OILERMAN Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, IsntLifeFunny said: Doesn’t this whole thing feel different to you? What’s happening is unprecedented. And it comes at a time where the FED can’t save us. With the way China’s economy has stalled, which means we are close to running out of a lot of everyday products, while sanitizer and TP are out in most major cities; I don’t know man this feels different. This feels like we are very close to the edge simply because of how it is being handled. Nah, first of all they always say "This time it feels different". I listened to Buffet yesterday talk about how 08 was way scarier than this, we were on the brink. Could it get way worse? Sure, 50-70% drop? maybe. But ultimately things will go back to normal and people will start buying shit and doing things. Starkiller 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChemEngr79 Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 Futures pointing to a -1200 opening... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Starkiller Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, IsntLifeFunny said: Doesn’t this whole thing feel different to you? What’s happening is unprecedented. And it comes at a time where the FED can’t save us. With the way China’s economy has stalled, which means we are close to running out of a lot of everyday products, while sanitizer and TP are out in most major cities; I don’t know man this feels different. This feels like we are very close to the edge simply because of how it is being handled. This isn’t the zombie apocalypse. People are afraid but in reality it’s just an economic speed bump. People aren’t dropping like flies like in Contagion. And the minority of people who do die will largely be seniors who, not to be cold, are not generally active members of the economy. Edited March 12, 2020 by Starkiller OILERMAN 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamalisms Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 There's certainly a possibility that altered spending patterns and distorted supply chains avalanche. Google the corporate debt bubble and that's been talked about for awhile. Maybe this finally triggers that. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsntLifeFunny Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 (edited) 28 minutes ago, Starkiller said: This isn’t the zombie apocalypse. People are afraid but in reality it’s just an economic speed bump. People aren’t dropping like flies like in Contagion. And the minority of people who do die will largely be seniors who, not to be cold, but are not generally active members of the economy. I’ve said this over multiple threads, because the more I think about it the more I believe it’s true: access to the internet is likely what will stymie any massive revolt from the people. This isn’t a speed bump. Come on. Major universities are closing across the nation. China is at a standstill in terms of production. Europe is isolating itself and its people. The NBA just shutdown. That isn’t a speed bump. That’s a brick wall that the car is speeding towards with no brakes. 8 minutes ago, Jamalisms said: There's certainly a possibility that altered spending patterns and distorted supply chains avalanche. Google the corporate debt bubble and that's been talked about for awhile. Maybe this finally triggers that. Give alms to Google for keeping the peace. Everyone can stay distracted for long enough. I’ll take it. If the information we all have did not come along with the distraction coefficient this would play out a lot differently. Hopefully I’m right about this, at least as it comes to the end outcome. We make it to the summer, it subsides, and life gets back to the new normal of people being zombies. Edited March 12, 2020 by IsntLifeFunny Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamalisms Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 It would peak in late April / early May anyway. But then we've got to deal with the very real economic fallout, whatever that is, and it'll rear its head again this fall. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Starkiller Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, Jamalisms said: There's certainly a possibility that altered spending patterns and distorted supply chains avalanche. Google the corporate debt bubble and that's been talked about for awhile. Maybe this finally triggers that. Corporate debt is a risk in any recession, but it’s not likely to be a systemic risk. I could see plenty of companies in the travel/tourism industry going bankrupt, for example. And maybe restaurants close from lack of business. But I don’t see it being an issue throughout the economy. Honestly, if the Princess cruise lines go bankrupt, someone buys them out of bankruptcy. If airlines go bankrupt, governments will bail them out (again). If restaurants close, more will open later when business picks up again. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamalisms Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 5 minutes ago, Starkiller said: Corporate debt is a risk in any recession, but it’s not likely to be a systemic risk. Uh ... so ... why not? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Starkiller Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 10 minutes ago, IsntLifeFunny said: I’ve said this over multiple threads, because the more I think about it the more I believe it’s true: access to the internet is likely what will stymie any massive revolt from the people. Access to the internet is just as likely to lead to revolts. When the fear mongers and conspiracy theorists have a loud voice and a widespread audience, the gullible in the audience do stupid things. Ironically, Trump being president calms them because they will do all sorts of shit to irrationally defend him, such as ignoring a pandemic. If this was happing under Obama they would be calling it a government plot to put people into FEMA re-education camps. There would be people armed in the streets and it would be like the Bundy ranch incident all over again. Right wing gun nuts would be taking over National Parks shacks in Oregon again. 10 minutes ago, IsntLifeFunny said: This isn’t a speed bump. Come on. Major universities are closing across the nation. China is at a standstill in terms of production. Europe is isolating itself and its people. The NBA just shutdown. That isn’t a speed bump. That’s a brick wall that the car is speeding towards with no brakes. All of this is temporary. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Starkiller Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 5 minutes ago, Jamalisms said: Uh ... so ... why not? Because it isn’t the banks this time. our entire economic system is not at risk. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChemEngr79 Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 (edited) The Dow is rolling into the open frozen at the futures' circuit breaker -5% level... Edited March 12, 2020 by ChemEngr79 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OilerTitanHybrid Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 Screaming buy out there today! BUYBUYBUY!!! Oh my gaaah! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChemEngr79 Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 (edited) Opened on -7% circuit breaker... Edited March 12, 2020 by ChemEngr79 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamalisms Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 Glad I kept my other 50% out ... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Starkiller Posted March 12, 2020 Report Share Posted March 12, 2020 I wish I had sold more a few weeks ago, but I still have plenty of cash on the sidelines waiting for the right time. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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