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abenjami

I'm going to liquidate my portfolio

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I sold a big portion of my positions a few days after Brexit.  I am going to try to wait until Nov-Jan to put money back, if then.  Bulls make money.  Bears make money.  Pigs get slaughtered.  So they say, until you sell for profits and take money off the table.  I would not sell everything.  But repositioning is not bad and I don't think I have to reposition right away.  It looks like the market is solid in thinking Hillary will win and the markets do better under dems.  But who knows and the world climate is just to volatile for me to expect the run to continue up, not so fast that I lose a lot of money.  Plus, I didn't sell every thing, I'm still in.

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43 minutes ago, siamesedinasour said:

Do you buy or sell options?

Let me add to my own question... You need to know how options work before investing in them. You could even use options to hedge your bet should you guess incorrectly. But, if you expect a market downturn, options would maximize your profit much more than simply "liquidating" your portfolio. 

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1 hour ago, Number9 said:

I sold a big portion of my positions a few days after Brexit.  

Yikes, then you sold after big losses and missed a great run after those few days

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18 minutes ago, OILERMAN said:

Yikes, then you sold after big losses and missed a great run after those few days

Yeah, this is the opposite strategy.

I was at a dinner party the weekend after Brexit occurred and there was some discussion about the market.  One of the women there is a financial advisor and she was spouting off about how Brexit was going to be a serious setback for the US markets.  I laughed and told her to call me in a couple of months when the dip was over and the market was higher than before Brexit.

This is also like the thread we had on this board back in December or January.  A bunch of posters were panicked about the market for no good reason.

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36 minutes ago, abenjami said:

I laughed and told her to call me in a couple of months when the dip was over and the market was higher than before Brexit.

Same-ish thing happened with my mom. She told me that just because I have a personal interest in a company not to invest heavily just because I like the products. I just told her that industries I follow are the only way to do it because you actually have insight on when to jump in and out.

The only two individual stocks I have that she said that about were NVDA and AMD. I got NVDA almost 3 months ago at $34 (now $55) and AMD was at $3.50 (jumped up 30% in the past 2 days to hover around $7 currently)

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13 minutes ago, wiscotitansfan said:

Same-ish thing happened with my mom. She told me that just because I have a personal interest in a company not to invest heavily just because I like the products. I just told her that industries I follow are the only way to do it because you actually have insight on when to jump in and out.

The only two individual stocks I have that she said that about were NVDA and AMD. I got NVDA almost 3 months ago at $34 (now $55) and AMD was at $3.50 (jumped up 30% in the past 2 days to hover around $7 currently)

The problem with this rationale is people like you and me don't really have insight into short term stock movements of individual compenies.  By the time we get whatever information leads us to make a decision like that, the stock price already reflects that information the vast majority of the time.

Insight like that is mostly useful when deciding between individual companies in a market sector.  For example, you might think AMD chips are improving a lot faster than Intel chips so you buy AMD over Intel, etc.

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1 hour ago, OILERMAN said:

Yikes, then you sold after big losses and missed a great run after those few days

I did not sell until it was back to pre-Brexit.  I missed some upside afterwards, but I also was in because I still held most every thing.  Some of what I sold did not fare so well.  I trimmed my Apple position, but no Facebook.  I did not sell ATT.  HD.  I completely sold others and some I did not touch.  I hold a managed portfolio and I had him sell as well.  I am remodeling a rental to offset gains.

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12 minutes ago, abenjami said:

The problem with this rationale is people like you and me don't really have insight into short term stock movements of individual compenies.  By the time we get whatever information leads us to make a decision like that, the stock price already reflects that information the vast majority of the time.

Insight like that is mostly useful when deciding between individual companies in a market sector.  For example, you might think AMD chips are improving a lot faster than Intel chips so you buy AMD over Intel, etc.

For sure, No disagreement there. It's def one of the reasons why I believe in both companies instead of viewing them as competition. I think the whole industry will grow greatly overtime, but just the fact that I got extremely lucky with the timing (at least NVDA specifically, it jumped huge overnight a day or two after I first got in) is in my opinion somewhat correlated with the fact that I knew those companies were introducing game changing products into that market, similar to apple producing the ipod.

It's a small portion of my portfolio but luckily those jumps have been enough to give the whole thing a bump with most of the rest of my money going into larger funds.

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Almost got into Nvidia at $20 and passed. Two good quarters and a lot of hype over self-driving cars sent it skyrocketing. Certainly over valued now, but maybe it will grow into it in several years. I'm guessing AMD is riding their coattails because their quarterlies were ugly and their conference calls were depressing about a year ago.

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47 minutes ago, wiscotitansfan said:

Same-ish thing happened with my mom. She told me that just because I have a personal interest in a company not to invest heavily just because I like the products. I just told her that industries I follow are the only way to do it because you actually have insight on when to jump in and out.

The only two individual stocks I have that she said that about were NVDA and AMD. I got NVDA almost 3 months ago at $34 (now $55) and AMD was at $3.50 (jumped up 30% in the past 2 days to hover around $7 currently)

I wrote and cashed in a lot of puts on Nvidia the past few years.  Was actually hoping to pick up the stock on a downturn, but it never really did.  Was very curious a long while back how they might benefit from the VR movement, but thinking now that it is a long way off to never in terms of significant market impact; i.e., VR will never be the next smartphone. 

 

Great reports on their 1000 series of GPUs though.

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I think it's the "deep learning", rather than VR that has changed the sentiment for Nvidia although long-term VR may be the primary source of revenue for graphics chips. I think part of the catalyst is Tesla auto-pilot which made some feel like self-driving is closer than previously anticipated. On a macro level, internet of things and smart-connected cars has been an understated area of growth in the United States.

Never saw a good entry point myself. I think the P/E was hovering around 19 when I was last considering it. (around $20~). Deep learning seemed like distant opportunity, along with VR while they were doing business as usual. (along with potential pressure from lower desktop sales, their questionable gaming platform and the like).

The market will pay for potential gains though and it picked up a lot of momentum. A good lesson, I think. My original assessment wasn't wrong, but other investors may be more willing to jump in sooner than I would.

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4 minutes ago, chef said:

Great reports on their 1000 series of GPUs though.

Agree, that was my reference to the ipod.

VR should be cool but yeah, don't see it completely dominating any market. I have actually sold Nvidia once it skyrocketed and was content with what I made (essentially paid for my 1080s I just bought recently). I am keeping AMD though because it is low enough and imo has too much potential since a lot of big companies use their GPUs because the price point and the low power consumption, essentially making it impossible for me to lose enough money for me to get upset about. I'm sure I will get burned eventually but this one is "for fun" almost and just having a specific stock to follow long term.

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The way I invest is as easy as it gets.....

Me and my wife do the exact same thing(I do it all)

Max our 401ks bi weekly heavily into small cap value fund. Small cap value typically does better over long periods of time. I'm not touching this until I have to at 70.5.

We max our Roth's with 3 funds. VYM(High dividend), VIG(dividend appreciation) and VNQ(REIT ETF). I just max these at the first of the year and be done with them. This is just for tax free income in retirement. I auto re-invest the dividends

Then in a taxable account I buy the ETF for the total stock market ETF(VTI)75% and small cap value ETF(VBR) at the end of every month and I don't give two shits what the market it is at the end of the month. With the dividends form this I buy more VYM in the taxable.

I don't buy single stocks and I don't try and guess whether the market is about to go up. I'm happy to see my account grow and I'm even happier when the funds are cheaper.

I enjoy seeing what my total dividends are each quarter more than anything else

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20 minutes ago, OILERMAN said:

The way I invest is as easy as it gets.....

Me and my wife do the exact same thing(I do it all)

Max our 401ks bi weekly heavily into small cap value fund. Small cap value typically does better over long periods of time. I'm not touching this until I have to at 70.5.

We max our Roth's with 3 funds. VYM(High dividend), VIG(dividend appreciation) and VNQ(REIT ETF). I just max these at the first of the year and be done with them. This is just for tax free income in retirement. I auto re-invest the dividends

Then in a taxable account I buy the ETF for the total stock market ETF(VTI)75% and small cap value ETF(VBR) at the end of every month and I don't give two shits what the market it is at the end of the month. With the dividends form this I buy more VYM in the taxable.

I don't buy single stocks and I don't try and guess whether the market is about to go up. I'm happy to see my account grow and I'm even happier when the funds are cheaper.

I enjoy seeing what my total dividends are each quarter more than anything else

Ah yes.   Oman fires up that grill bi-weekly and gets to cookin' those stocks!

But what does he use to get the best tasting, low risk flavor out of his stocks you say?

 

0005440001277_500X500.jpg

       A1 Stock Sauce.  It's how Stock is done!

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