Justafan Posted January 6, 2018 Report Share Posted January 6, 2018 I have a feeling that Henry is going to feast today. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE_TITAN Posted January 6, 2018 Report Share Posted January 6, 2018 I'd say we have a 20% chance of winning today. Chiefs have a better team and home advantage. Will have to be an ugly game for us to prevail. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Titans279 Posted January 6, 2018 Report Share Posted January 6, 2018 Interesting breakdown. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/game-previews/2018/afc-wild-card-playoff-preview-2018 Some highlights... Quote DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry split carries evenly, but the duo combined for 81 rushing DYAR. San Francisco's rookie backup Matt Breida had 79 DYAR himself this year. A big boost in the numbers for Tennessee is that Mariota had 131 rushing DYAR, the third most for a quarterback in 2017. If you factor out quarterback rushing in the numbers for all teams, then the Titans fall from 8th in DVOA to 16th. Quote However, Henry's overall rushing numbers are a bit misleading this year. He had a 72-yard touchdown run against the Colts (Week 6) and a 75-yard touchdown run against the Texans (Week 13). Those two plays alone account for 52 of Henry's 54 rushing DYAR this season. That's not to say we should just remove big plays, but these are not your typical big plays. Both were runs on third-and-5 in the final minute of the game where Henry could have just fallen down after the first-down marker to end the game. Instead, he helped the Titans cover the spread twice and scored two of the most irrelevant long touchdowns in the last couple of decades. Quote This is a matchup that should be tailor-made for Smith. Dick LeBeau's defense ranks third against deep passes, but 32nd against short passes. That's the old "tackle the catch" philosophy, but the Titans also rank 24th in DVOA against tight ends (lowest in the whole playoff field) and 32nd against receiving backs. Hunt has had a pretty solid year in that department too, with 53 catches on 63 targets, and he leads the NFL with 89 broken tackles according to Sports Info Solutions. Tackling these talented receivers can be difficult. The Chiefs forced a missed tackle on 13.3 percent of their plays, the second-highest rate in the league according to Sports Info Solutions. Even Alex Smith forced 29 missed tackles, second to only Cam Newton(35) among quarterbacks. Tennessee's defense only missed a tackle on 9.0 percent of plays, the fifth-lowest rate in the league, so this will be a good matchup to watch. Quote Tennessee's defense faced the weakest set of offenses by DVOA this year. Simply put, good quarterbacks produce against this Tennessee defense this season, and Smith is enjoying his finest season yet. Let this one serve as a learning experience for the Titans. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldschool Posted January 6, 2018 Report Share Posted January 6, 2018 2 hours ago, Titans279 said: I hate stats like this. They pop with the masses but if you dig into them they usually fall apart quickly. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Titans279 Posted January 6, 2018 Report Share Posted January 6, 2018 11 minutes ago, oldschool said: I hate stats like this. They pop with the masses but if you dig into them they usually fall apart quickly. They are pretty misleading. It's similar to the one about the Titans being 8-0 when Henry gets more than 10 carries in a game. Correlation doesn't necessarily imply causation! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Titans279 Posted January 6, 2018 Report Share Posted January 6, 2018 I didn't realize Mariota's PFF score was actually pretty good for the year. 83.6 pretty good, isn't it? Makes it an outlier among ratings. In theory that should be a good sign since they claim to go off the tape... in theory! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stan Posted January 6, 2018 Report Share Posted January 6, 2018 I checked the games of all the first wildcard games and it’s been pretty clear home teams win most of these earlier games. Everything and anything is pointing to a loss. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilkhmerkid4u Posted January 6, 2018 Report Share Posted January 6, 2018 LET'S GO FIELD GOAL UNIT!! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
AussieTitanFan08 Posted January 6, 2018 Report Share Posted January 6, 2018 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheChosenTitan Posted January 6, 2018 Report Share Posted January 6, 2018 Derrick Henry gonna be running mean today boi Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
enigma Posted January 6, 2018 Report Share Posted January 6, 2018 I hope Henry "runs mean" but personally...I doubt it. Also, I think it's quite possible that the Titans fall behind early which will force them to abandon the run altogether... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
.jpeg.8ffa0b6f2963bb1629ffa68f0564f731.thumb.jpeg.2bd8dacec248d13c93b239653ca8bee3.jpeg)
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.