abenjami Posted March 10, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 10, 2020 (edited) 2 minutes ago, OILERMAN said: Huh? In 1955 the S&P 500 was 35.60 a share, in 1985 it was 171.60 https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-historical-prices/table/by-year DJIA adjusted for inflation https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart S&P 500 adjusted for inflation using your own website https://www.multpl.com/inflation-adjusted-s-p-500 Edited March 10, 2020 by abenjami Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OILERMAN Posted March 10, 2020 Report Share Posted March 10, 2020 Just now, Downtown said: Yeah, 2019 and 2020 are probably going to end up being a wash, which makes the tax bill a complete slap in the face. Actually, this reminds me, we should all compare our 2019 returns to look at options. All of my Wealthfront accounts show an average of 25.7% return in 2019. If you're doing vanguard, the low costs associated probably make up the 4.3%, along with the diversification differences (US Stocks only make up a percentage of your Wealthfront accounts as to make you less risk averse). The 11.5% was in my TSP, the federal retirement 401k, which has lower fees than anyone...., it made 27.97% in 2019 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OILERMAN Posted March 10, 2020 Report Share Posted March 10, 2020 1 minute ago, abenjami said: DJIA adjusted for inflation https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart What's the S&P 500 look like because no one invests in the Dow Jones Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
abenjami Posted March 10, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 10, 2020 6 minutes ago, OILERMAN said: What's the S&P 500 look like because no one invests in the Dow Jones It looks the same. I posted it above. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OILERMAN Posted March 10, 2020 Report Share Posted March 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, abenjami said: It looks the same. I posted it above. You literally picked one section. And people also do not invest in a lump sum in 1955 until 1985, you'd be buying shares throughout thus being up over the time frame Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamalisms Posted March 10, 2020 Report Share Posted March 10, 2020 27 minutes ago, OILERMAN said: You also moved out partially last year and missed huge gains Make a habit of it and you'll do worse than the market I beat the S&P last year anyway. But, yes, I'm not perfect and could have been even better. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OILERMAN Posted March 10, 2020 Report Share Posted March 10, 2020 Just now, Jamalisms said: I beat the S&P last year anyway. But, yes, I'm not perfect and could have been even better. Well you've certainly got it figured out. You'll be super rich timing the market so well Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
abenjami Posted March 10, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 10, 2020 6 minutes ago, OILERMAN said: You literally picked one section. And people also do not invest in a lump sum in 1955 until 1985, you'd be buying shares throughout thus being up over the time frame Sure but that is what people do when they say "historically you can't lose money in the market long term" or "the historical rate of return is 10%". Those kind of claims ignore realities such as inflation and timing of contributions. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamalisms Posted March 10, 2020 Report Share Posted March 10, 2020 Just now, OILERMAN said: Well you've certainly got it figured out. You'll be super rich timing the market so well Nah. Just happy to trade reduced risk for lower odds of an even better year. I'll played the middle and it felt wisest for whatever reason. The goal wasn't to beat the market. The goal was to lock in my gains from last year heading into a turbulent election during an unprecedented bull run. I removed the risk of exactly what has happened (different cause, though) and was happy doing that even if it meant missing out on further gains if the market kept chugging blindly along. It's happenstance because Coronavirus wasn't involved in my decision but pushed it to a profitable one. There's more to it because the long bull run set up some sentiment dominoes + deregulation has led to corporate debt being all sorts of fucked and those both play into it ... but this triggering event was unexpected. And I beat the S&P 500 last year because company stock is a beast. Also largely happenstance. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
abenjami Posted March 10, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 10, 2020 4 minutes ago, Jamalisms said: The goal was to lock in my gains from last year heading into a turbulent election during an unprecedented bull run. Word of caution. This was pretty much my thinking when I started this thread... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Downtown Posted March 10, 2020 Report Share Posted March 10, 2020 39 minutes ago, abenjami said: DJIA adjusted for inflation https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart S&P 500 adjusted for inflation using your own website https://www.multpl.com/inflation-adjusted-s-p-500 That's not how compound interest works though. You're not calculating the 30 years of other gains compounded and just looking at the comparative figures, while also discounting any splits that occurred during that timeframe along with passively re-investing dividends. In short, you'd have way more shares, but at a lower cost. S&P would have resulted in a 900% gain from 1955 to 1985 versus a 300% gain if looking at pure inflation. https://dqydj.com/sp-500-periodic-reinvestment-calculator-dividends/ OILERMAN 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamalisms Posted March 10, 2020 Report Share Posted March 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, abenjami said: Word of caution. This was pretty much my thinking when I started this thread... You stayed out, as far as I know. I gave myself a 6 month window that I'd consider pushing out past the election. Time in does matter, don't stay out too long. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
abenjami Posted March 10, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 10, 2020 12 minutes ago, Jamalisms said: You stayed out, as far as I know. I gave myself a 6 month window that I'd consider pushing out past the election. Time in does matter, don't stay out too long. I stayed out because the market shot up so fast I couldn't get back in. And then it just kept going up and up and up. OILERMAN 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
abenjami Posted March 10, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 10, 2020 12 minutes ago, Downtown said: That's not how compound interest works though. You're not calculating the 30 years of other gains compounded and just looking at the comparative figures, while also discounting any splits that occurred during that timeframe along with passively re-investing dividends. In short, you'd have way more shares, but at a lower cost. S&P would have resulted in a 900% gain from 1955 to 1985 versus a 300% gain if looking at pure inflation. https://dqydj.com/sp-500-periodic-reinvestment-calculator-dividends/ Investing in the market isn't really compounding interest though in a pure sense. And the charts are split-adjusted. I get what you are saying though and I don't vehemently disagree. My example was used in a specific way to rebut a specific generalized claim. Downtown 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Downtown Posted March 10, 2020 Report Share Posted March 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, abenjami said: Investing in the market isn't really compounding interest though in a pure sense. And the charts are split-adjusted. I get what you are saying though and I don't vehemently disagree. My example was used in a specific way to rebut a specific generalized claim. I also didn't realize those charts were split-adjusted. Still, its interesting to see Oilerman's 26 year positive window that includes 3 very large market corrections. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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