Starkiller Posted April 1, 2020 Report Share Posted April 1, 2020 43 minutes ago, Mythos27 said: How long would you suggest I hold off before diving in? A month or two? Just have to wait and see how long this mess lasts. Unemployment will keep going up. The death count will rise. Mortgages and rents will go unpaid. Mythos27 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
abenjami Posted April 1, 2020 Author Report Share Posted April 1, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, Mythos27 said: How long would you suggest I hold off before diving in? A month or two? In general I agree with @Starkiller in that you can't really put a time line on it right now and will need to watch what happens and how fast. As far as when to jump in, what is your goal and will you be doing this in a taxable account or a tax-deferred account like an IRA? Edited April 1, 2020 by abenjami Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OILERMAN Posted April 1, 2020 Report Share Posted April 1, 2020 2 hours ago, Mythos27 said: How long would you suggest I hold off before diving in? A month or two? Are you only investing the stimulus check or are you going to put more in and are you going to invest a set amount regularly? If you plan on leaving the money in the market multiple years I wouldn't wait, I'd do it ASAP. You could split it up and put it in 3 separate times every 2 weeks for the next 6 weeks as well. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Downtown Posted April 1, 2020 Report Share Posted April 1, 2020 2 hours ago, Mythos27 said: How long would you suggest I hold off before diving in? A month or two? One month. I will add the below is purely an opinion based off of historical models: The curve of epidemics suggests we are past the B wave and headed into the C crash. Historically this plunge will go past the A plunge by 10-20%. That would put the bottom at around Dow 16k. If you have cash, put it in at anything below 19k Dow. I would guess we flirt with sub 19k next week. ChemEngr79, Mythos27, and abenjami 3 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OilerTitanHybrid Posted April 2, 2020 Report Share Posted April 2, 2020 (edited) The curve of epidemics also suggested that the market would go up 50% off the last bottom, before it went back down. Didn't happen though, It's all speculation now anyway. Just gotta wait it out and see if the last bottom holds. Looking on the chart, last week's run up was a pretty good looking weekly candle. I'd say the market would have to close past halfway down that weekly candle this week, to really maker me think it will threaten the last bottom. Certainly possible though! If it does go down and break the last low, I'd be looking for SPX 2085 and DOW 17888. Gotta see if SPX 2400 or so holds this week. Edited April 2, 2020 by OilerTitanHybrid OILERMAN 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
abenjami Posted April 2, 2020 Author Report Share Posted April 2, 2020 1 hour ago, OilerTitanHybrid said: The curve of epidemics also suggested that the market would go up 50% off the last bottom, before it went back down. Didn't happen though, It's all speculation now anyway. Just gotta wait it out and see if the last bottom holds. Looking on the chart, last week's run up was a pretty good looking weekly candle. I'd say the market would have to close past halfway down that weekly candle this week, to really maker me think it will threaten the last bottom. Certainly possible though! If it does go down and break the last low, I'd be looking for SPX 2085 and DOW 17888. Gotta see if SPX 2400 or so holds this week. Last week's candle topped out at 22.5 on Thursday. Didn't even make it through the entire week. Today closed at 21.9. Closing "past halfway down that weekly candle" from last week isn't far away and it's only Wednesday. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
abenjami Posted April 2, 2020 Author Report Share Posted April 2, 2020 BTW futures are slightly up right now. Very slightly up. My guess is that's mostly a double-sided hedge bet. Some people are selling futures at this level because they think the market will fall further, while others are buying futures at this level in case it rebounds but they aren't actually buying stocks tomorrow. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
abenjami Posted April 2, 2020 Author Report Share Posted April 2, 2020 I meant to say tremendously slightly up. Tremendously slightly! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OILERMAN Posted April 2, 2020 Report Share Posted April 2, 2020 Dow futures 412 and rising but that means nothing Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mythos27 Posted April 2, 2020 Report Share Posted April 2, 2020 11 hours ago, abenjami said: In general I agree with @Starkiller in that you can't really put a time line on it right now and will need to watch what happens and how fast. As far as when to jump in, what is your goal and will you be doing this in a taxable account or a tax-deferred account like an IRA? Generally I'm planning on playing the long game and preparing for retirement. I'm leaning towards a tax-deferred account but honestly I have to look into it a bit more before I make a decision. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mythos27 Posted April 2, 2020 Report Share Posted April 2, 2020 11 hours ago, OILERMAN said: Are you only investing the stimulus check or are you going to put more in and are you going to invest a set amount regularly? If you plan on leaving the money in the market multiple years I wouldn't wait, I'd do it ASAP. You could split it up and put it in 3 separate times every 2 weeks for the next 6 weeks as well. The stimulus check is the just the starting point. I plan on putting in as much disposable income as I can on a monthly or at least bi-monthly basis. OilerTitanHybrid 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OILERMAN Posted April 2, 2020 Report Share Posted April 2, 2020 4 minutes ago, Mythos27 said: The stimulus check is the just the starting point. I plan on putting in as much disposable income as I can on a monthly or at least bi-monthly basis. Honestly the best course is just to invest it ASAP then start putting in regular contributions and do not worry about the ups and downs. No one knows what the market is going to do on a short term basis. The money isn't arriving for a few more weeks anyway so you'll be seeing what's happening up until then anyway Mythos27, and OilerTitanHybrid 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mythos27 Posted April 2, 2020 Report Share Posted April 2, 2020 11 hours ago, Downtown said: One month. I will add the below is purely an opinion based off of historical models: The curve of epidemics suggests we are past the B wave and headed into the C crash. Historically this plunge will go past the A plunge by 10-20%. That would put the bottom at around Dow 16k. If you have cash, put it in at anything below 19k Dow. I would guess we flirt with sub 19k next week. I think this is the way I'm gonna go. Index funds are another instrument aside from ETFs that I'm looking at and I definitely want to buy as low as I can but that want to mess around and wait too long. That said, I've heard that trying to time the bottom (and the market in general) is a fool's errand so something like what Oilerman suggested makes sense to me. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mythos27 Posted April 2, 2020 Report Share Posted April 2, 2020 1 minute ago, OILERMAN said: Honestly the best course is just to invest it ASAP then start putting in regular contributions and do not worry about the ups and downs. No one knows what the market is going to do on a short term basis. The money isn't arriving for a few more weeks anyway so you'll be seeing what's happening up until then anyway I've got some disposable income right now that I could start up with but given the general uncertainty of the moment we're in, holding on to some cash gives me a sense of security. I think I will buy in incrementally over a few weeks as you suggested once I start though. OILERMAN 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OILERMAN Posted April 2, 2020 Report Share Posted April 2, 2020 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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