Draft History Part 1 - RBs

[Jamalisms]

With the struggles of starter Chris Johnson and pending unrestricted free agency of oft-injured backup Javon Ringer, one position Titans fans are paying close attention to at the Combine is Running Back.

As Combine results are reported, each fan develops a favorite... but will favorite players be available by the time the Titans are on the board?

Over the past ten years, two-hundred and twelve* runningbacks have been drafted. These selections were fairly evenly dispersed throughout the draft. In total, twenty-nine rushers were selected in the first round, twenty-four in the second round, twenty-three in the third, thirty-eight in the fourth, nineteen were taken in the fifth, thirty-five more in the sixth round and a final forty-four were selected in the seventh round.

Eight runningbacks were drafted in the top ten, where the Titans currently hold a pick, which averages to less than one per year. An additional twenty-three runningbacks were selected between picks eleven and forty, where the Titans are currently slated to pick in round two. In all, that’s thirty-one rushers taken in the top forty, or 14.6% of all runningbacks drafted, an average of slightly more than three per year.

Averages for the past five years are about the same. Over that time, one hundred runningbacks have been drafted. The number of backs selected for each round one through seven was fifteen, thirteen, ten, thirteen, ten, twenty-one and eighteen, respectively. Three rushers, (again less than one per year), were taken in the top ten, while seventeen total, (a bit more than three per year), were selected in the top forty during this time.

It is unlikely that the Titans look to draft a runningback with the tenth overall pick, but if you are among the hoping to draft a guy like Eddie Lacy in the second round, averages would suggest that three running backs will have to come off the board before him. Typically, the run on these guys occurs in the twenties, so hold your breath as the bottom third of the first round hits. In the past decade, fourteen runners were taken between picks twenty-one and thirty, including the Titans’ current starter Chris Johnson. Six of seventeen rushers taken in the top forty picks over the past five years were selected in the same range.

No other team has drafted more runningbacks over the past ten years than the Titans, who have averaged one rusher each year. The Titans have taken a running back in eight of the past ten drafts, doubling up in both 2004 and 2006 while skipping the position in 2010 and 2012. The average draft spot of drafted Titans runningbacks is 133.5, or the tail end of the fourth round (depending on compensatory picks).

Current starter Chris Johnson is the only runningback drafted in the first round (pick 24, 2008). LenDale White (pick 45, 2006) and Chris Henry (pick 50, 2007) were both selected in the second round. Chris Brown (pick 93, 2003) is the only draftee in the third round. Jamie Harper (pick 130, 2011) was a fourth round selection and is still with the team. Damien Nash (pick 142, 2005) and unrestricted free agent Javon Ringer (pick 173, 2009), who is recovering from arthroscopic knee surgery, were both taken in the fifth round. Troy Fleming (pick 191, 2004) was taken in the sixth round. Sean McHugh (pick 241, 2004) and Quinton Ganther (pick 246, 2006) are the final two backs, both acquired in the seventh round of the draft.

Based on Titans history, both average pick and recent history, I'm not expecting a top forty pick like Eddie Lacy. I would expecting a mid-round runningback to be taken - maybe in the third but more likely in the fourth or fifth round. Someone like Javon Ringer, only less injury prone. Someone like Jamie Harper, only more immediately impactful.

*This excludes seventeen individuals listed at fullback who were drafted over the last decade.

See OG Draft History here

See DT Draft History here

See DE Draft History here

Click here to view the article

[TitanTuttle]

I am not sure when he is expected to go with the knee injury & all, but If Marcus Lattimore is still around after a few rounds, he would be worth considering. A lot of teams may not want to wait around for a year for his knee to heal, but the Titans might be willing to since C.J. will be around at least for another year.

[Apocalypse]

I'd def take Lattimore in the later rounds and give him a year to heal.

[Jamalisms]

I feel like he goes round 1 or 2.

[abenjami]

Fleming, McHugh and Ganther weren't really tailbacks who fit into the analysis.

Based on history alone I would say there's a decent shot at drafting a guy like Lacy considering the Lendale and Henry picks in the second round.

[WG53]

Yeah McHugh is a TE/FB. Fleming was a fb too.

[Jamalisms]

i can appreciate that, but the problem is those types of guys exist for all teams. There's no way to account for "mis-listed" guys on all other teams... so it doesn't make to adjust just for the Titans. This is based on the position listed by ESPN's draft history.

[Jamal's Boss]

How many hours did you kill writing this dreck?

[Jamalisms]

How many hours did you kill writing this dreck?

Note the time posted.

This is what trying too hard and the absence of creativity looks like. What could have been funny is reduced to sorry trolling. Shame.

[reo]

I'm expecting them to get a big back in FA and then going a different route in the draft.

Mendenhall would be amusing since he was drafted a slot ahead of CJ in '08 but probably too expensive?

[HigherLogic]

Jonathan Franklin

[IowaOiler]

It was a well-written article @Jamalisms, but I don't know what was really added to the discourse. Much of those 10 years were under a HC that valued the RB much higher than our current staff, and Coach Ocho couldn't identify talent unless he saw it on their rap sheets.

I do agree that we won't be drafting RB early. If we were, CJ would have been cut, and I would be down $100. Getting a dependable, bruiser type back to compliment CJ is a definite need, but isn't above getting a safety that can tackle, lineman that can block, or a play-maker on the DL or in the receiving core.

[JCBRAVE]

IMO we could take a RB as early as the 3rd round

[Jamalisms]

I have not bothered to look into Lattimore's recovery too much... so this is a general statement noting the ability of RBs to come back from knee injuries... but I'd generally only let a guy slip one round due to a knee injury, even one like that. I probably would not take him in the second based on other needs, but if I could get a guy with his talent in the third round... no hesitation. Zero.

[titanruss]

Draft:

Le'veon Bell / Montee Ball / Christine michael

Free agents:

chris ivory

shonn greene

isaac redmon