Popular Post OILERMAN Posted September 4, 2013 Popular Post Report Share Posted September 4, 2013 A preview of the upcoming 2013 season for the Tennessee Titans and a new way of predicting season success.The hardest thing to do in football these days is to predict how NFL teams will perform in a given season. Every year you see the worst teams from the previous season go to the playoffs the very next year. In 2012, the Colts, Redskins, and Vikings were all examples of this trend. All three of those teams won anywhere from two to five games in 2011.That very fact alone gives the Titans a chance to end up in the playoffs this season. The teams with top quarterbacks seem to always have a spot in the playoffs. The good news is the AFC seems weaker than the NFC and has fewer top signal callers than the NFC, leaving more potential playoff spots up for grabs. The bad news is both Schaub and Luck are in the same division as the Titans, making it a harder task for the team.Going by 2012, the Titans have the 23rd hardest schedule. The problem with this is that history shows the strength of schedule before and games are played is usually meaningless after the season plays out. Last year the Titans faced the 2-14 Colts twice as well as the 3-13 Vikings. The Titans lost all 3 of those games while beating the Steelers, who were 12-4 the previous season.A better gauge is to look at the quarterbacks the Titans will face in 2013. Looking down the schedule it looks as if the Titans play nine games in which the other team has a clear advantage at quarterback: Roethlisberger, Schaub (twice), Alex Smith, Russell Wilson, Kaepernick, Luck (twice), and Peyton Manning. I think Rivers, Palmer, and Bradford also have an edge but it is not as clear cut. A big step up from Locker this year could change the outlook, but this is how it is seen going into the season.The league is so close it does not even matter who you play as much as when you play them. Teams often go from good to bad or bad to good within the course of a season. The last several seasons we have seen teams barely qualify for the playoffs on late season runs and go all the way to win the Super Bowl. The Titans just need to stay in the race heading into the last three or four games then make their move.The last part of the schedule has mixed news. Four of the final six games are on the road, including three in a row at one point. There are also two trips to the west if you include Denver. The good news is the last game is against the Texans who could potentially rest their starters like they did in the 2011 finale.The Titans went 1-3 in the preseason but preseason records never hold much weight. The starters did well against the Falcons starters in the 3rd preseason game but it’s hard to even put much stock in that.Vegas has set the over/under on wins for the Titans at 6.5. As the power rankings are being released this week you see the Titans ranked anywhere from 22nd by Pete Prisco to 31st by Ross Tucker. It's hard to argue with the reasoning: a bad defense combined with an inconsistent passing game.The biggest improvement the Titans made this off-season is their blocking units. They upgraded their offensive line greatly and have probably the top blocking tight end trio in the league. The problem is this only helps on early downs when the game is tied or the Titans are ahead. There are too many situations in which the Titans may have to throw the ball from spread formations, nullifying their biggest offensive strength. Locker still looked a bit shaky and the pass protection didn't hold up really well in known passing situations in the preseason. They do not have a proven pass catching tight end and their wide receivers were inconsistent in the preseason and dating back to last year. Justin Hunter does not look ready to make a splash as a rookie. Chris Johnson blew pass blocking assignments in preseason action in limited snaps and that's been a weakness of his throughout his career.All of these factors combined with the fact that the defense is subpar leads me to predict the Titans will finish with 6 or 7 wins and 3rd in the AFC South.Prediction: 7-9Photo credit: AJ Guel. Used under the Creative Commons LicenseClick here to view the article Number9, Mercalius, Soxcat, and 4 others 7 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaOiler Posted September 4, 2013 Report Share Posted September 4, 2013 I think most would respect your opinion more on the Rams. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted September 4, 2013 Report Share Posted September 4, 2013 Iowa with the proverbial "Look at me, I'm trying to be relevant" post. Keep it up Corn-fed. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mercalius Posted September 4, 2013 Report Share Posted September 4, 2013 (edited) A better gauge is to look at the quarterbacks the Titans will face in 2013. Looking down the schedule it looks as if the Titans play nine games in which the other team has a clear advantage at quarterback: Roethlisberger, Schaub (twice), Alex Smith, Russell Wilson, Kaepernick, Luck (twice), and Peyton Manning. I think Rivers, Palmer, and Bradford also have an edge but it is not as clear cut. A big step up from Locker this year could change the outlook, but this is how it is seen going into the season. *************** The biggest improvement the Titans made this off-season is their blocking units. They upgraded their offensive line greatly and have probably the top blocking tight end trio in the league. The problem is this only helps on early downs when the game is tied or the Titans are ahead. There are too many situations in which the Titans may have to throw the ball from spread formations, nullifying their biggest offensive strength. Locker still looked a bit shaky and the pass protection didn't hold up really well in known passing situations in the preseason. They do not have a proven pass catching tight end and their wide receivers were inconsistent in the preseason and dating back to last year. Justin Hunter does not look ready to make a splash as a rookie. Chris Johnson blew pass blocking assignments in preseason action in limited snaps and that's been a weakness of his throughout his career A couple of points: I think Rivers is easily ahead of Alex Smith. I know you listed that potential, but, regardless of the last two seasons worth of performances (Where Rivers has looked pretty underwhelming and Smith has played very well), I'd still say Rivers is much more of a proven commodity than Smith - especially given Smith's new coach/team. I'd definitely switch the two on your list if you're just basing our win/loss projection on quality of quarterback. Nitpicky, but I still consider Rivers in the franchise QB territory where Smith is in much more of a grey area - recent history hints otherwise, but Smith was god-awful for half a decade while Rivers was going to pro bowls. As to the second bolded - while I believe you are dead-on that our blocking units are our biggest strength, I'd definitely say our receiver corp (as it stands today, with everyone relatively healthy and no arrest warrants being served) is a close 2nd. While it's true we lack the proven quarterback play to show we can come from behind, we have two wideouts in Nate and Kenny that have proven they can take over games and turn minimal gains into touchdowns. Added to this list is Wright - who though not nearly as flashy, is a pundit consensus as being our best wideout coming into next season. Apparently he really was impressive during the offseason and we did see flashes of it in a couple of preseason games. In addition, the combination of Hunter and Preston can't really be overlooked here. They may not see the field often, and they're both very green, but both have the HWS to not only take one blown coverage to the house but also be very viable targets when we do move near the endzone to create mismatches very much in our favor. Again, ideally we won't be playing from behind and it's a very much "prove it" aspect we need to show before we can really put much faith in it, but our receiver corp definitely has the potential to turn a 2 score game into a stalemate very fast - again assuming Locker makes the right decisions. Otherwise, good article. Edited September 4, 2013 by Mercalius Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OILERMAN Posted September 4, 2013 Author Report Share Posted September 4, 2013 Iowa predicted 10-6 last year with a playoff birth, I predicted 6 or 7 wins last year Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OILERMAN Posted September 4, 2013 Author Report Share Posted September 4, 2013 A couple of points: I think Rivers is easily ahead of Alex Smith. I know you listed that potential, but, regardless of the last two seasons worth of performances (Where Rivers has looked pretty underwhelming and Smith has played very well), I'd still say Rivers is much more of a proven commodity than Smith - especially given Smith's new coach/team. I'd definitely switch the two on your list if you're just basing our win/loss projection on quality of quarterback. Nitpicky, but I still consider Rivers in the franchise QB territory where Smith is in much more of a grey area - recent history hints otherwise, but he was god-awful for half a decade. I was listing opposing QBs I thought were better than Locker right now, not in any order. I didn't mean to say any of those 9 guys were better or worse than each other. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted September 4, 2013 Report Share Posted September 4, 2013 (edited) @Mercalius, I agree with you on Rivers. He has a clear advantage over Locker. I think Oman is being too conservative here as I would add Bradford and Palmer to that list. Locker has to make huge strides this year to change that view. Edited September 4, 2013 by oldschool Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mercalius Posted September 4, 2013 Report Share Posted September 4, 2013 I was listing opposing QBs I thought were better than Locker right now, not in any order. I didn't mean to say any of those 9 guys were better or worse than each other. I edited my post to reflect that if you're basing your win/loss opinion on opposing QBs - I'd consider SD much more likely a loss whereas KC should be more of a tossup. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OILERMAN Posted September 4, 2013 Author Report Share Posted September 4, 2013 @Mercalius, I agree with you on Rivers. He has a clear advantage over Locker. I think Oman is being too conservative here as I would add Bradford and Palmer to that list. Locker has to make huge strides this year to change that view. I said Bradford and Palmer were better but it was closer Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
enigma Posted September 4, 2013 Report Share Posted September 4, 2013 Iowa with the proverbial "Look at me, I'm trying to be relevant" post. Keep it up Corn-fed. Not that he needs anyone to defend him but you do realize that you have 6601 more posts than he does right? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OILERMAN Posted September 4, 2013 Author Report Share Posted September 4, 2013 I edited my post to reflect that if you're basing your win/loss opinion on opposing QBs - I'd consider SD much more likely a loss whereas KC should be more of a tossup. I have to disagree, Alex Smith has played much better than Rivers the last two seasons and KC has more talent and match-up problems for the Titans Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OILERMAN Posted September 4, 2013 Author Report Share Posted September 4, 2013 Not that he needs anyone to defend him but you do realize that you have 6601 more posts than he does right? And 9228 more relevant posts than he does Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctm Posted September 4, 2013 Report Share Posted September 4, 2013 As bad as the Titans were last year, they still lost 2 close games to the Colts. They must turn that around. Hard to make the playoffs when you are 3rd in the division. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OILERMAN Posted September 4, 2013 Author Report Share Posted September 4, 2013 As bad as the Titans were last year, they still lost 2 close games to the Colts. They must turn that around. Hard to make the playoffs when you are 3rd in the division. The problem is the Colts were probably going to be an easier win last year. Their off season additions have actually looked good and Luck has looked really good. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMJ Posted September 4, 2013 Report Share Posted September 4, 2013 Hard to make the playoffs when you are 3rd in the division. Looking at you Jeff! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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