Jamalisms Posted August 26, 2013 Author Report Share Posted August 26, 2013 What I will say is that Jones-Drew is not Tomlinson. History strongly suggests that he won’t repeat as the leader, so I won’t have him number one. All other leaders dropped a minimum of 20 percent between years, and the guys with some age (Alexander and Martin) dropped off by 50 percent-plus. Don't forget that almost exactly one year ago we weren't even certain Jones-Drew's knees were going to last one more season, let alone one in which he shouldered the load. More likely than reprising his role as the league leader, Jones-Drew’s 2012 ceiling is probably somewhere between fourth and sixth place. This is the range of follow-up years for Peterson, Johnson, and Foster. If that is his ceiling, he definitely won’t sniff my top three. Considering the combined fates of Martin and Alexander, the latter of which led the league in his sixth year and fell off the face of the earth in his seventh, Jones-Drew might not even be in my top five. Simply put, Jones-Drew is not a lock for fantasy greatness just because he won the rushing title last year. If anything, history suggests otherwise and you’re being fed sweet tasting lies by anyone who claims otherwise. If you have a late first round pick and Jones-Drew falls, that's very good value. If you have an early pick, I suggest letting someone else gamble. The risk is bigger than you think. Considering that I nailed MJD last year, I'm bumping this in regard to AP. You may want to hesitate before drafting him as the first RB... especially after that many carries... though I'd still draft him high, maybe even #1 if nobody elsereally strikes a fancy. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishTitansFan Posted August 26, 2013 Report Share Posted August 26, 2013 Considering that I nailed MJD last year, I'm bumping this in regard to AP. You may want to hesitate before drafting him as the first RB... especially after that many carries... though I'd still draft him high, maybe even #1 if nobody elsereally strikes a fancy. CJ Spiller is my number 1 RB Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
HOTT Posted August 28, 2013 Report Share Posted August 28, 2013 IMO Jones Drew isn't what he was, but is still a way above average RB. I think a guy named Toddman will get a pretty good number of carries behind him. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim Posted August 28, 2013 Report Share Posted August 28, 2013 Everyone is entitled to one self gloss a week. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OILERMAN Posted August 28, 2013 Report Share Posted August 28, 2013 MJD> CJ Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
abenjami Posted August 28, 2013 Report Share Posted August 28, 2013 I drafted MJD late 2nd round last weekend. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dmeade- Posted August 28, 2013 Report Share Posted August 28, 2013 I got him in the second as well. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamalisms Posted August 29, 2013 Author Report Share Posted August 29, 2013 This is from and mainly about last year, btw... though there is history which suggests that odds are against a vet like MJD who led the league being top 10 in rushing very many times before retirement. Not sure how strongly to weigh that history, though. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
abenjami Posted August 29, 2013 Report Share Posted August 29, 2013 I've got a pretty solid squad. If he's just healthy at fantasy playoff time I'm happy. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OILERMAN Posted August 29, 2013 Report Share Posted August 29, 2013 Probably helps him that he basically had a year off the beating last year Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleepingTitan Posted August 29, 2013 Report Share Posted August 29, 2013 Strong pen, sir! In MJD defense, I will say that I've read...he sleeps in a hyperbaric chamber: http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/story/12546367/hungry-jonesdrew-rushing-to-elite-stature. I'm still not drafting him even if his increased oxygen during sleep allows him to be superhuman when he's awake. I typically draft in a shifty manner, and it all depends on my pick, what my next and subsequent pick will be, and obviously what has been picked. 1st pick, I usually go with the guy I think will lead the league in rushing. The second pick, I balance depending on who has picked since my first pick. The best thing you can do for yourself is evaluate how many players the year before were in the top 10% of their position, and draft best available position based on how many people in that top 10 were picked or will likely be picked before you next pick, keeping the highest scoring positions ranked by importance of course. That being said, it's RARELY ever a good idea to pick RB RB. I've won by going QB 1st pick. I've won WR first pick. I've NEVER won RB first pick. The last thing you EVER wanna do in a draft is leave a player on the table for the guy who got a great value the round before. Sometimes, you gotta jump rounds...if only to secure that guy or start a run on another position so that you can get the better value guy later. If you pick only BPA or value or "by the book" you'll end up with hot dog flavored water...lukewarm. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oiler FANatic Posted August 29, 2013 Report Share Posted August 29, 2013 I drafted MJD late 2nd round last weekend. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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