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abenjami

I'm going to liquidate my portfolio

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4 minutes ago, WVTITAN said:

Option 2 doesn't account for the down time waiting for 17k to happen.

Assume it's absolutely net zero. Option 1 never pulled out so the up and down didn't matter. You lose with Option 1 if the market drops below where he sold (if he gets back in).

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OILERMAN   
1 hour ago, Jamalisms said:

 if the market drops below where he sold (if he gets back in).

This sounds great but over time buy and hold beats market timing the longer the time frame and after only 10 years or so is close to 100% of the time. No one gets out and back in at the right time.... and if you luck out and do it once you're doomed.

If someone got out of the market the day before the Brexit vote it would have been perfect. But if they stayed out more than a week or so they lost anyway and if they were still out they lost big even though they nailed the exit.

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abenjami   

This isn't about lucking out and timing the market.  This is about trusting the history of the market.  When it reaches a high, it always goes back down at some point before rebounding to a new high.

Sell at the high, wait for the fall, buy back in.  It's fairly simple as long as you don't get greedy and try to time it perfectly.

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abenjami   
7 minutes ago, Jamalisms said:

But how do you recognize near the high any better than at the high?

It's at the high right now.  Historically, the market has never been higher (within a few points).

In this strategy, near the high is the same thing as at the high.  It doesn't matter because I'm not trying to pinpoint or time the high.

Think of it more like a staircase.  We are on the top step right now.  I'm not sure exactly where on the top step, but we are there.

History says we will keep building more steps up, but at some point soon we will take a step or 4 back.

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OILERMAN   

The market has been rising for 6 or 7 years now and beating highs along the way.....

I heard a podcast a while back, in 1930 the dow was at 14 points(off memory), if you got out of the market and was waiting for the dow to get back down to 14 you're still waiting

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abenjami   
3 minutes ago, OILERMAN said:

The market has been rising for 6 or 7 years now and beating highs along the way.....

I heard a podcast a while back, in 1930 the dow was at 14 points(off memory), if you got out of the market and was waiting for the dow to get back down to 14 you're still waiting

Except of course for when it has dipped quite a few times along the way after reaching new highs during the past 6-7 years.

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OILERMAN   
1 minute ago, abenjami said:

Except of course for when it has dipped quite a few times along the way after reaching new highs during the past 6-7 years.

Yea and show me someone who got in and out correctly during those dips?

I follow a page that suggested getting out march 6th for all the same reasons you listed, since then I've made 13.13%

BTW, poker and investing, I'm in heaven!

 

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abenjami   

The market was not at an all time high on March 6th.  It was still rebounding from the fallout at the beginning of the year.

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OILERMAN   
2 minutes ago, abenjami said:

The market was not at an all time high on March 6th.  It was still rebounding from the fallout at the beginning of the year.

Yea but the 50 day and 200 day moving average blah blah blah......

I hope you're right and the market tanks and I start getting cheaper shares

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abenjami   
Just now, OILERMAN said:

Yea but the 50 day and 200 day moving average blah blah blah......

I hope you're right and the market tanks and I start getting cheaper shares

Yes but i'm not talking about the ___ day moving averages or any blah blah blah.  This is a very simplistic strategy.

I have no doubt it will fall below where it is today.  The real question is at what price point do I buy back in.

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OILERMAN   
5 minutes ago, abenjami said:

Yes but i'm not talking about the ___ day moving averages or any blah blah blah.  This is a very simplistic strategy.

I have no doubt it will fall below where it is today.  The real question is at what price point do I buy back in.

I understand what you're saying

But you don't know if it will fall below where it is, which I think it will but don't know.

If it was so simple people wouldn't routinely fail trying it

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32 minutes ago, abenjami said:

It's at the high right now.  Historically, the market has never been higher (within a few points).

In this strategy, near the high is the same thing as at the high.  It doesn't matter because I'm not trying to pinpoint or time the high.

Think of it more like a staircase.  We are on the top step right now.  I'm not sure exactly where on the top step, but we are there.

History says we will keep building more steps up, but at some point soon we will take a step or 4 back.

When we hit a new high, how often has gone X, Y and Z % above that high before falling? Has it always gone back below the previous high or has it merely fallen back some from whatever it is when it starts the fall?

Less looking for specific answers and more speaking out of my ass to suggest that these questions matter and may indicate that your strategy isn't quite so guaranteed if you researched and got the specific answers.

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