4th quarter comebacks

[Callidus]

2 minutes ago, Huston said:

Elway would disagree with a lot of you.

Sorry, I don't get this reference. Explain?

[Huston]

1 minute ago, Callidus said:

Sorry, I don't get this reference. Explain?

Elway is the king of the 4th quarter comeback.

[Callidus]

47 minutes ago, Huston said:

Elway is the king of the 4th quarter comeback.

O ya i get that I thought he had said something. You have to admit that even if he isnt elway or Favre he is still good in crunch time. No1 is saying he is the best but he does do better under pressure than not most of the time.

[Huston]

4 minutes ago, Callidus said:

O ya i get that I thought he had said something. You have to admit that even if he isnt elway or Favre he is still good in crunch time. No1 is saying he is the best but he does do better under pressure than not most of the time.

No I agree, Marcus is most certainly a clutch player.

[BudsOilers]

As reference albeit I do think 4th quarter comebacks can be overrated as technically a score on the first play of the 4th quarter when behind would count if it held up....

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/comebacks_active.htm

 

Carr and Prescott come off well given their similar tenure to Mariota. 

 

I think this aspect of Mariota's game is overrated a bit but at the same time it's something. 

 

One ironic aspect - Gabbert has a 4QCC/GWD in the mentioned Arizona game in 2017.

[wiscotitansfan]

2 hours ago, IsntLifeFunny said:

He’s clutch. There’s no way around it. If anything that is his one redeeming quality.

And yet when he is being clutch, he is still just a regular QB..... As I have said time and time and time again, it's not like he just plays lights out and does stuff that other QBs can't

 

2 hours ago, IsntLifeFunny said:

When the game is on the line he is one of the best at engineering a game winning drive. 

I'd have to see numbers to make me believe that he is head and shoulders above anyone, our defense is the real champ when it comes to majority of the game winning drives.... Not saying you need to dig it up, but I'd like to see stats of players "when the game is on the line" to prove that he's one at the best at keeping the drive going and taking the lead

[BudsOilers]

He’s engineered a few winning drives in the late 4th

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/comeback.cgi?player=MariMa01

[wiscotitansfan]

37 minutes ago, BudAdams said:

He’s engineered a few winning drives in the late 4th

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/comeback.cgi?player=MariMa01

No one has denied the facts of the quantity of 4th QTR comebacks... They're questioning the validity and role that Mariota played in how he obviously willed those countless epic finishes.

 

Not that you will (because you never said it) but prove to me that Mariota is more clutch than others and one of the best at engineering these game winning drives, and quantity of comebacks is a hollow stat fyi

 

Very few times, there were some though, where I was wow'd by Marcus to the point of me thinking other QBs couldn't have pulled out the same W

Edited February 22, 2019 by wiscotitansfan

[nine]

I don't know about judging a QB by Q4 comebacks...but many of Marcus' brightest moments came in these situations.

 

For whatever this  is worth...according to Stats.com:  in 2018, Mariota had a 104.2 fourth-quarter passer rating and a 100.3 rating in the second half, ranking #9 and #11 in those categories.

 

http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?year=&range=NFL&type=Passing&rank=110

 

http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?year=&range=NFL&type=Passing&rank=109

 

 

[IsntLifeFunny]

24 minutes ago, nine said:

I don't know about judging a QB by Q4 comebacks...but many of Marcus' brightest moments came in these situations.

 

For whatever this  is worth...according to Stats.com:  in 2018, Mariota had a 104.2 fourth-quarter passer rating and a 100.3 rating in the second half, ranking #9 and #11 in those categories.

 

http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?year=&range=NFL&type=Passing&rank=110

 

http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?year=&range=NFL&type=Passing&rank=109

 

 

Take that down to game winning scenarios and I bet the stats go up. He has a few great qualities mixed in with several bad ones. He thrives in clutch situations and has one of the quickest releases in the game. He has a solid deep ball. He also has shown the propensity to work on his flaws. 

 

The flaws he hasn’t kicked start with him not staying healthy, which leads to the discussion of his pocket awareness, leading to games like Baltimore, which inevitably ends up with his terrible stats. He’s inconsistent, and he’s largely been terrible in the first quarter and a good amount of times the first half. I think a good bit of it is situational, but heading into year five he is what he is until proven otherwise. 

Edited February 23, 2019 by IsntLifeFunny

[BudsOilers]

16 hours ago, wiscotitansfan said:

No one has denied the facts of the quantity of 4th QTR comebacks... They're questioning the validity and role that Mariota played in how he obviously willed those countless epic finishes.

 

Not that you will (because you never said it) but prove to me that Mariota is more clutch than others and one of the best at engineering these game winning drives, and quantity of comebacks is a hollow stat fyi

 

Very few times, there were some though, where I was wow'd by Marcus to the point of me thinking other QBs couldn't have pulled out the same W

I agree with you as it’s completely exaggerated by some.

 

When posting the data I pointed out that their definition of 4QC and GWD  is broad as a FG to go from down 1 to up 2 with 9 minutes left in the game counts if it holds up.  There are some of those types in the Mariota list as well as GW drives like the OT 12-9 thriller st Cleveland in 2017 or the 9-6 win at Jacksonville last year.

 

I can think of a few games late or in OT with the game on the line where he cane through 

 

@ NO in 2015

@ Detroit and @ KC in 2016

Cincinnati in 2017

Eagles and Jets games in 2018

 

I don’t think that’s anything overly special in relation to his peers

[nine]

With 9 fourth quarter comeback wins in 4 years, Marcus averages 2.3 comeback wins per season.    This is literally the 11th highest rate of comeback wins in NFL history.....which certainly *sounds* impressive.   I mean,  only ten quarterbacks in the history of the game have averaged more comebacks wins per season.....so that's rarified air, right?    

 

Well...maybe not so much.

 

Here's a list of quarterbacks with the highest rate of 4th quarter comeback wins:     (spoiler alert:   while there are certainly some big names on the list....the list as a whole is pretty underwhelming). 

 

Ultimately, I'd say comeback wins are one of those stats that spark interesting discussion....but they're basically meaningless in terms of assessing overall quality of play.

Rank	Player			4Q wins/season
1	Derek Carr		3.2
2	Baker Mayfield		3.0
3	Dak Prescott		2.7
4	Matthew Stafford	2.6
5	Andy Dalton		2.5
6	Deshaun Watson		2.5
7	Matt Ryan		2.5
8	Russell Wilson		2.4
9	Peyton Manning		2.4
10	Andrew Luck		2.3
11	Marcus Mariota		2.3
12	Ryan Tannehill		2.1
13	Ben Roethlisberger	2.1
14	Jake Plummer		2.0
15	John Skelton		2.0
16	Tim Couch		2.0
17	Tim Tebow		2.0
18	Dan Marino		1.9
19	John Elway		1.9
20	Jay Cutler		1.9
21	Jim Kelly		1.9
22	Drew Brees		1.9
23	Johnny Unitas		1.9
24	Cam Newton		1.9
25	Tony Romo		1.8
26	Tom Brady		1.8
27	Eli Manning		1.8
28	Philip Rivers		1.7
29	Drew Bledsoe		1.7
30	Aaron Brooks		1.7

 

[BudsOilers]

The flip side is I can find 5 cases where the Titans failed in a one-score deficit to go ahead:

 

Raiders 2016 - Lost 17-10 turning it over on downs with 16 seconds left.  Note this is the game Lewan had the dumb ass personal foul that turned a 1st and goal from the 3 into a 1st and 10 from the 18 with a minute left.

 

Texas 2016 - Lost 27-20.  Had ball with 4:30 left and turned it over on downs with 1:52 left

 

Arizona 2017 - Lost 12-7.  Had ball twice in last 3:45 and gained 4 yards in 2 drives.

 

Rams 2017 - Lost 27-23.  Had ball with 3:25 left and turned in over on downs with 1:45 left.

 

Chargers 2018 - Failed 2 point conversion with 31 seconds left

[BudsOilers]

57 minutes ago, nine said:

With 9 fourth quarter comeback wins in 4 years, Marcus averages 2.3 comeback wins per season.    This is literally the 11th highest rate of comeback wins in NFL history.....which certainly *sounds* impressive.   I mean,  only ten quarterbacks in the history of the game have averaged more comebacks wins per season.....so that's rarified air, right?    

 

Well...maybe not so much.

 

Here's a list of quarterbacks with the highest rate of 4th quarter comeback wins:     (spoiler alert:   while there are certainly some big names on the list....the list as a whole is pretty underwhelming). 

 

Ultimately, I'd say comeback wins are one of those stats that spark interesting discussion....but they're basically meaningless in terms of assessing overall quality of play.

Rank	Player			4Q wins/season
1	Derek Carr		3.2
2	Baker Mayfield		3.0
3	Dak Prescott		2.7
4	Matthew Stafford	2.6
5	Andy Dalton		2.5
6	Deshaun Watson		2.5
7	Matt Ryan		2.5
8	Russell Wilson		2.4
9	Peyton Manning		2.4
10	Andrew Luck		2.3
11	Marcus Mariota		2.3
12	Ryan Tannehill		2.1
13	Ben Roethlisberger	2.1
14	Jake Plummer		2.0
15	John Skelton		2.0
16	Tim Couch		2.0
17	Tim Tebow		2.0
18	Dan Marino		1.9
19	John Elway		1.9
20	Jay Cutler		1.9
21	Jim Kelly		1.9
22	Drew Brees		1.9
23	Johnny Unitas		1.9
24	Cam Newton		1.9
25	Tony Romo		1.8
26	Tom Brady		1.8
27	Eli Manning		1.8
28	Philip Rivers		1.7
29	Drew Bledsoe		1.7
30	Aaron Brooks		1.7

 

Personally, I'd love to see a list that showed success rate when the offense gets the ball down 1 score with less than 5 minutes to go or in sudden death situations.  The stat as it's shown is just so broad as a score with 12 minutes left is not the same as an iconic Elway/Montana/Brady/Manning last minute drive.  

[wiscotitansfan]

1 hour ago, BudAdams said:

Personally, I'd love to see a list that showed success rate when the offense gets the ball down 1 score with less than 5 minutes to go or in sudden death situations.  The stat as it's shown is just so broad as a score with 12 minutes left is not the same as an iconic Elway/Montana/Brady/Manning last minute drive.  

Yeah, that's the stuff that I am more interested in too because it is a much much closer definition to clutch. Obviously the quantity doesn't really matter because a bad offense and a great defense will put you in the scenario much more often than simply just being good.