Tracking Offensive Fallout - Week 15

[oldschool]

1 minute ago, ctm said:

 

As I've said in other posts, there is a real question whether this team has plateaued as a good team but not a championship level team.  The closest they got was the AFCCG against the Chiefs where the score was 35-17 midway through the 4th Q.

 

Following the 2018 season, the front office said the team needed to find a way to go from good to great.  That was almost 3 seasons ago and they clearly haven't done that.

 

You can already see it in posts over the last 18 hours. Just get Henry and Brown back and everything will be fine.

[ctm]

1 minute ago, oldschool said:

 

You can already see it in posts over the last 18 hours. Just get Henry and Brown back and everything will be fine.

 

I tend to take a macro rather than a micro look.  Focus on the team accomplishments to measure results, not individual players or games.

 

JRob has been here almost 6 complete seasons.  The team has won 3 playoff games plus whatever they win this year.  Is that good enough?

[oldschool]

1 minute ago, ctm said:

 

I tend to take a macro rather than a micro look.  Focus on the team accomplishments to measure results, not individual players or games.

 

JRob has been here almost 6 complete seasons.  The team has won 3 playoff games plus whatever they win this year.  Is that good enough?

 

We know the answer and its of course not. Right now 2019 is an anomaly.

[Jamalisms]

3 hours ago, IrishTitansFan said:

It was something I read at the beginning of the year. The tweet was actually that Mariota had better conversion % when passing on 3rd down, not passer rating

 

Ryan

36 of 79 third downs converted passing the ball in 2019.

 

Marcus

15 of 48 third downs converted passing the ball in 2019.

[TF_Titan]

5 hours ago, OILERMAN said:

 

So NWI catches the wide open 40yder off of playaction if Henry is in the backfield?

 

Not to mention the Firkser fumble, which Henry would have also prevented. Hell, Brewer probably blocks better and they hit a wide open Julio on the first play too.

[IrishTitansFan]

12 minutes ago, Jamalisms said:

 

Ryan

36 of 79 third downs converted passing the ball in 2019.

 

Marcus

15 of 48 third downs converted passing the ball in 2019.

It was over Mariotas career

 

Im going to continue to look like an idiot if I can’t find the tweet lol but it was surprising 

 

Tannehill got sacked a lot in 2019 and in 2020 his QBR was way down on 3rd down

 

The problem for Mariota was he sucked, the problem for Tannehill in passing situations since he took over is the Titans have had terrible protection and his weapons have let him down.

 

In 2020 Tannehills receivers dropped the ball at a top 5 rate on 3rd down

 

The issues on 3rd down haven’t really changed, what has changed is the lack of explosive plays and a lot more turnovers

[TF_Titan]

5 hours ago, oldschool said:

 

No QB can overcome this combo.

 

An elite QB like Tom Brady could.

[big2033]

2 hours ago, Jamalisms said:

He was sacked about a billion times in 2019, by the way, and his passer rating was 30 to 40 points higher. I'm sure it's everyone else's fault and that he plays no role in this.

 

The more you think it's entirely reliant on others, the more you argue he's just along for the ride and the worse you think he is, but I'm sure there's some mental gymnastics out there to rationalize all of it.

 

This. 

[oldschool]

 

 

 

 

[Jamalisms]

They're worse with all three! They need less talent!

 

Why? Because that's mixing years and offensive coordinators and it's just a bad comparison overall.

[oldschool]

6 minutes ago, Jamalisms said:

They're worse with all three! They need less talent!

 

Why? Because that's mixing years and offensive coordinators and it's just a bad comparison overall.

 

break out your spreadsheet and let us know what the real numbers are this year! 

 

Only half kidding. I found this tweet interesting but I wouldn't die on a hill defending what it claims to say.

[Jamalisms]

3 minutes ago, oldschool said:

 

break out your spreadsheet and let us know what the real numbers are this year! 

 

Only half kidding. I found this tweet interesting but I wouldn't die on a hill defending what it claims to say.

 

I was thinking about running it with Julio and AJ but the problem is that I'd either do it the easy and less useful way and include games where they played versus didn't play or I'd have to really try and dig in and figure out when did they get injured in each of those games and ... that's a lot more work.

[big2033]

16 minutes ago, oldschool said:

 

 

 

 

 

With Mariota and Henry in 2018: 19.4 points per game. And Mariota is probably a third-string QB. 

 

Tannehill is Tannehill.

 

But you thinking he's more than that is the problem. 

 

He needs players and a dominant run game to elevate him. And it's being proven every week.

 

Henry is our MVP. And you're seeing it on the field. 

 

When AJ Brown returns, he'll have to carry our offense.

[BudsOilers]

That Herndon tweet is from just 2021.  Of course the sample sizes are small but make sense.

 

With all 3 - AZ, SEA, BUF. KC (26.8 - note week 1 of 13; other 3 - 31.3)

With Henry and AJB - JAX game 1, IND game 2 (35.5)

With Henry and JJ - IND game 1 (25 - note Brown left right away)

With just AJB and JJ - LAR (28)

With just Henry - NYJ (24)

With just AJB - NO, HOU (Brown left early 3rd) (18.5)

With just JJ - JAX game 2, PIT (16.5 - Jones on limited snaps, missed 2nd half)

With none of them - NE (13)

 

The drop in the offense coincided with the WR injuries, which only exposed the pass protection even more than normal and forced back end/street players to be the main skill weapons.  Anyone claiming otherwise is an idiot.  Just look at last night's NO/TB game for those who don't think receivers or pass protection is important in the passing game and completely unrelated to the quality of the QB or who plays RB.

[IowaOiler]

I think with Henry, defenses think there are far fewer 'pass only' downs.  With Henry, a 3rd and 5 isn't necessarily a pass only down...it is now that he's out. 

 

This team is one and done in the playoffs (if they make them), and I don't think there is a team that might squeak in that we would be able to beat unless Henry is back. 

 

The crazy thing will be when they extend Vrabel in the offseason.  We fire MM for running too conservative of an offense with a 3rd string QB, and after winning a playoff game at Arrowhead.  We'll extend Vrabel after running a MORE conservative offense with a top tier QB, and two one-and-dones in the playoffs.  It will prove that this franchise views the playoffs as the goal, rather than a championship...despite the BS they were spewing about Mularkey.