TitansGuru Posted April 28, 2017 Report Share Posted April 28, 2017 I was going to write a post explaining the process of creating it, and I still might, but here is a chart I created based on actual production of each pick. The short summary is that the traditional draft chart is all wrong from a real value standpoint. Higher picks are valued too highly and lower picks are valued too lowly. First lets take a look at the chart everyone knows, developed by Jimmy Johnson: The actual draft value should be as close to production received from the slot as possible. To do this I generated a trend line formula based on best fit of all draft picks since 2000 with their production. If you take the percentage of mean points for all picks in the traditional draft chart and compare them to the percentage of mean 3YAV performance for all picks, you can get an idea of how the traditional chart values each pick in relation to another. This is something I picked up from the Harvards Sports Analysis Collective. Doing this really highlights the flaws if the standard draft chart. The number one overall pick is valued at 1107% of the average pick in the Jimmy Johnson chart. Historically, its should be valued at 397%. This means teams are overvaluing the top pick by 279%! Unless a team completely sold on a high pick or you have a chance to get a top quarterback or defensive end prospect, a savvy team picking high could take advantage of the current system. To create a new point system, I then used the trend line formula to output a list of expected value based on production. These numbers were then scaled to be more user friendly. What you end up with is the following chart: You can see the curve play out in the distribution of the points. There is a steep drop that rounds into a steady decline somewhere around the early part of round two. In the traditional chart, the first picks are valued so highly that the steep drop continues all the way through the third round and then leveling out a bit towards the end of four. To put in in perspective, when comparing the two charts, the Jimmy Johnson draft chart values the number one pick at 8,366 points. The purpose of a draft chart is to determine the relative value each pick holds. At its core, you are trying to determining how the player you get a chance to choose at one slot compares to the player you get a chance to choose at another slot. This new chart fits the curve of actual value as demonstrated below. Having established a chart based on production, I admit that I don't expect teams to adapt the same approach anytime soon. However, a team could look to the actual value and use it against teams working on on the points system and reap the rewards. Have a high pick? Trade down and reap the rewards. When you get to the later rounds, unless you really love a player, almost any trade down will work to your benefit. Working on a trade in general? Have the team throw in some later picks. Whatever the case might be, you want to get as many picks in the first two to three rounds as possible because hat's where your starters are drafted. Trade back a few slots and collect picks in those rounds. You want to try to accumulate picks in lower rounds because those choices are undervalued. You are not likely to get a starter there, but accumulating them at a discount on production will give you a better chance to find contributors or that rare diamond in the rough. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TitansGuru Posted April 28, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 28, 2017 Some quick supplementary material... Here is the breakdown of starters by round: But once a player becomes a starter, most positions tend to play a bit more comparably regardless of round. There is an obvious exception with quarterback. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TitansFan23 Posted April 28, 2017 Report Share Posted April 28, 2017 I feel like I'm back at TTU taking statistics all over again. Although, I have to admit, that course would have been so much better had football been incorporated into it; would've been a lot more interesting. Great job Guru. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TitansGuru Posted April 28, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 28, 2017 Just now, TitansFan23 said: I feel like I'm back at TTU taking statistics all over again. Although, I have to admit, that course would have been so much better had football been incorporated into it; would've been a lot more interesting. Great job Guru. I hate that I couldn't get it out earlier. Just have been swamped with work. I'll do it again next year. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Titans279 Posted April 29, 2017 Report Share Posted April 29, 2017 11 hours ago, TitansGuru said: This means teams are overvaluing the top pick by 279%! This is obviously where my ID came from Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
No1TitansFan Posted April 29, 2017 Report Share Posted April 29, 2017 Really good, you should copyright that sucker,think you can show enough work backing it to be granted one. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TitansGuru Posted May 1, 2017 Author Report Share Posted May 1, 2017 Sooo, something very similar already existed. I just found out today from PK's post. Adding it here for next year: http://www.footballperspective.com/introducing-the-nfl-draft-pick-value-calculator Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denali Posted May 1, 2017 Report Share Posted May 1, 2017 Groundbreaking stuff!! Reminds me of this: Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWR Posted May 2, 2017 Report Share Posted May 2, 2017 2 hours ago, BergerKing said: Belichick is all about this type o stuff. This is why TN absolutely should have dealt in '15, & again with KC this yr. There are not enough draft picks to trade to TN to keep us from selecting Mariota. Having a franchise QBs trumps all. Bellicheck has the ability to do this type of things because he has a franchise QB - if not he'd be in the same positions as the Chicagos of the league. Mett has has never been more than a camp fodder- you're boy just got cut in favor of Josh Dobbs for Christ sake Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
GFTitans Posted May 2, 2017 Report Share Posted May 2, 2017 10 minutes ago, BergerKing said: Mariota's not a franchise QB. Used practice socks would be more than enough in return. Josh Dobbs actually looks really good(extremely smart too). He's what Mariota could be if he had any football saavy. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWR Posted May 2, 2017 Report Share Posted May 2, 2017 9 hours ago, BergerKing said: Mariota's not a franchise QB. Used practice socks would be more than enough in return. Josh Dobbs actually looks really good(extremely smart too). He's what Mariota could be if he had any football saavy. You as a talent evaluator continue your downhill dive- first Mettenberger who is currently not even on an NFL team and then Dobbs who can't throw from the pocket with accuracy to save his life. Berger must have some superhero knowledge that every pundit and team scout and officials don't have that all think of mariota as a franchise guy that is ascending to one of the top QBs in the league. A guy the NFL is counting on to be one of the faces after the Brady,Brees,Roethlisberger and Rodgers hang the cleats up. Berger is so far up his own ass and refuses to admit how wrong he is about Mett and Mariota- I've never seen a guy get backed so faithfully who has never even won an NFL game and accumulated his statistics in mop up time down by 20+. Make sure you spit before you tug,Berger, we don't want poor ole Mett to get any blisters. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanruss Posted May 2, 2017 Report Share Posted May 2, 2017 WizBerger is a Character of himself. Half of it is schtick now. Still, he only needed his jr high QB knowledge to pull the wool over the eyes of many people here hoping to believe in the mettsiah Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dinx81 Posted May 2, 2017 Report Share Posted May 2, 2017 1 hour ago, BergerKing said: It's very simple, Mariota isn't even a QB.. No, as of this moment Mett isnt even a QB Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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