Iran

[IsntLifeFunny]

1 hour ago, ctm said:

 

The dumbest motherfucker in history...wait, that would be his followers. The dumbest leader in history. 

[ctm]

1 minute ago, IsntLifeFunny said:

The dumbest motherfucker in history...wait, that would be his followers. The dumbest leader in history. 

 The reports I've read say that the revolutionary guard now in charge are even more hardline than the previous group.

[IsntLifeFunny]

3 minutes ago, ctm said:

 The reports I've read say that the revolutionary guard now in charge are even more hardline than the previous group.

 

[Jamalisms]

[tgo]

 

[nine]

Last June when Israel started bombing Iran and taking out Iranian air defenses....geopolitical analyst Peter Zeihan offered a quick overview and explanation of the whole Israel vs. Iran situation, including how Iranian government works and the potential for regime change....and why it's unlikely that external influences (i.e. Israel or US) would be able to drive significant changes in Iran.

A short excerpt from Zeihan's  comments...keeping in mind, this was from June 2025.  We're talking 8-9 months ago, long before Trump started making noise about Iran.   

 

If you want to talk about regime change, you now have to shift to a different sort of conversation. Yes, Iran is a deeply authoritarian system, but it is not a dictatorship. It is not a one man rule. This is not Putin’s Russia. This is not Xi’s China. 

This is something else. This is a theocracy. So even if the Grand Ayatollah who’s in charge of everything right now, were to kick it tomorrow either because he’s older than dust or because a bomb drops on his head that doesn’t remove the regime. There are over 15,000 mullahs that are part of the ruling class.

 

And while regime change certainly could lead to a period of instability, it doesn’t fundamentally change what Iran is. And what Iran is, is Persia. Iran is a bunch of mountains. It’s not a chunk of plains like Mesopotamia. It’s not a single seaside community like Israel. It’s about 80 million people who live in mountains. 

 

Some version of Persia has existed almost since the beginning of the human story. It is one of the original civilizations of our species. And yes, the government has fallen from time to time, but really, in 6000 years we’ve only had seven regime changes that are worthy of the term.    We’re not going to see one this year. And the United States lacks the capacity to force that issue, even if it does get involved. 

 

But then what? Iran is still Iran. Persia is still Persia. The United States can’t send in a military force on the ground to clean up the entire clerical class. No. If there is going to be a meaningful regime change, if Iran is going to enter a fundamentally different governing age, it’s going to have to be a revolution. And you don’t sponsor a revolution with bombs dropped from the air. 

 

Here's a link to Zeihan's  full segment in its entirety:

 

https://zeihan.com/israels-uncertain-endgame-in-iran/#transcript