 2022 Report Share Posted September 23, 2022 Also worth noting that next year the following players are unrestricted free agents: RG Nate Davis LB David Long RB Dontrell Hilliard TE Austin Hooper TE Geoff Swaim OL Dennis daley CB Ugo Amadi DL Kevin Strong DL DeMarcus Walker EDGE Ola Adeniyi DB Joshua Kalu LS Morgan Cox DB Lonnie Johnson Jr. LB Dylan Cole iOL Corey Levine LB Joe Jones DL Da'Shawn Hand DB Andrew Adams CB Terrance Mitchell S A.J. Moore The following at RFA/ERFA and may or may not be back: iOL Aaron Brewer (RFA) WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (RFA) DL Teair Tart (RFA) EDGE Derreck Tuszka (RFA) TE Kevin Rader (RFA) DL Naquan Jones (ERFA) FB Tory Carter (ERFA) TE Tommy Hudson (ERFA) WR Cody Hollister (ERFA) So good chance, not including the potential larger cuts, they are going to have to fill 25+ roster spots. Next year is going to look extremely different from a roster layout standpoint. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
BudsOilers Posted September 23, 2022 Report Share Posted September 23, 2022 9 minutes ago, titanskick8851 said: Yep, 100% believe it will be a total re-build at this point. Which might be better. Robinson's vision building a team from nothing was better than how we went about keeping them a contender. Building from nothing with a ton of cap space and high picks is pretty easy. It's navigating through maintaining a playoff contending roster annually without those things that's more difficult. The margin for error is infinitely smaller. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctm Posted September 23, 2022 Report Share Posted September 23, 2022 I looked at spotrac and over the cap earlier today. Lots of variables still in play so the best you can do is get a ball park number. I see it at about 20M over for 51 guys plus you eventually have to add in the cost of the top 2 draft picks to make 53, then the practice squad and IR money. But that is as of today. Very possible they will have to make another cap move before this season is over and that would push more money into 2023 and beyond. I won't even speculate on who gets cut, depends a lot on the rest of the season. But there are only about a handful of spots where there are enough savings to make up this kind of deficit to get back to zero balance, much less add an expensive player(s) in free agency. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleepingTitan Posted September 23, 2022 Report Share Posted September 23, 2022 Large Dead Cap Hits Tannehill: 18.8 million Dupree: 20.2 million Byard: 13.6 million Hooker: 13.6 million Burks: 11.7 million Simmons: 10.7 million Henry: 9 million Julio Jones: 8.4 million Potential Cap Space Cuts (after subtracting dead cap and not including future dead caps in 2024 or 25) Lewan: Gain 14.8 million in cap space (no dead cap) Woods: Gain 13.7 million in cap space (no dead cap) Tannehill: Gain 17.8 million Bud Dupree: Gain 10 million Henry: Gain 6.6 million Cunningham: Gain 9.25 million Autrey: Gain 7.25 million Ben Jones: Gain 3.8 million Randy Bullock: Gain 2.1 Million Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
tgo Posted September 23, 2022 Report Share Posted September 23, 2022 The future is a chaotic and unknown place. Winter is coming. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
2ToneTerror Posted September 23, 2022 Report Share Posted September 23, 2022 I believe Dupree’s hit after this year is minimal. He would have to play out of his mind to be retained…and he’s already missing games due to injury. Fuck those babies. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrill Posted September 23, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, titanskick8851 said: Yep, 100% believe it will be a total re-build at this point. Which might be better. Robinson's vision building a team from nothing was better than how we went about keeping them a contender. Yup he built a contender with Lewan, Casey, and Mariota, and a #1 pick. He'll have at least that much to work with after tearing this roster apart. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrill Posted September 23, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, 2ToneTerror said: I believe Dupree’s hit after this year is minimal. He would have to play out of his mind to be retained…and he’s already missing games due to injury. Fuck those babies. You're right. He only has 9 million combined dead cap for 2024 and 2025 combined. He's probably gone too barring a complete turnaround. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
BudsOilers Posted September 23, 2022 Report Share Posted September 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, Thrill said: Yup he built a contender with Lewan, Casey, and Mariota, and a #1 pick. He'll have at least that much to work with after tearing this roster apart. No he won't. Not the picks or the cap space and if they clear out all of the high contracts, he'd have to get a QB (I assume they won't turn to Willis for 2023), a new RB, and entire new OL, edge guys, LB's, and perhaps more CB's. What people don't want to admit is that he royally fucked up the "maintain the contending roster" because he's far to hit or miss and at times reckless (see the Julio trade or the Bud contract)....The absolute botching of some drafts - 2018, 2020, and 2021 look really bad aside from Landry and Fulton is really hurting now. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Starkiller Posted September 23, 2022 Report Share Posted September 23, 2022 They are in prime position to blow the whole team up if things don’t turn around in a major way. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamalisms Posted September 23, 2022 Report Share Posted September 23, 2022 6 minutes ago, BudsOilers said: What people don't want to admit is that he royally fucked up the "maintain the contending roster" because he's far to hit or miss and at times reckless (see the Julio trade or the Bud contract)....The absolute botching of some drafts - 2018, 2020, and 2021 look really bad aside from Landry and Fulton is really hurting now. All else aside, even just maintaining the OL - where he spent a good bit of resources - would have kept them pretty competitive. But he failed there more than anywhere else. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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