Thinking about the draft / and drafting value

[Redeye Malone]

Hi all,  this is my first post here - just joined.  I've been on other Titan's sites but really like the discussions over here so signed up.

 

After the draft finished I got to thinking about value in the draft - and thinking about what it means.  Obviously with hindsight you can know whether a pick is good or bad - and maybe there's more levers to pull in getting better or more accurate scouting and try to avoid bad picks - but in the end there's always a lot of misses in the draft.  So I guess as a GM the best you can do to get the most value from your picks while still filling needs when they exist.  Ideally - you get value while filling needs at the same time.  But going in - you do have player ratings and expectations of success - and even despite that you have major busts every year, and you have some players that are undrafted that become contributors or even stars.

 

So in this vein - I was looking at the Titan's draft (and other team's as well) and think the Titan's got good value based upon player rankings going into the draft.  I looked at player grades from NFL.com and CBS sports for this conclusion.  I also used the draft trade value chart to estimate the amount of "value" a pick was worth to guage how much value a team captured if they picked a player that was projected to be drafted earlier, but "fell" to their below expected rank.

 

Based on that the Titans did pretty well.  Here's a summary:

 

Taylor Lewan - projected to go around 8 or 9. We got him at pick 11. From a draft value standpoint, that's worth about 125 extra points on the draft value trade table.

Bishop Sankey - Was drafted about where he was projected. We picked him at 54, and he was projected from 50-55.

DaQuan Jones - At pick 112 this was an excellent value pick. CBS had him valued as the 64th best player, and NFL had him graded as 73 best player. This was a lot of value added here based on draft pick trade value - somewhere between 155 and 200 points. Excellent for a pick this far down.

Marqueston Huff - He was about where you would've expected as 122. CBS had him rated 105, and NFL had him 145.

Avery Williamson - Drafted about where he was projected at 151 - maybe a tad early based on the charts. CBS had him rated 197 and NFL had him rated 145.

Zach Mettenberger - At 178 this was another good value pick. He was projected to go around 125 by CBS and 98 by NFL grade rank. From a draft value standpoint because we pick up a 3rd or 4th round projected player in the 6th. Not bad at all to not lose draft value on what might be a low probability developmental quarterback.

 

Below is a summary in table form of our picks, along with their projections, and with comparisons of the "value" of those picks based on teh draft trade value chart.

 

 

So overall I think it's pretty clear the Titan's got pretty good value for their picks based on player rankings going into the draft.  Whether they work out or not is another story, but I think it'd be hard to say the Titan's reached based on the talent available.

 

Some teams did reach.  I put together data looked through some other teams to try and figure out which teams didn't draft for value - for example a team like the Bucs looked like they reached on nearly every single pick. The Bears may have destroyed value by reaching at the top of their board also. The Dolphins looked like they forced a couple o-line picks hurting the pick value. Eagles, Saints, and Seahawks picks also looked like reaches per these comparisons.

Several teams did very well - the Vikings in particular stand out, as do the Raiders and Steelers. If Nix works out the Texans also look good from a value standpoint.

 

Anyhow,  I'd think over time that a team that focuses on drafting value should accumulate more talent than a team that reaches - unless they have scouts and a system that deviates far from normal - and the Titan's seemed to do well this year and avoided reaching by taking the talent that was available. 

 

I'm curious if others think of the draft this way (regardless of the players drafted)?  And similarly - do you think the GM's job is to go outside the box and find the needle in haystack type player that might be considered a "reach" based on the numbers - or should a GM honor the global scouting concensus and draft the value that falls to him?  (I guess this would put more pressure on a coach to make the best use of the talent he has, rather than trying to draft  a specific type player). 

 

Anyhow,  I find this interesting, and appreciate any thoughts on thinking about value in the draft. 

[TitansGuru]

Really good stuff. Of course you have to consider whether or not the opinions of these places is worth anything, but it seemed clear while we were watching that we were getting value with every pick.

[FRT]

I got a feeling you will get a ban challenge soon with all that analysis.

 

 

 

 

 

BTW good job.

[Eighteen]

Very well put together first post. As I said before our draft wasn't sexy by fan and "journalists" standards but overall I'm pleased with how it turned out. Solid B IMO.

[Tex in a Can]

Welcome to Titans report!

Nice analysis and positive!

Disregard any one line negative posts, we have our share of flaming tarts.

Tex

[Redeye Malone]

Thanks for the comments.  I wish I had more info from prior drafts, but I kindof wonder if Ruston is always a "draft value"/bpa type of guy? 

 

I can't recall us taking long-shot or workout-warrior picks like the Titan's used to do since Ruston has taken over.   I think most picks last year were "value" picks also, but I don't have pre-draft rankings to compare to.  I'm pretty sure Chance was the value pick, and Hunter was expected to go earlier than the Titans got him.  I'm not sure about some of the others, but also think Schwenke in the 4th was a good value pick, as was Lavar Edwards in the 5th. 

[Cyrus]

This is how you do a first post! Welcome!

[bostontitan]

Its about time we pick value ...

[headhunter]

Go look at Renifeldt drafts, pure garbage.

[El Guapo]

Enjoyed your post. After 2 days, I have grudgingly accepted that Lewan was picked because who they wanted were off the board. Fine.

 

I just wish for once that all the talking heads preaching "value" were willing to have follow up in a year and see what actually was of value. Did Lewan have better grades than Robert Gallery? Chance Warmack? Hell, we have a prior can't miss prospect (Oher) getting slammed on this board. So before we crown him the future LT for 10 years, lets see how he does first.

 

I accept that we may have a solid offensive line. We have better running backs than last year. Hunter should be much better. As always, much depends on Locker. Defense will have bodies and hopefully solid coaching.

 

The titans will be solid in a rebuilding year.

 

However, you need some all-pro type players. I see Casey on defense and that is it. We will see what the future holds….

[Redeye Malone]

I just wish for once that all the talking heads preaching "value" were willing to have follow up in a year and see what actually was of value. Did Lewan have better grades than Robert Gallery? Chance Warmack? Hell, we have a prior can't miss prospect (Oher) getting slammed on this board. So before we crown him the future LT for 10 years, lets see how he does first.

Me too.  It's too easy to go back after the draft 3-5 yrs later and look at how random it all seems in hindsight, but understanding how a players are mis-evaluated - even when it's not apparent leading up to the draft.  (I guess Ryan Leaf is a classic example, but probably impossible to see beforehand).

 

First rounders will fail, but understanding "why" they fail might be instructive. And I wonder how quickly the coaches realize a player was a mistake but have to stick with him because he was drafted?   Heck the Titan's have had their share recently.  (VY, Woolfolk, Britt, Pacman) At the time they still might be the "right" pick imho knowing what the Titan's knew at the time, but understanding what went wrong in the draft analysis would be instructive.  (VY - work ethic, mentally fragile?  Woolfolk - position change?, Britt - focus, friends, consistent injuries, can't catch?   Pacman - well, maybe we rolled the dice with eyes wide open?)  We;ve had some other guys we drafted like Chris Henry who were characteristic of us drafting statistics instead of players.

 

edit:  and I guess - looking back:  in 2006 the best guy we drafted was a 7th rounder (Finnegan), and in 2009 it was a 6th rounder (McCourty); the best in 2010 (so far) was a 4th rounder (Verner).  Maybe understanding why these guys work out helps us understand the earlier rounds better too.

[chef]

Welcome, nice job.

 

 

As was already noted, just because all the talking heads say the world is flat doesn't mean the 6th century Greek philosopher-mathematicians were wrong (what, think I say Columbus).  So using their measurements of any given draftee against what a professional organization with their scouting resources ends up choosing is hardly fair.  Then again, time and time again, many of these teams for whatever prove that they might not be doing a better job than the TV experts and armchair GMs, so you might as well use numbers where ya got'em.

 

 

I think what would be interesting would be to create an average draft value combing the slot predicted by a grouping of several of the more highly regarded draft sites, then do some historical analysis and come up with a simple +/- number for each team for each draft.  Then do an eyeball test and see how they hold up talent wise.

 

 

 

Keep it up, and stick around.

[ctm]

Nice work.

 

There is another issue.  How well did the team meet their priorities?

 

Yea, we got value for Mettenberger in the 6th, but what if we really wanted a QB in the 2nd?

 

Lewan was good value in the first, but what if the team really wanted a pass rusher?

 

Fans can't answer these question because the front office won't tell us, but I suspect they might look at things a little differently than we do.

[Bobo]

Definitely looks like we got value in a few spots, and for me personally, some guys I just really like. 

 

I can't help but look at the other side of this though, specifically the needs. 

So I guess as a GM the best you can do to get the most value from your picks while still filling needs when they exist.

 

With the top pick in this draft and last, Ruston has emphasized the top OL over the top DL. I question that method for building the best team possible. I question the value of OG at 10. I question taking an OT with Roos still a viable option and Oher here as well. Just the other side of the coin.

[Redeye Malone]

Definitely looks like we got value in a few spots, and for me personally, some guys I just really like. 

 

I can't help but look at the other side of this though, specifically the needs. 

 

With the top pick in this draft and last, Ruston has emphasized the top OL over the top DL. I question that method for building the best team possible. I question the value of OG at 10. I question taking an OT with Roos still a viable option and Oher here as well. Just the other side of the coin.

It'd be interesting to know if Aaron Donald at DT was our #2 option for that pick, or maybe one of the LB like Shazier or Mosley.  Those were probably the top defensive players on the board at the time.